NFL Picks and Predictions Week 17: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Much like a team getting hot going into the postseason, your boy—the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate—is on an absolute roll.

I went 12-4 against the spread in Week 16, which means I'm now 23-8-1 over the last two weeks.

I also once again went 5-0 in the Hilton SuperContest (where I'm sponsored by the fine folks at OddsShark.com). I'm 10-0 over the past two weeks there, giving me a shot to win $15,000 in the MiniContest (which is based on results over the last three weeks of the season).

So yeah, this is shaping up as a big weekend to build momentum heading into January.

I've always believed that the final few weeks of the regular season and the postseason present the best opportunity to make money wagering on the NFL, and that theory is once again proving correct. 

I am feeling real damn good. My confidence level is high. It's time to make that money.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 17.

Total Season ATS: 133-103-5 

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 42-38

Cleveland at Baltimore

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Line: Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)

Fact: The Baltimore Ravens must win (and have the Chargers lose) to have any hope of qualifying for the postseason.

Fact: The wheels have completely come off on the 2014 Cleveland Browns, who have lost four in a row after starting the season 7-4.

Fact: The Ravens are coming off a crushing loss in Houston and will be looking to take out their aggression on the Browns.

Fact: The Browns are starting Connor Shaw at quarterback in place of the injured Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel, and Shaw couldn't beat the University of Tennessee in 2013.

Fact: This game is being played in Baltimore, which means Shaw's first NFL start comes on the road against a team that is competing for a playoff berth.

Sometimes, it's just that simple. The Ravens will lay a whupping (think 27-3) on the Browns and do their part to get into the AFC playoff field.

(And yes, Ravens fans: I think the Chargers will lose, so your team will make the playoffs.)

The Pick: Baltimore (-13)

Jacksonville at Houston

John Raoux/Associated Press

The Line: Jacksonville at Houston (-9.5)

Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars finished 4-12 but went 4-4 over their final eight games to theoretically "build momentum" heading in 2014.

The problem with that school of thought was that they still didn't have a quarterback—that is, of course, until they selected Blake Bortles with the third overall pick in this past May's draft. With a rookie passer under center for the vast majority of the season, the Jaguars once again struggled under coach Gus Bradley, and their record sits at 3-12 heading into Week 17.

But with a win on Sunday in Houston, the Jaguars will finish 4-12 yet again—and will have emerged victorious in three of their final five games to do so. That will undoubtedly build momentum heading into 2015 and Bortles' second season. 

Expect that to happen. Even though the line is big, the Texans will be rolling out Case Keenum at quarterback. And while he is a competent option, he's not that good, and the Jaguars pass rush will harass him all game.

Look for Bortles and company to not only cover the spread but to win the game outright.

Rejoice, Duval. The future is bright for your Jaguars.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+9.5)

San Diego at Kansas City

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

The Line: San Diego at Kansas City (-3)

This past week, it's safe to assume that most people were excited about the holiday and spending time with family.

But me? I was more pumped to take the Kansas City Chiefs at minus-three over the San Diego Chargers.

And then, news came down on Friday that Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith would miss the contest with a lacerated spleen, which left backup Chase Daniel to start against San Diego in Week 17 for the second consecutive year.

If you remember correctly, Daniel and the Kansas City backups nearly beat the Chargers in the season finale last year, but San Diego pulled off an overtime win to qualify for the postseason. Now, the Chargers face a similar task, needing only to beat Daniel and the Chiefs to make the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

I'll be honest: I was crushed when I saw Smith would miss the game. My initial reaction was to change my pick to San Diego. I even tweeted that the Chargers would absolutely win with Daniel replacing Smith.

But then I remembered that Smith hasn't thrown a touchdown pass to a receiver all season. I realized that Daniel could easily run Kansas City's basic passing offense. And I surmised that with a backup quarterback starting, Chiefs coach Andy Reid will probably lean on the ground game with star back Jamaal Charles.

So I'm doing it, damn it. I'm rolling with Daniel and the Chiefs to knock the Chargers out of playoff contention.

May God have mercy on my soul.

The Pick: Kansas City (-3)

NY Jets at Miami

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The Line: NY Jets at Miami (-6)

I've gone back and forth on this game several times—I actually think it's one of the toughest of the week to handicap.

On one end, you have the Miami Dolphins and their choke-artist head coach, Joe Philbin. Three things in life are guaranteed: death, taxes and the Philbin-coached Dolphins disappointing in a big spot.

On the other, you have the New York Jets and their dead-man-walking head coach, Rex Ryan. Ryan is a mortal lock to be fired on Monday, and the question is whether his team will show up one last time to send him out as a winner.

As you can see, backing a side in this game is like trying to decide whether to stick your hand into a working lawnmower or a blast furnace.

Ultimately, I'm rolling with the Dolphins because the game doesn't mean anything. If a playoff berth was on the line (like it was when these two teams met in Week 17 last year), I'd obviously roll against Philbin and Miami. But with nothing at stake, I'll grab the more talented team playing at home and lay the points.

The Pick: Miami (-6)

Chicago at Minnesota

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

The Line: Chicago at Minnesota (-6.5)

Ladies and gentlemen, I hope you are aware of the impending greatness of Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

While his numbers (13 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions) don't scream out "superstar," his many positive attributes do. He's cool, calm and collected under pressure, saving his best for when it matters the most. That's what I value the most in a quarterback. For more on Bridgewater's emergence, check out this piece from Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey.

It's time for Bridgewater to author the signature game of his rookie campaign, and there's no crappier defense to do it against than the Chicago Bears (ranked 30th overall). Expect Bridgewater to slice and dice Chicago's Swiss cheese unit en route to a double-digit Vikings victory.

And oh yeah, the fact that Jay Cutler is once again starting for the Bears is like a late present from the gambling gods. Once Cutler throws his second interception of the first half (complete with his full-on "I don't give a damn" scowl), it'll feel like Christmas all over again!

The Pick: Minnesota (-6.5)

Buffalo at New England

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Line: Buffalo at New England

Ah, Week 17. You magnificent animal, you.

Only you provide us with contests like this: the recently-eliminated-from-AFC-playoff-contention Buffalo Bills going up against the recently-clinched-AFC-home-field-advantage New England Patriots.

So, to summarize: Neither team has anything to play for—so it's of course appropriate that Vegas has assigned the spread at Patriots minus-5.5, which is its way of throwing its hands in the air and saying "We don't know, either."

While my initial inclination was to grab Buffalo with the points, I remembered that New England's backups will probably approach this contest with the intensity of the Super Bowl. And I also remembered that the Bills will once again trot out Kyle Orton as their quarterback, which is like asking to lose.

I like New England with the points—even if Jimmy Garoppolo plays the majority of the game in place of Tom Brady. 

The Pick: New England (-5.5)

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Line: Philadelphia at NY Giants (-3)

Last week, I told you that the Washington Redskins—underdogs of more than a touchdown—would beat the Philadelphia Eagles outright. (You all don't need to thank me at once—it's OK.)

My thought process was that Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez stinks and this team was bound to collapse with him at the helm. So it should surprise no one that I'm picking the Giants to beat the Sanchez-led Eagles on Sunday.

Simply put, the Giants are the better football team right now, and that's both a compliment to Tom Coughlin's team and an insult to the Eagles. After 12 games this season, the Eagles were 9-3, and the Giants were 3-9. Now, the Eagles are 9-6, and the Giants are 6-9.

Plus, the Giants have freakishly talented rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who appears to be the love child of Jerry Rice and Lynn Swann. After getting shredded in back-to-back weeks by Dez Bryant and DeSean Jackson, how in the world are the Eagles going to cover Beckham?

Spoiler: They won't.

Beckham, Eli Manning and the Giants will end the 2014 campaign on a four-game winning streak, building momentum toward an all-important 2015 season. 

And the Eagles will end the 2014 campaign on a four-game losing streak, ramping up speculation that the quarterback of the 2015 iteration isn't currently on the roster.

The Pick: NY Giants (-3)

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The Line: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+4)

If the last few months have taught me anything, it's that I despise this year's iterations of the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

You know what sucked? Going into Christmas week with a negative balance on my gambling account after my New Orleans Super Bowl futures bet officially went down as a loss once it was eliminated from playoff contention. Thanks, Drew Brees and Sean Payton! (And yes, I'm probably the idiot for betting the Saints to win the Super Bowl in the first place, but hey, I never like to let the facts get in the way of a good story.)

"Sorry, babe. I know you really wanted those earrings for Christmas, but Rob Ryan can't coordinate defense to save his life!"

You know what else has sucked? All the times I've backed the Buccaneers this season, only to have them fall apart in grotesque fashion and fail to cover the spread. Seriously, the Bucs are so bad that they've actually been able to defy math on multiple occasions.

The fact that I have to back one of these teams is more than a little nauseating, but since I have to do it, I'll grab the home team getting the points.

This is it, Lovie Smith and Tampa Bay. One final ride together in 2014.

I look forward to you letting me down once more.

The Pick: Tampa Bay (+4)

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7)

As regular readers of this column know, I subscribe to the 80/20 theory, which states that if 80 percent (or more) of the general public is backing a particular squad, it's best to go the other way, because the casinos didn't build themselves and all that jazz.

Well, Week 17 is an entirely different animal than the rest of the season. Playoff berths and seedings are sometimes already locked up, making it tough for the public to throw its full support behind any one team.

Case in point: Not one team has been backed by more than 80 percent of the public this week. Usually, there are at least three, but there isn't even one this week.

The closest, though, is the Indianapolis Colts at minus-seven in Tennessee against the woeful Titans.

While Tennessee will be starting the dreadful Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, the Colts could pull their star passer, Andrew Luck, at any moment. The Colts don't have much to play for, making it tough to lay a touchdown on the road.

Plus, the public loves Indianapolis, and you know what that means.

The Pick: Tennessee (+7)

Dallas at Washington

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The Line: Dallas at Washington (+6)

Ah, yes! It's yet another Week 17 contest where we're unsure how long a particular team will play its starters! Go to hell, Week 17!

The 11-4 Dallas Cowboys have already clinched the NFC East, and while it's possible they can still earn a first-round bye, the most likely scenario has them locking up the NFC's third seed and hosting a home playoff game next weekend.

If results of other games aren't going Dallas' way, why should the Cowboys risk the health of integral starters like Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray? It wouldn't make any sense.

While it would be nice for Dallas to send the Redskins home as losers, there's just too much unknown for me to feel comfortable pulling the trigger on a road favorite giving six points.

Give me the Redskins to cover the spread with confidence.

The Pick: Washington (+6)

Carolina at Atlanta

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

The Line: Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)

The 6-8-1 Carolina Panthers! The 6-9 Atlanta Falcons! The NFC South title game!

Yikes. Is this real life?

Yes, it is. Unfortunately, one of these two sorry teams will qualify for the NFC postseason and host a playoff game next weekend, despite finishing with a sub-.500 record.

And I believe that team will be the Falcons.

Atlanta is playing at home, and Matt Ryan should have his full arsenal of weapons in the passing attack. While the Panthers are playing well (they've won three straight), they ultimately aren't very good. 

If the game were in Carolina, I would take the Panthers. But it's in Atlanta, so I'm taking the Falcons. It's that simple, homie.

Plus, with Atlanta running back Steven Jackson expected to miss the tilt with a quad injury, rookie rusher Devonta Freeman will see the bulk of the carries in Atlanta's backfield—and that is a good thing for Falcons fans. Expect Freeman to top 100 yards rushing and score at least one touchdown as the Falcons lock up the dreadful NFC South.

The Pick: Atlanta (-3.5)

Oakland at Denver

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Line: Oakland at Denver (-14)

The Denver Broncos have to be smarting. 

They were just embarrassed on Monday Night Football by the Cincinnati Bengals, 37-28. And by virtue of that loss, the Broncos lost out on home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs—with that honor going to the rival New England Patriots.

But Peyton Manning and company have reason to smile, as they draw the Raiders in Week 17 with a chance to get back on track.

Because Cincinnati doesn't play until Sunday night, the Broncos must beat Oakland to assure themselves a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. That means Denver's proverbial foot will be on the gas throughout Sunday's tilt. And that's bad news for the Raiders.

Expect a vintage Manning performance: 300-plus passing yards and no fewer than three touchdowns. The Broncos will roll by at least 17 points.

The Pick: Denver (-14)

Detroit at Green Bay

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

The Line: Detroit at Green Bay (-7.5)

I'm sorry, Lions fans...I don't believe in your team.

Don't get that twisted, though, because I respect the hell out of what your team has accomplished this season. Coach Jim Caldwell has done a phenomenal job in his first year on the Detroit sideline. The Lions have won games they've typically lost in the past, and quarterback Matthew Stafford has generally been cool under pressure.

But I still don't believe the Lions are good enough to truly show up in a big spot.

And Sunday's game against the rival Packers—at Lambeau Field, with the NFC North title (and a probable first-round bye in the NFC postseason) on the line—definitely qualifies as a big spot.

When the chips are down, give me Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy over Stafford and Caldwell any day of the week and twice on Sunday. I don't care that the Lions defense suffocated the Packers back in Week 3. That was Week 3, and this is now. That was in Motown, and this will be in Green Bay.

And oh yeah, the Lions haven't beaten the Packers in Wisconsin since George H.W. Bush was in the office.

You're damn right I'm picking Green Bay.

The Pick: Green Bay (-7.5)

St. Louis at Seattle

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Line: St. Louis at Seattle (-12)

The Seattle Seahawks are once again emerging as the NFL's juggernaut and will grab home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a victory on Sunday.

The St. Louis Rams are set to complete another disappointing campaign and were blown out last week at home by the Giants.

The Seahawks are coming off a prime-time beatdown of the playoff-bound Arizona Cardinals.

The spread of this game is Seattle minus-12.

You know what to do.

The Pick: St. Louis (+12)

Arizona at San Francisco

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Line: Arizona at San Francisco (-6.5)

To my fellow members of #TeamDegenerate: You know I'm always honest with you.

I have no idea what the hell is going to happen in this game.

The Cardinals will be starting the horrendous Ryan Lindley at quarterback. At this point, he should actually petition to have his name legally changed to "The Horrendous Ryan Lindley." It has a nice ring to it, don't you think? 

I would love to just blindly back the team facing Lindley, but this week, that team is the San Francisco 49ers, who are well-aware that their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, will be out of town by the middle of next week. The 49ers also collapsed last week against San Diego, so it's impossible to predict what kind of effort we'll see from the home team on Sunday.

When things are this up in the air, there's only one thing to do, yo: Grab the points and don't look back.

Even with The Horrendous Ryan Lindley at quarterback for the underdog.

The Pick: Arizona (+6.5)

Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Wade Payne/Associated Press

The Line: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Yes, I am aware that the Bengals showed up and won in a big spot last Monday night against Denver.

And yes, this makes me even more confident that they won't do it again this week!

So, in that vein, I once again present you with America's (and by America's, I mean #TeamDegenerate's) favorite game: The Andy Dalton Big-Game Checklist!

Is this a big game for the Bengals? Check!

Is the game being played in prime time? Check!

Is the game being played against one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL? Check!

If you want to wager your hard-earned money on Dalton and Marvin Lewis coming up aces in back-to-back weeks in prime time, that's your hill to die on, playa. As for me, I'll roll with the Steelers at home to win the AFC North.

And when Dalton throws a crushing interception in the first quarter, you'll be able to hear me laughing all the way from Queens, New York.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread

1. NY Giants (-3 vs. Philadelphia)
2. Jacksonville (+9.5 at Houston)
3. Baltimore (-13.5 vs. Cleveland)
4. Minnesota (-6.5 vs. Chicago)
5. Kansas City (-3 vs. San Diego)

Best Under Bets of the Week

1. Philadelphia at NY Giants (under 53 points)
2. Arizona at San Francisco (under 36.5 points)

Best Over Bets of the Week

1. Detroit at Green Bay (over 49 points)
2. Chicago at Minnesota (over 44 points)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!