Fantasy Football 2014: 5 Benched Players Owners Should Start

The old adage remains the same as the 2014 fantasy football playoffs build to a championship crescendo: dance with the one who brought you.

That wisdom tends to pay dividends in Week 16 every year, but what if the one who brought you isn’t dancing like they used to? Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy and Peyton Manning owners beware; Jonathan Stewart, Fred Jackson and Matthew Stafford make stronger starts this week.

The benched players recommended on this list are currently starting in less than roughly 60 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Honorable Mentions

USA TODAY Sports

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots over Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos

The only reason Edelman didn’t crack the top five is because he has yet to pass protocol on the mysterious concussion suffered this past week. His 366 receiving yards rank eighth among wide receivers over the past four games, according to NFL.com.

Sanders racked up 307 yards in the same stretch, but he logged zero touchdowns. Denver’s new run-heavy approach is detrimental to the WR2 in Cincinnati for Week 16.

Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams over DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Mason garnered an honorable mention because St. Louis faces the 25th-ranked New York Giants defense in running back points allowed. It’s a great matchup on paper, even though the Giants haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in three weeks, or a running back touchdown in five.

The problem is the Rams offense performs inconsistently, making it difficult to fully endorse him for such an important week.

Murray owners are drawing blood chomping on fingernails as the optimism on his broken finger remains muted. History says Murray could play, in which case all this alarm is just academic.

Kenny Stills/Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints over Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

Stills and Colston sit outside the top five because they split the workload in the void left by Brandin Cooks, making it difficult to predict who will top-out each week.

Jeffery’s prospects—ranked 11th among wide receivers averaging 10.8 points per game—took a major hit when Jay Cutler was benched in favor of Jimmy Clausen.

"

To repeat and now confirmed: Bears starting QB Jimmy Clausen over Jay Cutler on Sunday vs. Detroit, per sources.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 17, 2014

"

Sure Josh McCown debuted nicely for Cutler in a similar scenario last year, confirming Marc Trestman’s reputation as a quarterback groomer. But do you really want to trust this dysfunctional Bears offense with your championship dreams?

I wouldn’t trust any of them besides Matt Forte.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons over Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Ryan would be an automatic top-five call this week if he had any healthy receivers. Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas are all listed as questionable on the injury report.

Ryan ranks second behind only Drew Brees in quarterback scoring over the past four weeks, according to NFL.com. Monitor the injury report before trusting Ryan in this climactic week.

Why Manning? Read on for more details…

5. Vincent Jackson over Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

USA TODAY Sports

Jackson played second fiddle to Tampa’s first-round phenom when Evans exploded for a 24.7 PPG-average during Weeks 9 through 11.

The pendulum swung back in Jackson’s favor over the past four weeks, but few noticed because Evans padded his measly 38.5 yards per game with four touchdowns. Jackson averaged 92.5 yards during that stretch, ranking seventh among wide receivers in yardage, according to NFL.com.

Few noticed Jackson’s turnaround because Evans snagged all the end-zone looks, leaving Jackson without a single score since Week 4.

Tampa hosts Green Bay and its 24th-ranked defense in wide receiver points allowed. The Buccaneers defense ranks even lower against wide receivers (28th), meaning this matchup will probably be handled through the air.

Jackson is currently starting in 22.2 percent of ESPN leagues, compared to Evans’ 73.0 rating. That means most owners are banking on those four catches for touchdowns from the rookie, compared to 23 catches for 370 yards for the veteran during the past four games.

The odds are just as good that Jackson will break his scoreless streak as Evans will continue hogging all the touchdowns.

Make the calculated move and choose Jackson.

4. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs over Anyone Not Named Rob Gronkowski

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Kelce is currently starting in 63.7 percent of ESPN leagues. That’s a good showing, but the second-year focal point of the Chiefs passing offense should be closer to Gronkowski’s 99.2 rating.

Only Gronkowski (359) tabbed more receiving yards than Kelce (272) over the past four games, according to NFL.com. Kelce managed just one touchdown during that stretch, but no tight end boasts more than two in the past four weeks.

Kelce leads all tight ends with at least 30 targets with an 81.2-percent catch rate, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He ranks second on the Chiefs, earning 17.1 percent of Alex Smith’s targets, and first with 20.5 percent of the receptions and 25.2 percent of the receiving yards.

He also leads the team with five receiving touchdowns.

Kansas City is lining up a track meet with Pittsburgh in Week 16. The Steelers rank 25th in tight end points allowed. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in overall passing yards allowed, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.  

Plus, Steelers All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu is listed as doubtful on the injury report.

All these factors align to rate Kelce a safer start than Jimmy Graham (96.7), Greg Olsen (86.7) or Antonio Gates (72.5).

• Graham because his participation is inconsistent and unpredictable, as demonstrated by his snap count courtesy of PFF. A top-tier tight end shouldn’t miss 28.9 percent of the passing plays and watch Josh Hill vulture two touchdowns. Graham ranks seventh among tight ends in scoring over the past four weeks, according to NFL.com.
• Olsen is as solid as they come but a matchup against the seventh-ranked Cleveland Browns defense in tight end points against could be suffocating this week. This is especially true given the Browns weakness against the run—ranked 31st overall in rushing yards allowed—which is Carolina’s strength; it is ranked 12th overall.
• Gates rates third among tight ends with 10 touchdowns, dropping to ninth in yardage (44.1 yards per game). He averages 11.4 yards per catch to Kelce’s 13.3 on a nearly identical amount of receptions—56 to 58 respectively. If Gates doesn’t score, neither will you.

Move Kelce to the starting lineup unless Gronkowski is the alternative.

3. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers over Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Stewart ranks ninth in rushing yards over the past four weeks (105 YPG), ironically coming in one spot below Lynch over that span, according to NFL.com. Carolina was on bye Week 12, meaning Stewart racked up 315 yards in just three games.

Stewart’s rushing number skyrocketed from averaging 10.7 carries for 45.3 through nine games to 21 for 115 in the two starts since DeAngelo Williams broke his hand in Week 13. Stewart gets the starting nod again in Week 16 as Williams continues to recover.

"

Rivera indicated DeAngelo won't play.

— Joe Person (@josephperson) December 19, 2014

"

Carolina draws a Cleveland defense vulnerable to the run, ranking second to last in rushing yards allowed (128.5 YPG). Cam Newton’s return further exposes the Browns since the quarterback ranks second among his peers with 35.4 rushing yards per game.

"

Cam Newton was full practice today.

— Steve Reed (@SteveReedAP) December 18, 2014

"

Lynch’s injury status isn’t a concern since he was upgraded to probable as seems to be the weekly ritual late in the season.

The biggest obstacle facing the third-ranked rusher in fantasy points is Arizona’s second-ranked defense in running back points allowed. The Cardinals rank sixth in rushing yards allowed (84.4 YPG), and they are tied for fourth with just seven running-back touchdowns against.

Arizona dominated the strength of Seattle’s offense in Week 12, holding Lynch to just 39 yards rushing—his second-lowest tally in 2014. This matchup of the top-two NFC West foes figures to be another low-scoring slugfest with third-stringer Ryan Lindley starting at quarterback for the Cardinals.

"

BA: Ryan Lindley will start vs Seahawks.

— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) December 19, 2014

"

Stewart—starting in 53.7 percent of ESPN leagues—will almost certainly outscore Lynch—starting in 97.7.

Are you willing to play the percentages with Stewart, or live with the inevitable from Lynch in your championship game?

2. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills over LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Jackson continues to roll nearly anonymously as Buffalo’s all-purpose weapon, tied for 10th in running-back receiving yards with 104 over the past four weeks, according to NFL.com. He posted either 70 total yards or a touchdown in each contest through that stretch.

Buffalo travels to Oakland to take advantage of the league’s 31st-ranked defense in running back points against. The Raiders surrendered 12 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns to running backs coming into Week 16, the second-most in the NFL.

Such a juicy matchup leaves little doubt Jackson will improve on his three-total touchdowns scored this season.

McCoy owners know all too well how up and down he’s been in 2014. Darren Sproles is stealing receptions, and Chris Polk is poaching touchdowns.

Philadelphia faces a Washington defense ranked third in running back points allowed compared to 27th against wide receivers, 31st against tight ends and 32nd against quarterbacks. Lopsided stats like that sway the game-planning outside of McCoy’s favor.

Jason Hatcher’s absence, per Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Washington, from Washington’s pass rush only amplifies the Redskins' exposure through the air.

McCoy—starting in 92.4 percent of ESPN leagues—is more likely to stumble once again at the end of a disappointing campaign.

Jackson—60.1-percent started—is poised to shine. Ignore the reputations and make the bold choice.

1. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions over Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Stafford saunters into Week 16 ranked fifth in passing yards (279.5) in his past four games, per NFL.com. He threw six touchdowns and one interception during that stretch, showing he is enjoying the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson.

It’s a welcome turnaround in a disappointing 2014 campaign in which Stafford ranks 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Owners expected so much more, making him the fifth QB taken in average draft position headed into the season.

Stafford’s prospects are further boosted by a matchup with the declawed Chicago Bears pass defense—ranked 31st in quarterback points surrendered. Chicago leads the league in passing touchdowns allowed with 33.

Manning owners weathered an equally opposite stretch over the past four weeks. He ranked 17th in overall fantasy scoring—according to NFL.com—while suffering with the flu and a thigh injury.

Weather conditions, stingy pass defenses and unfriendly road games all contributed to Manning’s malaise. The Broncos also shifted offensive strategy to a run-first approach behind the surprisingly prolific C.J. Anderson—ranked second among running backs in scoring over the past four weeks, per NFL.com.

Considering the factors that stacked against Manning over the past four games, Monday’s matchup at Cincinnati doesn’t bode well.

• Manning wavers on the road, posting a 93.1 passer rating in seven games compared to 123.6 at home through seven as well.
• Manning’s value depreciates in the cold and the forecast is 46 and cloudy in Cincinnati, per NFL Weather.com.
• Cincinnati ranks sixth in quarterback points against, second vs. wide receivers. The Bengals rank 28th against the run on the other hand, indicating Denver should continue to ground-and-pound in Week 16.

Manning’s starting percentage already dipped to 86.0 heading into Week 16, thanks to his 9.3-point average over the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, Stafford’s only starting in 63.4 percent of leagues with a far better matchup and recent track record.

Ignore the names, acknowledge the game, riding Stafford to fantasy glory in Week 16.

All statistics and rankings courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Fantasy points are based on ESPN standard scoring unless otherwise noted.