2015 NFL Mock Draft: Post-Week 16 Breakdown
With only one week remaining in the 2014 regular season, the likelihood of notching a top pick has turned from a pipe dream into a reality for a handful of teams
Among them are two teams that could very well be selecting a quarterback atop the draft board. With victories from the Jaguars and Raiders in Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans are neck-and-neck at two wins entering Week 17.
Dominant pass-rushers have starred atop draft boards all season long with the likes of Oakland penciled in at the top pick. But now that the teams have changed considerably among the first few picks, the selections are changing with them.
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So many variables are still left to figure out—from strength of schedule, to Week 17 games, to playoff results—before the draft order is completely nailed down. But there's no time for waiting in the NFL, so let's go ahead and break down how Round 1 should unfold if the season ended today.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
Despite losing almost all of its games, the end of the season has worked out quite nicely for Tampa Bay. With other teams possibly in the hunt for Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, no team needs him more than the lowly Bucs.
Tampa Bay fans are already preparing themselves, Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker noticed Sunday:
Not that the Bucs' only need is at quarterback, but Mariota should bring some serious improvement right off the bat and develop a bond with budding star wideout Mike Evans.
2. Tennessee Titans: DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska
It won't be a popular pick for Titans fans clamoring for a new quarterback, but the Titans will strike gold by nabbing the best pass-rusher in the nation. Randy Gregory is an every-down impact-maker on the edge, which Tennessee has lacked since the days of Jevon Kearse—yeah, that long ago.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Leonard Williams, USC
The Jaguars have improved from lifeless to formidable up front on defense, but the addition of USC's Leonard Williams would put them over the top. He could use his versatility to Jacksonville's advantage against huge defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks, and form a dominant duo.
4. New York Jets: QB Jameis Winston, FSU
I can envision the creative media headlines already. The tenure of Rex Ryan—and maybe general manager John Idzik—is coming to an end, and the new coach will be intent on filling the club's biggest need by far. Jameis Winston has baggage, but he has shown his ability to lead at the highest level, and New York will take the risk.
5. Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
A few late-season wins have taken the Raiders out of the top-pick category, but this actually works better for their needs. Oakland desperately needs some game-changing talent on offense, and Alabama's Amari Cooper can change any game with a single play.
There may not be a person on Earth more excited by the pick than young starting quarterback Derek Carr, who has been doing it alone on offense.
6. Washington Redskins: OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa
It doesn't really matter if it's Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy or insert free-agent quarterback here, the Redskins' 2015 starter will need to be protected better. There's no better way to ensure protection than to get the can't-miss offensive tackle in the draft, and if there is one in 2015, it's big-bodied Brandon Scherff out of Iowa.
7. Chicago Bears: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The Bears' defensive ineptitude really goes without saying this season, and it all starts with a lifeless secondary. There may not be a livelier defender in the draft than Alabama's Landon Collins, a hard-hitting safety with impeccable instincts that will single-handedly improve Chicago's defense against both the run and the pass.
8. Atlanta Falcons: DE Shane Ray, Missouri
The Falcons are in an odd position entering Week 17—win and they're in the playoffs, lose and they'll get a top-10 draft pick. Atlanta won't have much to complain about when Shane Ray falls in their laps, as the Missouri edge-rusher has the overall package to come off the board by pick No. 5.
9. Minnesota Vikings: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
For all of Minnesota's success in rushing the passer, keeping opposing pass-rushers away from Teddy Bridgewater has been a chore all season. The Vikings will only go as far as Bridgewater takes them, and an improved defense will have Mike Zimmer happy to target a long-time left tackle in Andrus Peat to anchor the offensive line.
10. New Orleans Saints: OLB Shaq Thompson, Washington
The real danger of the Saints defense used to be in how relentlessly they attacked the backfield—which is no longer the case. New Orleans could do no better at No. 10 than to take Washington edge-rusher Shaq Thompson, one of the nation's elite defensive standouts who can get to the quarterback or keep the outside free from rushers.
11. New York Giants: DE/OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
The Giants desperately need someone alongside Jason Pierre-Paul to at least threaten other teams on the scouting report. Vic Beasley of Clemson not only brings that, but also the added versatility in being able to line up with his hand in the ground or at a linebacking spot.
12. St. Louis Rams: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State
St. Louis is only a couple of major pieces away from contending in the tough NFC West, but the Rams won't be a serious threat without a shutdown corner. That will have them taking a chance on Trae Waynes, Michigan State's sizable corner who has great one-on-one abilities.
13. Cleveland Browns: OT La'El Collins, LSU
The Browns have invested a couple of high draft picks in their offensive line in recent years, but the selection of La'El Collins would look to be the final piece. LSU's touted offensive tackle has the pedigree to line up opposite Joe Thomas on the other tackle spot.
14. San Francisco 49ers: DT Danny Shelton, Washington
The release of Ray McDonald makes an already-thin 49ers defensive line even thinner, and general manager Trent Baalke will be intent on fixing it via the draft. Danny Shelton is an absolute game-changer with the potential of growing into a dominant tackle, which is exactly what San Francisco's defense traditionally thrives upon.
15. Houston Texans: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Priority No. 1 for Houston is figuring out who's under center in 2015, but a close second will be adding some better protection for whoever it may be. The Texans can keep Cedric Ogbuehi close to home, but more importantly nab an athletic specimen who—if he develops like many expect him to—could become the top offensive lineman in this class when all is said and done.
16. Miami Dolphins: CB Ronald Darby, FSU
The Dolphins have been stout against the pass, ranking third in the league, but they don't have much long-term stability at cornerback. Miami would do well by grabbing Florida State's Ronald Darby, who has excelled covering some of the nation's best wideouts one-on-one and is no stranger to the spotlight.
17. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
Few teams have more of a need at a single position than the Chiefs do at wide receiver, which they can remedy with one single pick. OK, maybe Jaelen Strong won't be the answer all by himself, but the sizable Arizona State wideout will be an immediate improvement in the passing game for Alex Smith.
18. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
Thanks to last year's trade-down with Buffalo, the Browns can nab a dangerous skill-position player just a few picks after targeting a long-term tackle. There are big receivers available, but nobody would fit better with Cleveland's scheme than speedy deep-ball threat DeVante Parker, who can make an impact at all three levels—short, intermediate and deep.
19. Baltimore Ravens: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
The Ravens could go in a number of different directions in Round 1, but adding some depth to the offensive line would be best. Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley looks ready to jump in and fill whatever gap Baltimore needs, but he will eventually develop into a game-changing left tackle.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
Although Ifo Ekpre-Olomu won't play in the College Football Playoff after injuring his knee in practice, it won't keep a team like the Eagles—who not only are in desperate need for a corner, but also have a connection in former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly—from drafting him. When healthy, he's the best cornerback in the draft class. It won't take long for him to prove that in Philly.
21. San Diego Chargers: LB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
No team needs a middle-of-the-field general on defense more than San Diego, which makes Benardrick McKinney out of Mississippi State the perfect fit. McKinney has the instincts and intelligence to captain the Chargers defense right away, and he'll be a key performer right off the bat.
22. Carolina Panthers: OT Tyler Sambrailo, Colorado State
The Panthers were in a great position to grab one of the best players at their chief position of need—left tackle—until re-taking the NFC South lead in Week 16. Carolina won't mind trading a worse draft pick for a playoff return, and the value it'd find in Colorado State's Tyler Sambrailo would allow them to fill that left tackle hole long-term like it is hoping to do come April.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: FS Gerod Holliman, Louisville
Although the Steelers' passing defense is hanging in there, they really haven't addressed the loss of safety Ryan Clark. Without dominant safeties, Pittsburgh's defense is a shell of what it could be—so expect it to target instinctual free safety Gerod Holliman out of Louisville to shore up the unit.
24. Indianapolis Colts: OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
Andrew Luck has somehow excelled even despite an incomplete offensive line, which has been shown in the Colts' running-game problems. One pick won't change that, but it would be a great start to grab Miami tackle Ereck Flowers to spark an offensive line that needs sparking.
25. Cincinnati Bengals: DE Dante Fowler, Florida
The Bengals defense hasn't regressed as much as the numbers show, but some serious improvements are needed in the pass rush. Florida's Dante Fowler has been making his impact felt off the edge against the SEC's best offensive lines and will make his presence felt quick on a talented Cincinnati defense.
26. Arizona Cardinals: DE Alvin "Bud" Dupree, Kentucky
Although the Cardinals already boast one of the league's best front sevens, blitzing is perhaps the biggest key to their defensive success. They can grab Alvin "Bud" Dupree out of Kentucky with him taking a role of rushing the passer, using him on certain packages until he develops later on into a starter.
27. Dallas Cowboys: CB Alex Carter, Stanford
Dallas has showcased in 2014 that its defensive woes were greatly exaggerated heading into the season, but if there's one position the Cowboys could use some major improvement, it's at cornerback. Drafting Alex Carter will give the Cowboys some flexibility—he won't need to play much early on, but can fill in at the No. 3 spot and work his way into starting when others inevitably struggle.
28. Detroit Lions: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Even with Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, the Lions haven't been able to run the ball as well as they would hope to take the pressure off Matthew Stafford and the passing game. Detroit won't be able to pass up on taking the best running back to come out of college in quite some time, as Todd Gurley will rebound from his torn ACL and make a big impact as a rookie.
29. Green Bay Packers: DT Eddie Goldman, FSU
The Packers offense is virtually unstoppable, but the defense needs a couple of Band-Aids to get ready for another 2015 playoff run. The Pack haven't had a game-changing tackle on defense since B.J. Raji, but Eddie Goldman will threaten to make a similar impact when folks realize his true potential.
30. Seattle Seahawks: DT/DE Arik Armstead, Oregon
You can never have too many imposing linemen up front on defense, not in the NFC West and not when you rely on that aspect as much as the Seahawks. Arik Armstead plays with the chip on his shoulder that will fit in well in Seattle, and he can take some added time to develop behind a unit that is already pretty complete.
31. Denver Broncos: G A.J. Cann, South Carolina
The Broncos have fixed their offensive line troubles that plagued them early in the season, but with Peyton Manning still around, they will do everything they can to ensure that doesn't happen again. A.J. Cann is a bit of a reach here, but he fits exactly what Denver needs—a versatile interior lineman who can fill gaps created by injuries.
32. New England Patriots: WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
The same thing goes for Tom Brady as Manning—as long as he's around, the Patriots should be making his life as easy as possible. Getting a home run threat like Dorial Green-Beckham—with prototypical NFL size and speed as showcased by his tenure at Missouri—would be a welcomed commodity in the Patriots already-gaudy offense.
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