NFL Predictions: Week 17 Awards Watch
Awards season is on the horizon for the NFL, and players have just one week to put the finishing touches on their 2014 seasons.
Some winners are foregone conclusions, but we continue to see late challengers to some awards that seemed decided weeks ago. As we forge ahead to Week 17 and beyond, let's take one last look at the awards picture for NFL players.
Most Valuable Player
1 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 1 |
| 2 | J.J. Watt | DE | Texans | 2 |
| 3 | Tony Romo | QB | Cowboys | N/A |
| 4 | Tom Brady | QB | Patriots | 3 |
| 5 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | 5 |
Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Suddenly, without warning outside the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Tony Romo is a legitimate MVP candidate. How is this possible?
Well, the Cowboys are playoff-bound after trouncing the AFC South champion Indianapolis Colts—albeit with a lackadaisical effort from Indy—and winning the NFC East outright.
Romo joins running back DeMarco Murray as a legitimate MVP candidate in Dallas, though the latter has been one for much of the season and is just as deserving of credit. Romo's atypically fantastic play this December has propelled the Cowboys to a playoff berth that few expected before the season began.
As you might expect, Romo's team is already stumping for the award on his behalf, per Drew Davison of the Star-Telegram:
"'He is the MVP,' wide receiver Dez Bryant said. 'Look at the performance. You give him hell in December. He goes 3-0 in December. That’s icing on the cake. Give it to him. He is doing a helluva job.'
Said owner Jerry Jones: 'He is certainly in my book. And yes he is. [DeMarco] Murray has certainly carried his share. But Tony his quarterbacking this year is indispensable. We couldn’t have had a team. And we got a team this year that is one of the top four or five teams in the league. That’s a pretty good qualification.'
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That is all fine and dandy, but similar things can be said of several quarterbacks. After all, where would the Denver Broncos be without Peyton Manning or the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers?
Speaking of the devil, Rodgers has coasted as the top MVP candidate for some time now. He had been far and away the most efficient quarterback this season, but a torrid run from Romo has altered the landscape. The question is whether the Dallas QB has caught Rodgers.
Statistically, it depends where you look.
Romo now leads the league in passer rating (114.4), total QBR (82.3) and yards per attempt (8.5). He doesn't lead Rodgers by much, however—the latter ranks second in those categories at 111.0, 81.19 and 8.3, respectively—and Rodgers is still the leader by a wide margin in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Rodgers is also miles ahead of Romo as far as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) is concerned. Romo is rated sixth.
Rodgers has also done it with a little less help. While Eddie Lacy has certainly been good for the Packers, he has not been an MVP candidate like Murray.
The Cowboys also sport a stronger offensive line and one of the top receivers in the league in Dez Bryant, though Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are nothing to sneeze at for the Packers.
Finally, the Packers play in a tougher defensive division; outside of Green Bay, the NFC North has allowed just 22.56 points and 233.4 passing yards per game on average, while the NFC East minus Dallas has given up 24.65 PPG and 259.4 passing YPG.
Romo's nuclear December might just propel him to the award as Rodgers has been up and down to close the season. But we still have one week to go.
It may come down to this weekend, when Rodgers plays for the NFC North and the No. 1 seed. He has to shine against a tough Detroit defense that clamped down on him earlier this season.
As for J.J. Watt, his MVP candidacy likely hinges on Houston's threadbare playoff hopes, and Romo's recent rise might have sunk the dominant defensive end regardless.
Coach of the Year
2 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Coach | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Bruce Arians | Cardinals | 1 |
| 2 | Bill Belichick | Patriots | 2 |
| 3 | Jim Caldwell | Lions | 3 |
| 4 | Pete Carroll | Seahawks | 5 |
| 5 | Mike McCarthy | Packers | N/A |
Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals may have been exposed as playoff pretenders last week—and who wouldn't be if you were forced to start Ryan Lindley at quarterback—but there is no denying their head coach should win this award at this point.
Arizona is headed to the playoffs and still technically alive for a No. 1 seed even after getting trounced by the Seattle Seahawks last week.
An ugly collapse from the Philadelphia Eagles booted Chip Kelly from the top five here, though it was still a good year for a coach who had a regressing Nick Foles and typical Mark Sanchez foisted onto him.
In his place is the underrated head coach of the Green Bay Packers, Mike McCarthy, who has his team poised to win the NFC North title after surprising improvement on the offensive line and defensive side of the ball.
Offensive Player of the Year
3 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | 2 |
| 2 | Le'Veon Bell | RB | Steelers | 3 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 1 |
| 4 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | Patriots | 5 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | QB | Cowboys | N/A |
Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The past couple of weeks haven't been kind to Aaron Rodgers' candidacy for Offensive Player of the Year.
He had a horrendous showing against the Buffalo Bills and managed just one late touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
Granted, he regained his efficient form in the performance—Rodgers remains the best or second-best quarterback in all advanced metrics—but his volume statistics will probably be too thin here.
Similar things can be said about Tony Romo, who lags behind in shiny statistics that may distract some voters like passing yards and touchdowns, thanks in part to an injury that forced him to miss almost two entire games.
With Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck faltering late for the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, respectively, this award might roll to a running back this season. If so, that man is almost assuredly DeMarco Murray.
The talented Cowboys running back won't likely get to 2,000 yards despite being on pace to surpass that number for half the season, but he easily leads the league in rushing and could well hit 1,900 yards with a big finishing flourish against Washington.
Hot on his heels is Le'Veon Bell, whose pass-catching prowess has him just 25 total yards behind Murray on the year. He has been on a tear the past several weeks, and one more big game could get him over the hump and close to 2,300 total yards.
Murray has been consistently great this season, however, and he has the NFC East title under his belt and the power of Jerry Jones behind him.
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Defensive Player of the Year
4 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | J.J. Watt | DE | Texans | 1 |
| 2 | Justin Houston | OLB | Chiefs | 2 |
| 3 | Luke Kuechly | MLB | Panthers | 3 |
| 4 | Richard Sherman | CB | Seahawks | N/A |
| 5 | Lavonte David | OLB | Buccaneers | N/A |
Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
J.J. Watt is a bad man.
Last week, the MVP candidate spearheaded a suffocating defense that subjugated the Baltimore Ravens offense and kept Houston's playoff hopes alive. He notched another sack to keep pace with league leader Justin Houston, who is just a half-sack ahead with 18.0 on the season.
Watt has broken the 100-point barrier, and his own rating record yet again over at PFF; he's easily the most dominant defensive player in the league. He leads the NFL in fumble recoveries with five—one for a touchdown, to go along with a pick-six and three touchdowns as a tight end—and has continued his swatting ways with 10 passes defensed.
Simply put, Watt is the best defensive player we have seen since Reggie White or, perhaps, the last defender who was named MVP—Lawrence Taylor.
Luke Kuechly, meanwhile, continues to lead the league in tackling, playing solid all-around football for the Carolina Panthers. Tackle numbers matter as votes for this award go—how else can we explain the fact Watt didn't get this last year?—but it's unlikely Kuechly will be any better than third this season.
Lavonte David is an intriguing candidate, one of a host who have come and gone from the top five here as Watt, Houston and Kuechly have remained.
David is second in tackling this season, just behind Kuechly despite having played two fewer games. He is one of the few bright spots on that woeful Buccaneers squad. He might not be as well-rounded as some of his contemporaries, but the Tampa Bay outside linebacker is an unheralded tackling machine.
It might seem like Richard Sherman is undeserving of consideration, but—like him or not—he is arguably the best cornerback in the league. He is certainly buoyed by playing alongside the likes of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, but Sherman has shut down his side of the field this season.
Sherman leads the league in cover snaps per reception—how many snaps in coverage between receptions given up, essentially—an advanced metric over at PFF. He has allowed just one touchdown and a passer rating of just 43.4 on balls thrown his direction this season, second to Indianapolis' Vontae Davis.
In the end, you may as well engrave Watt's name on the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
5 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | Giants | 1 |
| 2 | Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers | 1 |
| 3 | Jeremy Hill | RB | Bengals | 5 |
| 4 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | Panthers | 3 |
| 5 | Zack Martin | OG | Cowboys | N/A |
Winner: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
Like taking a 15-yard post route and outracing the defense for a long touchdown, so has Odell Beckham Jr. run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
He now leads the league in receptions, yardage and touchdowns among rookie receivers. He did it after spotting the competition four whole games because of injury.
New York's shooting star is having arguably the best season for a rookie receiver in NFL history. He stands alone as the only first-year wideout with at least 70 receptions for 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns in a season since the 1970 merger.
Again, he's done it in 11 games.
Beckham has dusted the competition—Mike Evans, who looked like he might run away with the award after a torrid stretch earlier this season. Evans is still tied for the rookie lead with 11 touchdowns, and he could feasibly end the season as the leading rookie receiver.
But that would be lip service compared to the fantastic season Beckham has had.
Were it not for a historic season by wide receivers this season, Jeremy Hill might have some serious traction for this award. He has a good chance to match Eddie Lacy's award-winning rookie season from just a year ago with 84 yards and a pair of touchdowns this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he has zero chance of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The Bengals rookie has come on strong in the second half of the season, surpassing 1,000 yards in a big win against the Denver Broncos last week as he leads all rookies rushing.
Browns offensive guard Joel Bitonio might have been the highest-rated left guard in the league, according to PFF, but Cowboys counterpart Zack Martin got the Pro Bowl nod—the only rookie on the offensive side of the ball—which is an indicator he might get a few votes behind Beckham for OROY.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
6 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | C.J. Mosley | ILB | Ravens | 2 |
| 2 | Aaron Donald | DT | Rams | 1 |
| 3 | Khalil Mack | ILB | Ravens | 2 |
| 4 | Chris Borland | ILB | 49ers | 4 |
| 5 | Preston Brown | OLB | Bills | 5 |
Winner: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Baltimore Ravens
It will be interesting what wins out in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race—volume statistics or the eyeball test.
Despite lackluster statistics, Khalil Mack has easily been the best rookie defender this season. He is the top-rated 4-3 outside linebacker in the entire league, according to PFF, ahead of guys like Von Miller and Lavonte David.
As we have seen with the Pro Bowl vote, however, stats matter; Mack was snubbed from the all-star selections, which is a sign he may be overlooked for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
It seems that award will be down to the two defensive rookies who did make the Pro Bowl—Aaron Donald and C.J. Mosley. The latter has the benefit of raw tackle numbers to prop up his case—he is seventh in the league in that department.
Aaron Donald's run of dominance ended last week, as he was unable to secure a sack in a sixth consecutive game. He needed to continue that momentum to stave off the stat-friendly linebacker, and it will take a monster showing against the Seattle Seahawks for Donald to overcome Mosley.
NFL Rookie of the Year
7 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | Giants | 1 |
| 2 | Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers | 2 |
| 3 | C.J. Mosley | ILB | Ravens | 4 |
| 4 | Jeremy Hill | RB | Bengals | N/A |
| 5 | Aaron Donald | DT | Rams | 3 |
Winner: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
This is simply elementary at this point. Odell Beckham Jr. is the NFL's top rookie by any measure, as we have already seen in his case for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
There is little chance that anyone will catch him on offense, and—as with the NFL MVP—the odds are even longer a defensive player will win the overall award.
Comeback Player of the Year
8 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | Patriots | 1 |
| 2 | Julio Jones | WR | Falcons | 3 |
| 3 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Eagles | 2 |
| 4 | Rolando McClain | LB | Cowboys | 4 |
| 5 | Von Miller | OLB | Broncos | N/A |
Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
It has been a remarkable season for some players coming back from injury.
Rob Gronkowski is a shoo-in for the award at this point, leading the tight end position in receiving this season—though he has a little work to do in a meaningless game if he is going to retain at least a share of the lead in receptions and touchdowns.
He did it despite a slow start thanks to an ACL injury from which he was still recovering this past preseason.
Julio Jones shook off a broken foot that shelved him for most of 2013 and a slow start to 2014 to challenge for the league lead in receiving, depending on how Week 17 pans out. He is currently second to Antonio Brown despite missing a game to injury.
For a while it seemed like Jeremy Maclin might win this award, but he has faded from the top just like the Philadelphia Eagles in recent weeks.
Fantasy Player of the Year
9 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | 1 | 286.0 |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | Patriots | 2 | 184.4 |
| 3 | Le'Veon Bell | RB | Steelers | 3 | 277.4 |
| 4 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | Giants | 5 | 181.5 |
| 5 | Andrew Luck | QB | Colts | 4 | 425.9 |
Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The fantasy football season is over for most, so this award is probably in the bag regardless of what happens in Week 17.
As he has been the most consistent fantasy scorer this season, DeMarco Murray should win this award with relative ease. He has been in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in all but four weeks this season, never really putting up a bad score.
Even with a broken hand.
Murray has been invaluable to fantasy owners for 16 weeks, unlike some of the late comers who are challenging him thanks to strong second halves.
Those late comers are Le'Veon Bell—though he has been great for much of the season as well—and Odell Beckham Jr., who has been the waiver-wire pickup of the year by a wide margin.
Beckham might be the fantasy playoff MVP—his 79 standard points over the past three weeks is the third-best score among all players, quarterbacks included—but missing the first four games and waiting until the second half of the season to catch fire may have sunk a few fantasy teams.
In the middle of this all is Rob Gronkowski, who is perhaps underrated when it comes to the big picture because his point total isn't quite up there with the other positions. He has easily been the most reliable tight end this season, a valuable commodity at a volatile position.
Through thick and thin, Andrew Luck was a reliable quarterback in the fantasy realm. Until fantasy championship week, that is.
Luck was a huge letdown in a game the Indianapolis Colts seemed disinterested in playing, lighting fantasy lineups everywhere aflame like the Joker.
All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.
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