Predicting the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase Field
As we prepare for the 2015 calendar year to begin, it's time to look ahead to the 2015 NASCAR season. No, I'm not just talking about the season kickoff at Daytona—I'm talking about the 2015 Chase.
That's right. The reboot of the Chase for the Sprint Cup led to nonstop drama on and off the track in 2014, so why not go ahead and look forward to the 2015 edition?
Sixteen drivers qualify to participate in the Chase, which lasts for the final 10 races of the season. The 16 drivers qualify by winning a race in the regular season or by points standings if less than 16 drivers win races. There are four elimination-style rounds in the Chase, and the championship winner is decided at the final race at Homestead.
In this list, you'll see my picks for what the field of 16 will look like after the final regular-season race: the Federated Auto Parts 400 at the Richmond International Raceway. This is not necessarily what I think the standings will look like after the Chase is complete.
Here are the 16 drivers that I expect to be the Sprint Cup standouts in 2015.
16. Austin Dillon
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Austin Dillon finished his first full year driving in the Sprint Cup Series ranked No. 20 and was the second-most impressive rookie in NASCAR.
The 24-year-old was consistent throughout 2014, but he had trouble finding his way to the front of the pack; the Richard Childress Racing driver had one pole, one top-five finish and four top 10s on the season.
Dillon, who is the first driver to take over the No. 3 car since Dale Earnhardt's tragic passing, will be able to improve on that in 2015 now that he has a full season under his belt. Some more aggressive driving, and his first Sprint Cup victory, will put Dillon into his first Chase.
15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
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In 2014, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. slid backward a bit in the standings, falling eight spots from his 19th-place finish in 2013. I predict that the 27-year-old will bounce back in style in 2015 and get his first Sprint Cup victory and Chase berth.
That's because the Roush Fenway Racing driver, who won back-to-back Nationwide Series title in 2011 and 2012, and was the 2013 NASCAR Rookie of the Year, is too talented to keep hanging in the back of the pack.
Stenhouse has been a victim of the decline in Roush Fenway Racing, but with his former teammate Carl Edwards leaving for Joe Gibbs Racing and with Greg Biffle recently turning 45, it's time for Stenhouse to take over as the star of the team.
14. Kyle Busch
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With Kevin Harvick finally getting his Chase crown in 2014, many consider 29-year-old Kyle Busch to be one of the best drivers in the Sprint Cup Series without a crown. While that may be true, I don't think that 2015 will be the younger Busch brother's year.
Kyle is coming off a 10th-place season that saw him get one win, have offseason foot surgery and experience a crew-chief change that he's not exactly thrilled about. That doesn't seem like a recipe for a championship season.
He will find his way back to the Chase, though, with at least one win throughout the season—he's too good of a driver not too. But unless Joe Gibbs Racing has an out-of-nowhere spectacular season, don't expect Kyle Busch to be the last man standing.
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13. Kyle Larson
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Kyle Larson did everything in his Rookie-of-the-Year season, except win a race, and that shouldn't be a problem for the 22-year-old new father in 2015.
Larson had 14 top fives on the season and finished 17th, one spot out of the Chase. He was particularly impressive at the end of the season, with three top-five finishs (including two runner-ups) in the first four Chase races and six top 10s in the postseason overall.
Jerry Bonkowski of Motor Sports Talk sees stardom in Larson's future:
"Larson is almost assured to break through for his first Sprint Cup win. If and when that comes, more wins will likely be sure to follow afterward. This young man has all the markings of a future Sprint Cup champion. If he can avoid the noted NASCAR sophomore season jinx, he could be a serious player in 2015.
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Go ahead and pencil Larson into your 2015 Chase bracket, NASCAR fans. He's looking like a sure thing.
12. Matt Kenseth
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Matt Kenseth was the cream of the Joe Gibbs Racing crop in 2014, and he's set up well for a solid season again in 2015.
The 42-year-old, who controversially won the championship back in 2003, despite only having one victory, had 13 top fives and 22 top 10s in his second season with JGR. Unfortunately, he couldn't recapture the success of his 2013 season, when he won an astonishing seven races and finished second in the standings.
But this veteran should find his way back into the Chase, be it due to consistency or thanks to a trip to Victory Lane. I can't see him recapturing his 2013 heroics, but Kenseth will always be one to watch.
11. Kurt Busch
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It's been 10 years since Kurt Busch won the championship, but he's still a factor on the biggest stages of the sport. After a somewhat disappointing 2014, where he finished 12th after just one win and six top fives, he's poised to have a good 2015.
Stewart-Haas Racing shook things up at the end of the 2014 season, switching up Kurt and Danica Patrick's crew chiefs for the last three races of the year. Kurt had a lot of luck with his new chief, Tony Gibson, finishing eight, seventh and 11th.
If the older Busch brother can keep his momentum with Gibson going, he should have no problem advancing to the Chase in 2015, and he could actually advance a round or two this time.
10. Carl Edwards
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Carl Edwards has made a big change in 2014, leaving Roush Fenway Racing for Joe Gibbs Racing. The 35-year-old is hoping the move pays off for him the way switching teams paid off for Kevin Harvick this season.
Edwards told Fox's Jay Glazer that nothing less than a championship will be good enough in 2015, as reported by Christopher Olmstead of Beyond the Flag:
"I plan on winning 10 races and the championship. People will be like, ‘Ah, he’s crazy.’ But if we don’t win the championship, it will not be a success. Everyone’s putting in these resources to win a championship, and that’s what we’re going to do.
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While it's good that Edwards is confident, it's unlikely that his dreams will come true so soon—after all, while he did have two wins in 2014, he only had seven top fives. Plus, it's not like Joe Gibbs Racing had a championship-caliber team this season. But Edwards should improve his consistency and will definitely find his way back into the Chase in 2015.
9. Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin has been a full-time Sprint Cup driver since 2006 and finished in the top five four times, including a third-place finish in 2014.
At the helm of the No. 11 car for Joe Gibbs Racing, and with a new crew chief Dave Rogers in his camp, Hamlin is hoping to finally have his championship season in 2015.
Bob Pockrass of Sporting News reports that Hamlin and Rogers could be a fantastic match:
"Hamlin can appear to be a head case at times, and Rogers’ experiences with him as well as with Busch should allow him to keep Hamlin focused. He won’t be afraid to tell Hamlin what he needs to do, and Hamlin has the respect for him to listen.
One thing Hamlin said about the switch a few weeks ago cannot be ignored. Hamlin has gotten in the No. 18 car at tests where Busch couldn’t attend. Hamlin’s eyes light up when talking about those tests and how fast Rogers’ cars seem to be.
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Personally, I see Hamlin falling back a bit in 2015—he was lucky that some steady-yet-unspectacular racing was enough to get him through to the final round of the Chase at Homestead this year. But he will make the Chase, and if Pockrass is right and his relationship with Rogers is a success, he could qualify much higher than ninth.
8. Kasey Kahne
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Kasey Kahne was given a three-year contract extension at the end of 2014 at Hendrick Motorsports, a move that was a surprise to many considering his lackluster season where he made the Chase but finished 15th.
But with new crew chief Keith Rodden in his corner, Kahne could receive the spark he needs to do better than the one-win, three top-five season that he had in 2014.
Kahne is often the forgotten man in the loaded Hendrick Motorsports team, with Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon stealing the spotlight. But the 34-year-old has a lot of talent, as his fourth-place finish in 2012 proves, and with the great Hendrick cars, he should find himself at least in the top 10 in 2015.
7. Ryan Newman
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Ryan Newman was the biggest beneficiary of this new Chase format, managing to maneuver his way to a runner-up finish, despite the fact that he didn't win a single pole or race throughout 2014.
In his first season with Richard Childress Racing, Newman had five top fives and 16 top 10s. He drove his absolute best during the Chase, where he notched three top fives and six top 10s.
However, Newman is going to have to try and avoid the runner-up curse that has plagued many second-place finishers of Sprint Cups past, and to do that he's going to have to find his way into Victory Lane in 2015. With Newman's talent and his camaraderie with his RCR team, I expect to see him do just that.
6. Jeff Gordon
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Jeff Gordon proved in 2014 that he has plenty of great racing left in him, and there's no reason to think that he won't be right back in the hunt in 2015.
In 2014, Gordon had four victories, 14 top fives and 23 top 10s and was No. 1 in the standings for a large portion of the year. There was a lot of talk about him winning his fifth Sprint Cup championship, his first since 2001. Unfortunately, he missed advancing to the final round of the Chase by one point and finished the year ranked sixth.
I expect Mr. 24 to have another great season, although his 2014 consistency will be hard to match. Still, the 43-year-old with a bad back is one of the best racers around, and he'll be mixing it up with the best again in 2015.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. had the best start to the 2014 season he could have imagined, winning the Daytona 500 and then finishing as the runner-up in his next two races. He ended the season with four wins, 12 top fives and 20 top 10s, by far one of the best seasons of his career.
Earnhardt Jr. finished the year ranked eighth after a disappointing Chase that saw him eliminated after the second round, but he finished the season in style with a victory at Martinsville and two top 10s in the final four races.
Despite the fact that Junior is facing the 2015 season without his longtime crew chief Steve Letarte, who is going to NBC to work as a commentator, he should be in the mix for his first championship again in '15.
If he can develop instant chemistry with his new crew chief, Greg Ives, he'll be a top-five driver in 2015 for sure. Junior nation, your hopes for a title are still alive and well.
4. Kevin Harvick
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Kevin Harvick will be the driver to beat in 2014, after his walk-off win at Homestead in Miami gave him the first championship title of his career. Now, the 39-year-old has to figure out how to follow that up.
With Harvick's team staying the same and carrying momentum from his obviously fabulous Chase, where he won three races, including the final two, I don't see him losing much ground. Overall, Harvick had five wins, eight poles, 14 top fives and 20 top 10s in 2014. During the regular-season races he led the most laps but wasn't often able to close, but he clearly solved that problem during the Chase.
With a great Stewart-Haas team surrounding him and a new stage in his career officially launched, I expect the No. 4 driver to find himself in contention again in 2015.
3. Brad Keselowski
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Brad Keselowski ended the 2014 season as one of the most hated drivers on the Sprint Cup circuit, but don't expect that to slow him down in 2015—in fact, it will probably fuel him.
As reported by Jordan Bianchi of SB Nation, Keselowski refused to apologize for his aggressive driving style, even after his wreck with Jeff Gordon during the Chase led to a post-race fight and a lot of criticism; Keselowski said:
"No I don't feel bad. The opportunity was there for other individuals to get out of it scott-free and they didn't capitalize on it. I hated that it ruined their day, but I don't feel bad for making the move. I have no need and feel no desire to apologize for laying it all out on the line trying to win a race.
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Keselowski is a polarizing character in NASCAR circles, but his talent is impossible to deny. He struggled a bit in 2013 after he won the championship in 2012, but then he had six wins, 17 top fives and 20 top 10s in 2014.
While those numbers will be nearly impossible to top in 2015, expect for the Team Penske driver to still be one of the best drivers of the season, make the Chase with ease and go for broke once he gets there.
2. Jimmie Johnson
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Well, 2014 was a disappointing season for six-time champion Jimmie Johnson. He had four wins, 11 top fives, 20 top 10s and finished in 11th place.
Sure, that might sound like a career season for any other driver, but for Johnson it was his first time finishing lower than sixth place in his 13 years as a full-time Sprint Cup driver. However, don't expect for Johnson to experience another down season in 2015—he's simply too talented and competitive for that.
As reported by Chris Estrada of Motor Sports Talk, Johnson's so-called down year made gave him some perspective and hunger; he told NASCAR AMERICA’s Kelli Stavast before the Sprint Cup Awards Ceremony:
"[Not winning the title] just makes me hungry to be in that spotlight again. But it also helps me appreciate what we’ve accomplished. It isn’t easy to win the championship in this sport, and the fact that we’ve won six and have been the one honored is really special to me.
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I'm not sure that Johnson will win a seventh championship in 2015, but I do know that he'll be one of the top contenders heading into the Chase.
1. Joey Logano
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Joey Logano had a breakout season in 2014, with five wins, 16 top fives and 22 top 10s. He was one of the four remaining drivers in contention at the championship race in Homestead, and if it wasn't for a late-race pit-crew snafu, he might have pushed Kevin Harvick for the victory.
Now, all eyes will be on the 24-year-old to see if his 2014 season was a fluke or if he will turn into a perennial championship contender. As you can tell from this ranking, I think it's going to be the latter.
Remember, these are my rankings for the Chase qualification standings, not the final Chase standings, so I'm not saying that Logano will definitely win his first Chase title in 2015.
However, I do expect him to have another standout season leading up to the Chase, with at least three wins and 15 top fives. More-so, with his pit-crew problems hopefully a thing of the past, he should be able to continue his incredible week-in, week-out consistency.
Logano is a part of a great Team Penske group, and his relationship with teammate Brad Keselowski is one of the best in NASCAR. All of this sets up for Logano to follow up his breakout season with an even better one in 2015.
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