Predicting Miami Dolphins' Biggest Roster Moves This Offseason
The Miami Dolphins have one game left in their 2014 season, but due to being eliminated from the playoffs, it's safe to say the offseason has begun in Davie.
The Dolphins already made one big offseason move—perhaps the biggest one of the 2015 offseason, per Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post:
"Steve Ross says Philbin is coming back
— Andrew Abramson (@AbramsonPBP) December 21, 2014"
That is only the beginning though, as the season has shown that this is a team that's close but still needs an infusion of talent in order to truly compete in the NFL.
What moves will the team make? Allow me to predict the Dolphins' biggest offseason moves of 2015.
What the Dolphins Have to Work with This Offseason
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Per OverTheCap.com, the Miami Dolphins have $142,026,177 committed to salary in 2015.
While the 2015 cap number won't be official until March, ProFootballTalk.com reports that the salary cap could hit $145 million in 2015.
That would leave the Dolphins with $2.97 million in cap room, which is not exactly an ideal situation to be in.
This number can be trimmed by a few roster cuts, some of which will be explained later in this article.
In terms of draft picks, the Dolphins likely won't get any compensatory picks in 2015 due to their free-agent activity, but they do hold a pick in each round of the draft.
Their seventh-round pick was sent to Baltimore last season in exchange for Bryant McKinnie, but they regained a seventh-round pick thanks to their trade of Jonathan Martin, as Martin was on the 49ers' 53-man roster in Week 1 (and has remained there all season).
Say Goodbye to Dannell Ellerbe and Maybe Philip Wheeler
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Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler are a package deal, one that hasn't exactly been good to the Dolphins since they were signed in 2013.
Ellerbe missed all but a few Week 1 plays in 2014, and his work in 2013 was far from stellar, as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had him ranked at 50th among inside linebackers with a grade of minus-13.5.
As for Wheeler, he's been cursed more than any other defensive player on the Dolphins, and for good reason. In 2013, he was graded as the worst outside linebacker in the league at minus-19.5. His Pro Football Focus grade did improve this season though, as he's at 2.6.
In the end, this won't be about either Ellerbe or Wheeler's play, but about money. I feel a bit more confident in predicting Ellerbe's release, as his 2015 cap number is at $9.85 million.
Releasing Ellerbe would save the Dolphins $5.65 million. It's very likely Miami will spend a draft pick on a linebacker (likely a high draft pick), and with the play of Jelani Jenkins, Ellerbe becomes an expensive appendage.
As for Wheeler, I could see him being released, but his saving grace (outside of his improvement from 2013 to 2014) is the fact that releasing him would only save the Dolphins $200,000, and assuming they draft another linebacker, you could look at it as the Dolphins paying a decent backup $200,000.
Brian Hartline a Likely Release, Too
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The story of the 2014 Miami Dolphins will include the emergence of Jarvis Landry, but at least one player feels the downside to that.
That player is Brian Hartline, who last season led the Dolphins with 76 catches for 1,016 yards and four touchdowns.
This season, Hartline has 34 catches for 380 yards and two touchdowns.
Quite the decline, although skill-wise, Hartline is the same player he was in 2012 and 2013—he's just not targeted as much (57 this season compared to 133 in 2013).
Mike Wallace's stats have improved from last season, and Landry leads the team in receptions. Both have a lot more targets than Hartline, and on top of that, expect the Dolphins to add at least one more receiver in the draft.
What does this mean for Hartline? A possible phase-out. Hartline carries a $7.35 million cap hit in 2015, and releasing him would save the Dolphins $3.15 million.
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Jared Odrick Will Be Retained
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At the start of the year, the defensive line was considered a strength for the Miami Dolphins.
That hasn't been the case in a month based on its play on the field, but there is still talent along that line, and one of those talents looks to become a free agent this spring.
Jared Odrick is in the final year of his rookie contract and will likely be the second-best defensive tackle on the market, assuming the Dolphins allow it to go that far.
If the Dolphins decide to use their franchise tag, it would be on Odrick. A franchise tag on a defensive tackle cost $9.654 million in 2014 and will likely cost more next season.
Because of that, as well as Odrick's versatility, expect these two sides to get to work on a deal as soon as they can during the offseason. Odrick not only fits Miami's current 4-3 defense as a defensive tackle, but he would also work as a 3-4 defensive end if any changes were made to the scheme this offseason.
On top of that, Odrick is graded at 6.3 per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and he is one of the better interior pass-rushers in the league with nine quarterback hits and a sack.
A deal will be made between Odrick and the Dolphins before the offseason can really begin, and Miami would be foolish not to make such a deal.
Dion Jordan Will Play Outside Linebacker
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This is music to the ears of many Dolphins fans, and it's a prediction that I can back up not just with analysis, but with a statement from Dolphins defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.
Coyle was asked on Monday about moving Dion Jordan to linebacker, and as Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post reports, the Dolphins are open to the idea:
“We’re going to evaluate everything here as we go into the offseason. That’s certainly going to be one of the main topics. We have got to find ways to utilize him more.”
Jordan won't just play outside linebacker—he should flourish in the position.
If you look at his game film from college, you'll notice that Jordan was at his best when he was standing upright, not when he was in a three-point stance. His build is more suited for linebacker as well, which could be a major reason why he had to gain the weight he did prior to the 2014 season.
I've always seen Jordan as a freakish athlete and project who could be best utilized either in the pass rush or in coverage, and you saw this on Sunday, a day where Jordan recorded his first NFL sack and added three quarterback hurries.
Putting him at outside linebacker gives Miami options: They could switch to a base 3-4 defense, moving Jared Odrick to defensive end with Cameron Wake and having Earl Mitchell play nose tackle (not ideal, but Mitchell played well as a nose tackle with the Texans), while putting together a linebacking unit of Jordan and Olivier Vernon on the outside, and Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins inside.
Or, the Dolphins can keep their base 4-3 defense but mix and match packages, which they were successful with in 2014 when they actually did it.
Jordan as a linebacker opens up these options. My only question is why it took so long to reach this conclusion in Miami, when many people saw this being the answer on draft day in 2013.
Dolphins Will Make a Run at Andre Johnson
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This is my biggest and boldest prediction, one I feel fairly confident in if for no other reason than my gut instinct.
The Dolphins will make a run at Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson this offseason.
How that run will be made isn't something I'm sure of. Johnson is under contract next season with the Texans set to pay him $16,144,583. If the Texans were to release Johnson, they would save $8.825 million, but if there's a trade market for him, I could see them going that route.
The reason this is possible is the money. As Bleacher Report's Jason Cole points out, the Texans are going to force him to "take a pay cut, or cut him altogether," and "the belief is strong that they will probably cut him altogether."
The Texans have to do one of those two things because they need help in other areas, mainly on offense. Johnson is having one of his worst years in the league this year (75 catches, 802 yards, two touchdowns), but I can easily attribute that more toward the carousel of quarterbacks the Texans have had.
He'd be a great addition on the Dolphins, as he'd be the big, physical wide receiver needed to complement Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry.
Adding another big and physical receiver in the draft (a draft loaded with receivers) would give the Dolphins a formidable receiving corps in 2015.
But building that corps will start by attempting to woo Johnson to come back home to Miami. If the Texans are willing to cut bait with him, expect the Dolphins to pounce on that opportunity.
Salary-cap figures provided by OverTheCap.com and Spotrac.com. Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus, which requires a subscription.
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