2015 NFL Mock Draft: Complete 1st-Round Outlook Heading into Week 17
The final week of the NFL's regular season is upon us, which means talks of sugarplums, your Aunt Susan's wine habit and your latest Christmas toy that will be thrown away in two days will soon give way to all that's about to come.
While most will be fixated on playoff implications, seedings and the like, let's instead shift gears here. The bottom of the NFL barrel deserves love too. Or, at the very least, some snickering about their misfortunes as they slowly await the sweet release of Week 17's final gun.
For most of those teams, their front offices have moved on from the action on the field to the players they can bring in to improve it. Free agency will generate wild swings and even wilder contracts, but the only thing we can semi-sanely project is draft positioning. And—yes—the draft picks in those positions.
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These are the roughest of rough cuts, and the yearly exercise in futility that is mocking drafts will continue through April. But for now, let's take a look at how things would shake out if the festivities took place today.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Things we know: Marcus Mariota will go No. 1 overall in April.
Things we don't: Who will take Marcus Mariota.
That about encapsulates the almost nonexistent tension regarding the top overall selection. Regardless of which team sits atop the board in four months' time, its decision is already made. Mariota may never reach the heights he has at Oregon, but his impeccable resume makes him a franchise cornerstone too good to pass up.
On the surface, Mariota is the perfect modern-day NFL quarterback. He's Russell Wilson plus six inches. We'll have to see how he'll handle throwing into tighter professional windows after enjoying the touchdown bonanza that is the Chip Kelly offense, and odds are there will be some adjustment needed. But we're talking about a no-brainer here.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Winston's draft stock is murkier for all the reasons you may have read about once or six thousand times. He's had myriad off-the-field issues that have crept into his on-field performance, as Winston's interception rate skyrocketed as his touchdown rate plummeted as a sophomore.
It's hard to discern which player Winston really is. Is he the dude who had arguably the finest freshman season for a quarterback in college football history? Or is he the mistake-prone goofball whose decision-making seems as poor on the field as it is off?
These are decisions that are thankfully above my pay grade. Winston's physical tools are honestly too great for me to have him any lower than No. 2, especially with the Titans' dumpster fire of a quarterback situation.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DL, USC
If we were handing out superlatives for the 2015 class, Williams is Most Likely to Succeed. The USC star is Richard Seymour reincarnated. He's a force of nature against the run and pass, able to shift positions on the fly depending on the defensive alignment.
Assuming he's not sent packing, Williams is the exact type of player Gus Bradley's defense thrived with in Seattle. The Jaguars' main issues remain on offense, but their heavy investment on that side in last year's draft makes Williams the likelier selection.
4. New York Jets: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
The Jets would prefer Winston slips here. I would prefer Winston slips here, if only because the media circus it'd create would make my job a whole lot easier. Fans would prefer Winston slips here, mostly because the only way to make a reviled player more hated is by moving him to a major media market.
Oh, Shane Ray? He's an excellent consolation prize who will help the Jets rebuild their defensive front seven. We'll need to see whether Rex Ryan's replacement (we'll assume he's fired here for the sake of sanity) uses a 3-4 base alignment, but Ray is talented enough off the edge to fit either scheme.
5. Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
I'm far from sold on Derek Carr as a franchise quarterback, but the Raiders need to give him better help than the freak show he had at the skill positions this season. Oakland's running backs and receiving corps were so bad that their best players at each position (RB Latavius Murray, WR Andre Holmes) were dudes like six people knew played professional football coming into the season.
Cooper is the best receiver in college football, an absolute joy to watch and a potential perennial Pro Bowler. Everyone just needs to hope Cooper doesn't fall victim to the Oakland wide receiver curse. The recent results are far from promising.
6. Washington: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Nearly everything in the nation's capital is terrible, starting at the top with ownership and going down to the dudes who work at the popcorn stand. (In all fairness, I'm just kidding about popcorn stand dude; he could be a great guy.)
No unit is a better representation of Washington's tattered franchise than its offensive line. Aloof, incompetent and seemingly toxic from a personality standpoint, the line has allowed Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins to get crushed all season. Its lack of accountability after boneheaded mistakes has been a two-season running gag.
Scherff, a leader and an excellent player who should be a good right tackle, won't fix everything by himself. He'll be a start, though.
7. Chicago Bears: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
List of Bears' defensive needs: defensive end, defensive tackle, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback, second cornerback, strong safety, free safety, defensive coordinator, secondary coach, defensive line coach, grief counselor for those who stick around from 2014.
There honestly is no wrong answer here. If you'd rather the Bears take Alabama safety Landon Collins, sure, that's by all means A-OK. (Though, I'd caution you to look at the Tide's recent history of producing pro safeties.)
Gregory is the best remaining player and a pass-rushing menace who will help take pressure off Lamarr Houston, who struggled before suffering a torn ACL.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
The Falcons' yearly quest to field a competent pass rush continues here with Beasley, who has turned in 11 sacks this season going into Clemson's bowl game. Beasley is one of a cluster of players in this general range that also includes Florida's Dante Fowler and Washington's Shaq Thompson.
Whoever winds up impressing most in workouts will establish himself as the clear answer in April. For now, Beasley looks like the best all-around fit.
9. Minnesota Vikings: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Teddy Bridgewater is well on his way to proving doubters wrong, looking like he'll at the very least develop into an above-average starting quarterback. Now it's time for the Vikings to help keep him upright.
Ogbuehi lacks the polish of Scherff, but he's more physically gifted and likelier to wind up a starting left tackle over the long term. Minnesota needs desperately to move that starting job away from Matt Kalil, who has regressed the last two seasons after making the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Kalil can still open the season on the left side while Ogbuehi gets his bearings, before seeing if a move to the right side can resuscitate his career.
10. New York Giants: Shaq Thompson, OLB, New York Giants
Selecting someone who's a hybrid like Thompson would probably mean a switch away from Perry Fewell's base 4-3, but, really, who cares? The defense has fallen apart across the board under Fewell in 2014, and the Giants may clean house across their coaching staff as a result.
Thompson is a versatile talent who desperately needs to put on weight. Don't be surprised if he shows up to the combine with an added 15-20 pounds to impress scouts. If the extra weight doesn't take away from his defensive back-esque quickness, it's possible he supplants Ray as the top hybrid talent off the board. Remember, Dion Jordan leapfrogged into the No. 3 overall spot a couple years ago.
We'll need to see that extra weight in action to make a more sound assessment.
11. New Orleans Saints: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
The Saints need to improve their pass rush regardless of whether they retain Rex Ryan next season, and Fowler is a good first step. His raw physical tools are off the charts, and his motor never dies; he's not a physical freak who is going to rest on his laurels.
Schematic preference may come into play here again should New Orleans move to a more standard alignment. Fowler is nonetheless a solid placeholder who will go in this range and maybe even higher.
12. St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
No matter who the Rams take in this scenario, it's a bit of a reach. Their biggest needs are at positions where the best player is already gone or the talent well isn't deep enough to justify selecting at No. 12. It's possible they trade down, but more likely a suitor emerges by April.
Parker feels like a strong candidate. He missed the first seven games of 2014 with a broken toe but has top-10 talent when healthy. In five games since his return, Parker's made 35 receptions for 735 yards and five touchdowns.
The Rams whiffed the last time they rolled the dice on a receiver with Tavon Austin, but Parker is a much safer bet assuming he stays healthy. Also: Watch the quarterback position here if someone emerges from the non-Winston/Mariota pack.
13. Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
The math's simple: The Browns desperately need help defending the run. Shelton is a mammoth, smart run defender who will require multiple blockers on most plays. The Browns should make the obvious call if Shelton's available at No. 13.
14. San Francisco 49ers: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The 49ers need to revamp their offensive line, and Peat's potential here is obvious. He's listed at 6'6" and 315 pounds, and the Stanford product will probably have added a little bit to that frame come next September. His agility and pass-blocking ability are top-notch, more than good enough to project as a long-term left tackle.
Stanford's down season and Peat's own struggles with penalties have left his draft stock in a little bit of flux. Impress at the combine and in individual workouts, and Peat will remind evaluators why he came into 2014 considered a top-10 lock.
15. Houston Texans: La'El Collins, OT, LSU
Collins is more of a right tackle than a left-side anchor. He's a brute as a run-blocker, playing whistle to whistle with a promising combination of strength and athleticism.
That said, Collins has the quickness to convince teams in the draft process he can become an anchor. At the very least, he could be this year's Zack Martin, who was drafted by the Cowboys as a tackle before finding a Pro Bowl calling as a guard.
16. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): Landon Collins, S, Alabama
There is roughly a 0.4 percent chance Collins drops out of the top 15, but it's just the way it worked out in this scenario. The Browns don't even have a massive need in this spot. I'm mostly using this spot as a placeholder, knowing it'd be ridiculous to drop Collins further.
17. Kansas City Chiefs: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
Green-Beckham will be perhaps the most interesting player to project if he leaves school early. Once the top recruit in the nation, the talented wideout's future hangs in the balance after a controversy-filled career at Missouri and a short stop at Oklahoma.
Few deny his raw talent. Comparisons to Calvin Johnson don't get thrown around often, if only because players like Megatron and DGB are once-in-a-blue-moon physical specimens. There is a legitimate chance Beckham's career flames out before it even begins. There's an equally strong chance he's a Dez Bryant reincarnate.
The Chiefs need to take the chance to improve their woeful receiving corps.
18. Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
East Lansing is a first-round factory for cornerbacks, so it shouldn't be a surprise Waynes is the first at his position off the board. In most years, Waynes would be a borderline first-round prospect, but the dearth of elite talent will push him a bit higher.
The Dolphins are one of the NFL's better pass defenses, but they're relying on two players (Cortland Finnegan and Brent Grimes) who are past their 30th birthday. The cupboard needs restocking before Grimes, a Pro Bowler each of the last two seasons, starts showing major slippage.
19. Baltimore Ravens: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
The Ravens secondary has fallen apart in 2014, but that's mostly due to injury. The team's biggest need will become a strength next season when everyone returns healthy. Or, at the very least, it will become something that doesn't need filled in the first round.
Baltimore's wide receiving corps, on the surface a strength, could become a major weakness. Torrey Smith is a free agent, and age is the one thing Steve Smith can't beat the holy hell out of. I'd bet on both Smiths returning for 2015, but nabbing Strong here gives the Ravens their first true No. 1 wideout since Anquan Boldin's prime.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Hey, guys. Don't know if you know this or not, but Chip Kelly used to coach at Oregon. It's true. I looked it up on Netscape. Not sure if you know this either, but Ifo Ekpre-Olomu plays at Oregon. No, I know there are two Oregon colleges in the Pac-12. I cross-referenced them. It's the same one.
Guess what? Chip Kelly now coaches the Eagles. Eagles fans would probably be willing to sever their foot to never see Bradley Fletcher in their uniform again. Bradley Fletcher plays cornerback. As does Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.
Hmm.
21. Carolina Panthers: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.)
Flowers has all the makings of a player who will vault up draft boards as the process continues. Listed at 6'6" and 325 pounds, he is a mammoth human being with above-average agility who has left tackle potential at the next level.
The Panthers last May took a chance on another raw, but talented player in Kelvin Benjamin. We've seen how that's worked out so far. It's possible Flowers never develops into the anchor left tackle the Panthers need to replace Jordan Gross and keep Cam Newton upright. Like Benjamin, though, their roster is so depleted and the upside is so high, they have to take him.
22. San Diego Chargers: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
The Chargers have needs on both lines. Their recent draft history is littered with misses on the offensive side, where 2013 first-rounder D.J. Fluker looks like a marginal starter at best. They might roll the dice here with another offensive tackle like Tyler Sambrailo or Ronnie Stanley.
It's more likely, though, that they'll look to improve an anemic run defense. Goldman has been a bright spot on an inconsistent Seminoles front seven, and he provides the strength and versatility San Diego looks for in its linemen.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
Year after year, the Steelers' first-round draft pick seems preordained before he steps to the podium. From Ryan Shazier to Jarvis Jones to Devin DeCastro and on down the line, even the most unconnected draft analyst can make sense out of Pittsburgh's planning.
That's mostly because year after year, the Steelers emphasize good football players over stunning measurables. Holliman would be the latest to fit that mold. The sophomore safety led FBS with 14 interceptions this season and on paper looks like the free-wheeling free safety who could become Troy Polamalu's long-term fit.
Polamalu's contract situation makes it a little difficult to move him, but that's not much of a problem. Holliman needs developmental time to work.
24. Indianapolis Colts: Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
While D'Qwell Jackson's tackle numbers look impressive on paper, his age was showing last season in Cleveland and he's been worse this season. Jackson is no longer quick enough to make plays in the passing game. He's still an excellent run defender and will probably survive on guile into his mid-30s, but the Colts need to find a real difference-maker.
McKinney has the tools to become an instant starter. He has well-above-average size (6'5", 249 pounds) and is quick enough to make plays on the outside. Even if McKinney struggles to grab the starting spot in camp, Jackson is a well-regarded teammate who can help bring him along.
25. Cincinnati Bengals: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Stanley is young and inexperienced, which makes him the perfect fit for a Cincinnati offensive line already teeming with options but a little long in the tooth. Andrew Whitworth turned 33 earlier this month, and the rest of the line will get thinner from a depth perspective as the Bengals try keeping their cap sheet clean.
Stanley has been impressive when pitted against elite defensive linemen, most notably Leonard Williams. Don't be surprised if he slides up as the process progresses.
26. Detroit Lions: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The Lions have a keeper in second-year corner Darius Slay, but their cap sheet remains lean. They need to continue building their strengths. And, sadly, 34-year-old Rashean Mathis isn't going to be one of them for very much longer.
Johnson is mostly a minus against the run, but he projects as an excellent cover corner with above-average size and quickness. Johnson and Slay could be the foundation of a deep, young secondary with Glover Quin developing into a star.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
The Cowboys love DeMarco Murray. Sure he loves being in Dallas. That's great. The pair had their first successful season together in 2014, and the temptation to ride the good vibes is strong. It's also stupid. Running backs are fungible commodities. Murray, who is blitzing the rest of the league in rushing yards and may top 400 carries this week, will be looking for foundational money.
The Cowboys don't have it to offer. They're cap-strapped and kicking the can down the road into an ugly bottoming that's coming in a couple years. Gordon is young, explosive and doesn't have an injury history. He's also going to be on the lower rung of a first-round rookie scale contract.
It may hurt, but the Cowboys have to make the frugal decision.
28. Green Bay Packers: Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
The Packers already have an embarrassment of pass-catching riches, but it'd be a hell of a time to see Funchess in a Jimmy Graham-like role in this offense. I'm still not sold Funchess has the top-end speed to be a wide receiver full time at the next level. His numbers dipped significantly with the move this past season, and I'd describe him as more quick than fast.
Add him to a Packers team already filled with options, though, and look out.
29. Arizona Cardinals: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
The Cardinals have boasted an elite defense each of the last two seasons but eventually need to stop building their linebacking corps around players born in the early 1980s. Floyd is a blur of an athlete with excellent first-step rushing ability off the edge, and his relatively slim build won't be as much of a problem at the outside linebacker spot.
30. Denver Broncos: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
This is a reach, and the Broncos have mortgaged their future to the point I doubt they care about three years from now. John Elway's thrown all of his eggs in the Win Peyton a Super Bowl basket. That said, I've seen Brock Osweiler throw a football. He is not the future. Not even close. Hundley has a ton of physical gifts and has been productive at the highest levels of college football. I'd rather bank my future on him than Osweiler.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
If the Seahawks are going to move on from Marshawn Lynch, why not take the running back with the most Lynchian tendencies? Gurley's recovery from ACL surgery will take time, and it's possible he may not be ready for camp in 2015. Luckily, Seattle has a stable of capable runners already in place—most notably Christine Michael—and can bring Gurley along at his own pace.
32. New England Patriots: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
This is a steal that I cannot entirely explain. Congrats on your productive wideout, Tom Brady.
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