AFC Playoff Picture: Breaking Down Postseason Scenarios for Week 17

Eight teams in the American Football Conference have some level of postseason status at stake in the final regular-season game of the year. It all takes place on Sunday, where six games will put the final touches on the AFC playoff picture.

The only thing we know for sure is that the New England Patriots will be the No. 1 seed and have home-field advantage all the way up to the Super Bowl, if they make it that far.

The rest depends on the following scenarios.

Week 17 AFC Scenarios

Denver Broncos clinch first-round bye with:

1. Denver win vs. Oakland OR
2. Denver tie vs. Oakland + Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR
3. Cincinnati loss OR
4. Cincinnati tie + Indianapolis win vs. Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals clinch AFC North with:

1. Cincinnati win or tie vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Cincinnati win + Denver loss or tie OR
2. Cincinnati tie + Denver loss + Indianapolis loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers clinch AFC North with:

1. Pittsburgh win vs. Cincinnati

San Diego Chargers clinch playoff spot with:

1. San Diego win vs. Kansas City OR
2. San Diego tie + Baltimore loss or tie vs. Cleveland

Baltimore Ravens clinch playoff spot with:

1. Baltimore win + San Diego loss or tie OR
2. Baltimore tie + San Diego loss

Kansas City Chiefs clinch playoff spot with:

1. Kansas City win + loss by Baltimore + loss or tie by Houston

Houston Texans clinch playoff spot with:

1. Houston win + losses by both Baltimore and San Diego

Who Will Be In and Out?

In

Denver

The Broncos' place in the postseason has long been secure, but they need to beat the Raiders on Sunday to lock up the other AFC first-round bye. Weeks ago, people would have laughed at the notion that the Raiders might beat Denver in the regular-season finale, but after the Broncos lost 37-28 to the Bengals on Monday night, there might be some doubt.

That doubt won't come from me.

The Broncos are 7-0 at home and Oakland is 0-7 on the road. Both teams will remain perfect on Sunday.

Pittsburgh

In one of four battles to crown a division winner, the Steelers are my pick to take the AFC North from the Bengals. When these two teams met in Week 14, the Bengals had no answer for the Steelers' multi-faceted attack. 

Pittsburgh put up 42 points and steamrolled Cincy. The rematch won't be a blowout win for Pittsburgh, but it'll be a victory nonetheless.

Indianapolis

Color me unimpressed when it comes to the Colts, but Andrew Luck and Co. won't need to be at the top of their games to beat the Tennessee Titans. The Titans defense ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game, and it doesn't have the secondary or the defensive line to force Luck into the bad decisions that have hurt him at times this season.

Indy will settle for the fourth spot with a comfortable win over the Titans.

Cincinnati

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Andy Dalton and the Bengals won't win the division, so the record NFL on ESPN refers to in this tweet is going to fall to 3-7.

The Bengals have already punched their ticket to the postseason thanks to the clutch win over the Broncos last week. Still, it looks like another short stay in the playoffs for Marvin Lewis' guys as a trip to Lucas Oil Stadium might be looming.

San Diego

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Somehow, it seems as if Philip Rivers finds a way to win big games in December. The Chargers have struggled a bit of late, but facing a Chiefs team that is set to start Chase Daniel, per Nate Davis of USA Today, makes it look as though the Bolts have this one laid out for them.

A very similar scenario took place last season and San Diego took care of business. Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders marvels at the Bolts' good fortune.

Out

Kansas City

Even if Alex Smith were playing, I would have leaned toward the Chargers in their battle with the Chiefs. Without the team's starting quarterback, it's hard to give Kansas City much of a chance—even playing at home.

Baltimore

The Ravens blew their shot at making the playoffs when they were made to look foolish by the Houston Texans in Week 16.

Joe Flacco played one of his worst games of the season, completing just 21 of 50 passes and throwing three interceptions. The Ravens lost 25-13, and quite honestly, the game didn't even seem that close.

Win or lose in the finale against the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore isn't going to the playoffs.

Houston

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

It would help J.J. Watt's MVP campaign if the Texans made the playoffs, but they simply need too much help. I'm picking the Ravens and Chargers to win on Sunday, thus Watt will have to settle for the Defensive Player of the Year award that he seemingly has in the bag.