Expect a “Rebound” From 2008 MVP Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning will "rebound" from his 2008 MVP season and become a fantasy MVP once again.

Peyton Manning offers the one thing you look for the most in fantasy football. Manning is as consistent as they come. In today’s fantasy metagame, people are crawling up and down their cheat sheets for guys with upside so they tend to ignore Manning. He just isn’t a sexy pick anymore.

I’m here to tell you that Manning is indeed a sexy in 2009. Every single thing that could have gone wrong last season did go wrong and Manning looked adversity in the eyes and still lead his team to the playoffs while earning his 3rd MVP award. Let’s go through everything Manning had to deal with last season:

- Two knee surgeries which held him out of OTAs (organized team activities), training camp and the preseason. He could not get on sync with any of the younger members of the offense and it showed. The team’s offense was a mess in the first four games where Manning was very un-Manning-like with five interceptions to only five touchdowns.

- A run offense that wouldn’t scare my grandmother. An injured Addai and an uneffective Rhodes were the cause for the Colts ranking 31st in rushing offense. The Colts generally rank in the middle of the pack with their rushing offense which gives a little more credibility to the play-action pass. As you know, Peyton’s bread and butter is the play-action pass.

- The Colts had to move from the RCA Dome to Lucas Oil Stadium.

- Marvin Harrison was on the tail-end of his career and Manning had to adjust to his younger receivers. Marvin only caught 60 passes when he usually caught around 110 in his prime. 60 passes on this offense is not a #1 WR. Heck, 60 receptions from a possession-receiver is what we expect from a #3 WR on a crummy team.

- Obvious pain throughout the season. Manning kept most of the pain to himself so it wasn’t blown out of proportion but the many winces he displayed throughout the season told the tale of his less-than-fully healed knee. The knee brace he wore through the entire season should have told you it was not fully healed to begin with.

Manning might have been disguised last year by his first half stats, but the second half shows what he as in store for us this year.

Last year was one of Manning’s worst years statistically speaking. Don’t mistake these lowered stats for a decline in Manning’s skill. Manning has another four or five good years left in him and he has a market correction in store for people buying on him this year. If Manning’s floor (lowest expected stats) is 16 games, 27 TDs and 4000 PaYds…well I’ll take that. The once perennial first-round pick is now found deserted in a ditch somewhere in the third round.

If I was to draft a QB early this year, it’d be Manning.  Not Brees, not Brady…I’d draft Manning. Take a look at Manning’s last nine games (17TD, 3INT, 2248 PaYds), that will give you a good idea of what to expect from a healed, prepared Peyton this year.

Forecast for Peyton Manning in 2009:
31 TD, 8 INT, 4100 PaYds.