MMA in 2014: The 10 Biggest Upsets
MMA is notorious for giving us upsets. It's the beautiful nature of the sport. 2014 continued that tradition with some stunning upsets.
Some of the most famous MMA moments were upsets—Gabriel Gonzaga's head-kick KO of Mirko Cro Cop, Matt Serra's chasing down a wobbly Georges St-Pierre and Fabricio Werdum's frantic celebration after submitting Fedor Emelianenko.
For 2014, we have narrowed down the field by taking the betting lines from oddsmakers. All of the finalists were more than 3-1 underdogs in their respective bouts. Ranking them came from a combination of betting odds, stylistic matchups and quality of competition. That is what gave us the final list of 2014's biggest upsets.
Bellator, Invicta FC and the UFC are all represented on this list.
Without further ado, let's get started with the 10 biggest upsets from the past 12 months of in-cage action.
Honorable Mentions
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Biggest Oddsmakers Mistake: Tito Ortiz
Betting Odds: +300
Ortiz took on Bellator's middleweight champion Alexander Shlemenko at Bellator 120 and entered not only as an underdog but at plus-300. That was silly, and easy money. Ortiz had a massive size advantage in the fight. He secured an arm-triangle choke in less than 2:30 of the first round.
Easy money.
Drew Dober Retires Jamie Varner
Betting Odds: +375
UFC on Fox 13 was going to be Varner's final MMA fight win or lose, but if he had any thoughts of continuing with a win, Dober took that away.
Varner knocked himself out on a takedown, and Dober took advantage with a rear-naked choke soon after. It was more bad luck for Varner, and a nice payout for those who took Dober.
CB Dollaway Starts 2014 With an Upset
Betting Odds: +325
Dollaway entered 2014 as a fringe top-15 middleweight and took on Cezar Ferreira at UFC Fight Night 38. He knocked out the talented Brazilian in less than 40 seconds. It would set up bigger fights for Dollaway and put everyone on notice that he had vastly improved.
Kiichi Kunimoto Finishes Daniel Sarafian
Betting Odds: +375
Kunimoto seemed to be a good matchup for Sarafian at UFC 174. The former The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil finalist looked like he got a showcase fight. Then Kunimoto choked him out in less than three minutes. The submission earned Kunimoto a Performance of the Night bonus from the UFC, and bettors got some extra scratch.
Mitch Clarke Takes a Performance of the Night Bonus
Betting Odds: +350
The unassuming lightweight got pitted against Al Iaquinta at UFC 173 and came away with a second-round finish. Clarke locked up a D'arce choke for the win and a bonus check. It was Clarke's second straight win, and when he returns to the cage, he will get a bigger fight in the division.
No. 10: Thiago Santos Proves Betting Odds Wrong
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Betting Odds: +550
UFC Fight Night 38 looked to be a lock for Ronny Markes. He had a career record of 14-2 and was coming off a loss to Yoel Romero. He was a solid middleweight fighter.
All signs pointed to this being a great rebound fight, but Thiago Santos didn't get the memo.
The Brazilian, coming off a loss to Cezar Ferreira, finished Markes inside of one minute of action. A body kick started the downfall for Markes, and Santos followed up with punches until the fight was stopped. The upset moved Santos into a bout with Uriah Hall at UFC 175 four months later.
By betting odds alone, this was one of the biggest upsets of the year.
No. 9: Joe Warren Takes Bellator Crown
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Betting Odds: +350
Joe Warren is a top-flight wrestler. His elite status earned him big fights as soon as he transitioned to the world of MMA. He took on Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto in his second professional fight and won. That win moved him into a DREAM semifinal bout against Bibiano Fernandes, which he would lose.
Warren would win five fights in a row, including Bellator's featherweight title, before suffering back-to-back KO losses to Alexis Vila and Pat Curran. Those two losses took away a lot of confidence in Warren from fans, media and oddsmakers.
Since 2012, Bellator had built Warren back up with four bouts against lesser competition. Warren didn't always look great, but he got the wins. He won the interim Bellator bantamweight belt to earn a fight against champion Eduardo Dantas.
In a five-round battle, it was Warren who took the fight on the judges' scorecards at Bellator 128.
While Warren should have been an underdog, plus-350 is a bit much given his extensive credentials in wrestling. Now, as champion, he likely won't see those numbers for quite some time. But in 2014, he came away as one of the top underdog victors.
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No. 8: Bobby Green Nabs Decision over Josh Thomson
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Betting Odds: +325
Bobby Green rode a seven-fight win streak into his bout against Josh Thomson.
He had shown flashes of greatness in his previous fights, but he was a borderline top-10 lightweight at best—or at least that is what many thought entering UFC on Fox 12.
Green came in on two weeks' notice to fight top-five-ranked Thomson.
The two battled in a highly entertaining 15-minute bout. Green earned a split-decision win to put his name among the best in the division. On the feet, his boxing can match the best of the lightweight contenders. He was on his game in July and knocked off a title contender.
Green couldn't close out 2014 in the same way. He lost to Edson Barboza in November to stymie his rise up the ranks.
No. 7: Mike Wilkinson Comes from Nowhere
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Betting Odds: +575
This was the biggest UFC upset of 2014 by the betting odds.
The picture above is Mike Wilkinson eating a kick to the face. That is what was supposed to happen at UFC Fight Night 53. Less than 20 seconds after that kick, he knocked Niklas Backstrom out cold.
Wilkinson got his UFC contract by going 7-0 and then picked up his eighth win in his UFC debut over Brendan Loughnane. He got a step up in competition against Rony Jason and was submitted in just 84 seconds. Backstrom was a bad matchup for Wilkinson.
On this night, however, Backstrom got a bit too close on one of his kicks, and Wilkinson landed a nice right hand over the top. At 1:19 of the first round, it was done. He opened the UFC Fight Night 53 main card with a big upset.
No. 6: Andrei Arlovski's Ascent Continues
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Betting Odds: +325
After winning four of his previous five fights, Andrei Arlovski got the call from the UFC. He returned after six years away from the promotion against Brendan Schaub. It was a lackluster fight, but Arlovski got the win.
He was then pitted against Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva.
The prevailing thought was Arlovski had already seen his best days and his chin couldn't stand up to the big paws of Bigfoot. Arlovski didn't give Bigfoot much of a chance to test that theory as he ended the fight with a brutal, unexpected knockout in the first round.
The win put Arlovski on the brink of being a top-five heavyweight in the UFC. Next to no one saw that storyline coming in 2014.
The KO from nowhere and the level of competition put this just outside of the top five upsets of the year.
No. 5: Johnny Eduardo Takes Care of Eddie Wineland
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Betting Odds: +550
Eddie Wineland had won three of his last four with his only loss coming at the hands of Renan Barao in a UFC Bantamweight Championship tilt. He got back in the win column by beating Yves Jabouin and was looking for another win to get another title shot.
Johnny Eduardo stopped those plans emphatically, showcasing his speed and power with the first-round KO in May 2014.
Wineland and the crowd were stunned by Eduardo's finish at UFC Fight Night 40 in Cincinnati. Wineland could not match Eduardo on the feet and got cracked. Making the KO even more remarkable, it marked the first time Eduardo had stepped foot in the cage in nearly two years.
The win put him in the Top 10 of the bantamweight rankings, but we have yet to see him back in the cage since.
No. 4: Herica Tiburcio Gives Michelle Waterson a Taste of Her Own Medicine
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Betting Odds: +400
Herica Tiburcio took Michelle Waterson's atomweight championship in a similar fashion that Waterson won it—as a sizable underdog via submission.
Much like Waterson in her title fight against Jessica Penne, Tiburcio entered as a fairly unknown fighter to most fans. Women in MMA simply do not have the coverage that the men receive. Even with all her credentials it was a one-sided fight in the eyes of most fans. However, in reality, this was a close contest between two high-level fighters. Even so, Waterson was the solid favorite.
Waterson had become the face of Invicta FC. Tiburcio, meanwhile, was making her atomweight debut, and her strength advantage was evident.
The Brazilian got the win when she jumped guard with a guillotine, and the thud make it seem more like a DDT in pro wrestling. Waterson tapped, and MMA photographer Esther Lin captured the moment in what may be the best MMA photo of 2014.
This fight mirrored Waterson's title victory in so many ways, and Tiburcio is thankful for that.
No. 3: Rafael Dos Anjos Becomes a Title Contender
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Betting Odds: +375
Rafael dos Anjos put together a string of victories before having that streak snapped by Khabib Nurmagomedov. The UFC veteran seemed to be a gatekeeper to the upper echelon of the division. Six years into his career with the UFC, he had not moved into serious title contention.
That changed at UFC Fight Night 49.
Benson Henderson lost his title to Anthony Pettis in 2013. He started 2014 with back-to-back wins, and third would put him right back in the mix for a title shot.
Dos Anjos ended those dreams with a TKO in 2:31 of the first round.
Henderson protested the stoppage, but on replay it looked like a proper end to the fight. Dos Anjos simply caught Henderson.
Dos Anjos' progression as a fighter is not talked about enough. He has developed his skills nicely, and that has made him a title contender.
With Nurmagomedov still nursing an injury, we could see Dos Anjos get his long-awaited title shot in 2015, thanks in part to his incredible upset victory over Henderson.
No. 2: Will Brooks Arrives
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Betting Odds: +600
Will Brooks went from promising prospect to champion in short order.
He was not known to a wide audience before defeating Michael Chandler at Bellator 120. He was 5-1 in Bellator with an overall record of 13-1. He got the title shot by winning the Bellator Season 9 tournament and because champion Eddie Alvarez pulled out of the event.
Chandler was not just a big favorite but a borderline top-10 lightweight in all of MMA. He was 12-1 and coming off a split decision loss to Alvarez in 2013.
Brooks and Chandler battled to a split decision in May, and Brooks came away as the largest underdog victor in 2014.
He followed up this performance by solidifying his spot as a top lightweight with a stoppage win over Chandler in November. He was not such a big underdog in that fight.
Brooks' rise to the top showed how quickly things move in this crazy sport.
No. 1: T.J. Dillashaw Stuns Renan Barao
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Betting Odds: +525
There was no other choice for the biggest upset of 2014.
Renan Barao was on the UFC's pound-for-pound rankings, and the promos for UFC 173 highlighted that fact. UFC President Dana White and Joe Rogan hyped Barao up as the ultimate performer. Dillashaw was just someone fighting Barao on short notice.
Dillashaw was originally slated for a bout against Takeya Mizugaki until Raphael Assuncao pulled out of the title tilt. Dillashaw had only just gotten back in the win column after dropping a contentious decision to Assuncao.
All signs pointed to Barao keeping his title in an easy fight. But that would not be the case.
Dillashaw's improved footwork and striking outclassed Barao. He outworked the champion and was on his way to a clear-cut decision victory after five rounds.
That was not good enough for Dillashaw. The bantamweight challenger continued to the push the pace instead of coasting in the final frame. It paid off.
Dillashaw landed a head kick that hurt Barao, and he pounced to get the stoppage at 2:26 of the fifth and final round.
The upset was one of the best moments of 2014. Dillashaw has improved leaps and bounds since his time on The Ultimate Fighter and captured the first piece of gold for Team Alpha Male. He stands alone atop the bantamweight division entering 2015.
All betting odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.
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