The State Of Football In Alabama...Have The Tides Turned Against Auburn?

It's the start of the 2008 season. Auburn is ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll, while Alabama falls behind at 24th.  Auburn is coming off of a 9-4 season and a win over favored Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but more importantly, Auburn has beaten Alabama 6 times in a row.

Alabama is entering the 2008 season off of a mediocre and somewhat disappointing 7-6 season with a win over Colorado in the Independence Bowl. For those Bama fans who figured Nick Saban would be the reincarnation of Bear Bryant, who still has never "died," losing to Auburn for a 6th year in a row during the 2007-08 season raised some questions about Saban. 

Auburn is expected to compete for an SEC title and possibly a BCS bowl, while Alabama making the SEC Championship game would be a surprise for some.

It's the start of the 2009 season. Auburn is no where to be found in any preseason rankings and most are ranking Alabama in the top 10. Auburn is coming off one of its worst seasons since Terry Bowden, posting a 5-7 record, and Alabama is coming off one of it's better seasons since Gene Stalllings, aka Bear Bryant, Jr., was Alabama's during the early 1990s.

After losing several games in 2008, Auburn quickly fell off its preseason perch, becoming unranked and missing a bowl game. And, even worse, Auburn lost to Alabama, badly.  Alabama finished the 2008 season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, before losing to Florida in the SEC Championship and to underdog Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

While Alabama finished the 2008 season in a manner that probably disappointed most Alabama fans, the 2009 outlook for Alabama is high, despite losing John P. Wilson and Glen Coffeee. 

Conversely, Auburn is picked to finish 5th in the SEC West, only edging out Mississippi State. So, many are wondering, what has changed so much about the two programs over the course of a couple of years? 

Could it be recruiting? Could it be Nick Saban? Could it be both? According to most team recruiting rankings, in 2007, Alabama landed the top recruiting class in the nation, while Auburn hovered around the 20th best class. 

Similarly, Alabama's 2008 class, which featured prize receiver Julio Jones, was the best class in the nation, while Auburn barely made the top 20. So, since Alabama is recruiting better players than Auburn, that must be the reason they are "better" now right? No, not necessarily.

Looking back, since 2000, or really since the creation of Adam & Eve, often, Alabama has recruited better than Auburn. Alabama's string of National titles during the '50s-'70s created a huge brand name for Alabama that is going to draw blue chip players to play for the Crimson Tide, regardless of how successful Alabama is.

Look at Tim Tebow, arguably the best player ever in college football. His top choices to play football were Alabama and Florida, and this was when Mike Shula (not in the Bear Bryant family tree) was head coach at Bama and they were struggling. 

Therefore, while Alabama's recruiting certainly helps give them an advantage over Auburn, it does not guarantee success, as Auburn beat Alabama plenty of years, with "less talent."

As for Nick Saban...sure, he's a great coach, arguably among the best in the game. But, people tend to forget that outside of his National Title at LSU, LSU did experience some mediocre seasons under Saban.

Further, many people seem to forget that in 2007, after winning 6 out of their first 8, Alabama lost 4 games in a row to end the year. And, if anyone besides myself watched the Alabama/Utah game in the Sugar Bowl, the Crimson Tide looked like an unmotivated team, playing with far less emotion than the Utes of Utah.

To be clear, I am in no way saying Saban isn't a great, top-level coach. I am simply stating it is too early to say that Alabama is going to have perennial dominance over Auburn because of Nick Saban.

In conclusion, many college sports fans in Alabama are wondering: "have the tides turned against Auburn?"  No, not necessarily. During the Shula years at Alabama, some thought Auburn would win 10 in a row against Bama, and Bama would not return to prominence, but in a span of 2 years, Alabama is back on the map.

Similarly, after a 5-7 season, it does not mean Auburn is off the map. Gene Chizik has put together a pretty good staff at Auburn, and time will tell how successful Auburn will be under Chizik. But, let's give Auburn a chance before crowning Alabama and writing off Auburn...