MMA in 2014: 10 Burning Questions Heading into 2015
2014 is over and done with, and the year will go down as one of the toughest in MMA history.
The MMA stars of yesteryear completed their exodus from the competition end of the sport. Fans' patience was tested time and again, both as they were subjected to largely terrible cards on a weekly basis and saw what few great fights remained get cancelled. Promotional wackiness reached an all-time high, while bottom lines hit a serious low. The bohemian approach to business is resulting in some serious comeuppance.
But hey, it can only go up from here, right? 2015 has arrived and with it comes the potential for the sport to move in a variety of directions in multiple ways.
So when all is said and done, what are the biggest questions that the sport is facing? How might they be answered? Find out here!
Will Bellator Become a Bigger Presence During Negotiations?
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What Happened in 2014?
One of the most important stories of 2014 was a relatively subtle one. Back in February, Gilbert Melendez came to terms on a contract with Bellator amid a dispute with the UFC. While Zuffa would battle back by matching the deal, Bellator sent a very clear message, even in defeat.
The UFC is no longer the only game in town. Bellator can and will make plays for top-level, marketable fighters when they become available.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Contract issues with high-profile UFC fighters are becoming increasingly common. Melendez, Nate Diaz, Jon Jones and Ronda Rousey have all had issues over the last 13 months, and while the UFC would get its way in each of those cases, more and more power is shifting into the hands of fighters.
With Viacom becoming more invested in Bellator, taking more control of the company and showing more of a willingness to splurge on free agents, it might just be a matter of time before Bellator can pull off a coup with a big-name fighter.
What Will Happen with the Recently Announced UFC Lawsuit?
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What Happened in 2014?
Last year around this time, I discussed my surprise at fighters daring to voice their less-than-positive opinions on Zuffa. What a difference a year makes. Jon Fitch, Nate Quarry and Cung Le filed a class-action lawsuit against the UFC. Pablo Garza, Brandon Vera, Dennis Hallman and Javier Vazquez have since gotten in on the action.
This battle could define the sport of MMA for years to come.
What Could Happen in 2015?
The lawsuit may or may not be successful. It may or may not be settled. Either way, this will likely drag on well past 2015. In the short term, there will be two running storylines.
First, the discovery portion of the case could potentially bring the secretive inner workings of Zuffa to light. Remember, the mysterious UFC fighter contract became part of the public sphere during the legal battle between Eddie Alvarez and Bellator in 2013...and that didn't actually involve Zuffa directly. Details like fighter wages and pay-per-view buyrates could finally come to light.
Second, of course, will be seeing which fighters get in on this action. Active UFC fighters have been tellingly quiet on social media (the only fighter to openly come out in favor of the lawsuit is Ryan Jimmo). However, names from years past such as former lightweight champion Sean Sherk and fan favorite Cody McKenzie have been unafraid to voice their opinions on the matter. In all likelihood, the ranks will swell in 2015.
Can/Will Pay-Per-View Buyrates Turn Around?
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What Happened in 2014?
UFC pay-per-view buys plummeted in 2014.
How much? See for yourself.
Why? That remains to be seen.
Whether it was the frequent breakdown of interesting fights or the oversaturation thing you've heard so much about, pay-per-view revenue has dipped so low that even Dana White couldn't no-sell the UFC's troubles. That said, things were definitely stacked against the UFC in 2014. If the numbers stay low in the first quarter of 2015, Zuffa might just have some serious thinking to do when it comes to its current business model.
What Could Happen in 2015?
The average buyrate of a UFC pay-per-view in 2014 will likely land under 250,000. The highest-bought card was UFC 175, which was estimated at 545,000. Our own Chad Dundas did a great job of breaking down the company's struggles earlier this year, and that was well before UFC 174, 177, 179 and 180 all clocked in less than 200,000 buys.
In the UFC's defense, 2014 was a year that saw Johny Hendricks, Chris Weidman, Cain Velasquez, Anthony Pettis, Ronda Rousey and Jon Jones spend considerable time on the shelf. One could make a strong case that the UFC's struggles are not necessarily because of a shift away from pay-per-view, but because many of the year's best fights fell through.
The UFC has stacked the heck out of 2015's first three pay-per-view events, with Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier, Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz, Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort and Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano all set to go down in a three-month span. If that isn't enough to turn things around, those dwindling numbers might not just be bad luck.
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What Will Happen with Brock Lesnar?
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What Happened in 2014?
While the UFC certainly likes to say #TheTimeIsNow (it was the company's Twitter handle for a little while, in fact), judging by how things have gone in 2014, a more accurate hashtag would be #TheTimeWas2009. And the UFC isn't the only offender, either.
Indeed, one of the overarching storylines of 2014 has been the question of which MMA stars from years past will return to the sport. Georges St-Pierre, Gina Carano, Anderson Silva, Nick Diaz, Brock Lesnar and BJ Penn all got an extra 15 minutes of fame in 2014, which really demonstrates how detrimental the UFC's promotion-first approach to the fight game has become.
Most of those fighters' futures became clear before year's end, though. Fittingly, only The One (in 21-1) remains.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz are, of course, set to return to MMA at UFC 183. Penn came back for The Ultimate Fighter 19 Finale, and, well, everything that needed to be said about that fight can be found here. Carano, in all likelihood, was merely teasing an MMA return to generate hype for her upcoming film and gain extra leverage at the bargaining table for her in-the-works movie deals.
St-Pierre returning to MMA feels more and more unlikely by the hour. The fact that his BFF, Rory MacDonald, is on the welterweight title contention short list doesn't help, either. Neither does the fact that he is suddenly a hot commodity in Hollywood.
That leaves The Beast. With his WWE contract set to expire in March 2015, he will be the prize in a three-way race between the UFC, WWE and Bellator. That contest will be one of the biggest things to watch out for in 2015.
How Will the Reebok Deal Shake out for Fighters?
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What Happened in 2014?
The UFC made lots of headlines with its announcement of an exclusive sponsorship deal with Reebok. While the deal may or may not shake out to be a boon for fighters once it kicks in, the outlook between now and July is quite ugly.
Speaking with Joe Rogan, heavyweight veteran Brendan Schaub discussed how he took a major hit to his wallet because of the Reebok deal, and he said that the Jackson-Winkeljohn camp had lost "all their monthly sponsors."
Reading between the lines of Urijah Faber's interview with ESPN and looking at Renan Barao's near-sponsorless trunks at Fight Night 58 suggest it is not just midcard fighters feeling the pinch, either. What's more, the concerns expressed by Demetrious Johnson and the obvious uneasiness of Chris Weidman certainly make it feel like even the handful of fighters who managed to thrive off the current sponsorship pool will not be better off.
What Could Happen in 2015?
How things will shake out is anyone's guess, but do not expect the UFC to be particularly sympathetic to its fighters' plights if things continue trending downward. The death of the sponsorship market was largely of its own design, and when competing on UFC Fight Pass, the promotion's developing digital streaming service, proved less than lucrative for fighters, Dana White flatly said that it was "not [his] f---ing problem."
Whether intentional or not, it seems like fighters are going to be taking a big hit over the next six months. Hopefully, the deal winds up being every bit as beneficial as it was purported to be.
What the Heck Will Happen with CM Punk?
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What Happened in 2014?
By a strong margin, the biggest MMA-related story of 2014 was the UFC's signing of former WWE superstar CM Punk. You might not like it, you might not accept it, but it's done. However, while Punk (real name Phil Brooks) is already a media darling, basically no information on who he is as a fighter exists at this time.
There are many questions and next to no answers when it comes to Punk. That will need to change after we hang new calendars.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Punk has discussed that he is eyeballing late 2015 for his debut. That is a smart move on his part, of course, as he will need as much time as possible to gain and hone some skills. That said, 10 months is a very, very long time in terms of sports-related hype.
The CM Punk iron is at its hottest right now, and it will almost certainly cool off in a big way by fall 2015. How good Punk can get in a limited amount of time will be interesting to see. The more important question, however, is whether his presence in the UFC will translate into the hundreds of thousands of eyeballs the promotion is hoping for, even after three quarters of relative silence.
Will MMA Doubleheaders and Tripleheaders Become the Norm?
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What Happened in 2014?
At one point, outside promotions wanted no part in competing with the UFC directly. If the UFC claimed any given Saturday night, every other promotion got out of the way.
Bellator, however, is challenging the UFC at every opportunity and opted to go head-to-head with Zuffa twice in 2014 (Fight Night 50 vs. Bellator 123, and UFC 180 vs. Bellator 131 vs. WSOF 15). Even World Series of Fighting has been getting in on that action.
The good thing for fans is that the promotions have consistently tried to one-up one another by delivering stronger-than-average cards. The bad, of course, is that watching multiple MMA events at the same time is a major headache.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Bellator fight nights will still primarily be on Fridays, and as it stands, the promotion is set to avoid the UFC through March. However, Bellator's current plan of a monthly event and four "big" shows on Saturday nights could run it up against the UFC. It will be interesting to see whether it works around the UFC schedule (which was released in full in November) or continues to go right after the competition.
Can Any Foreign Promotions Plant Roots in America?
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What Happened in 2014?
While there are allegations of the UFC being a monopoly, there are more promotions of note now than ever before. Two of the most interesting members of that lot are Poland's KSW and Singapore's One FC. While both organizations are big on talent and showmanship, neither organization has anything resembling visibility in the United States.
What Could Happen in 2015?
One FC has a few recognizable names in Shinya Aoki, Bibiano Fernandes and Ben Askren. KSW, while its biggest names are not quite as identifiable, own a trifecta of formidable fighters in Mamed Khalidov, Mariusz Pudzianowski and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The talent is most certainly there...but the brand awareness is not.
That isn't good. Granted, One FC is on relatively secure footing in China, and KSW has a death grip on Poland and the majority of its talent. Putting on digital-only pay-per-view events, however, can only be regarded as a missed opportunity.
What Will the "Oversaturated" UFC Be Like with Fewer Injured Champions?
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What Happened in 2014?
There is no question that the UFC's 45-event 2014 was ambitious. While it was easy to predict that things wouldn't go swimmingly, only Sam Beckett could have foreseen the terrors that would be wrought upon MMA fans.
The biggest problem, of course, was the near-absence of title fights. Just 16 championship bouts were spread across 45 events. It didn't stop there, though.
Blue-chip non-title matchups like Daniel Cormier vs. Rashad Evans, Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Donald Cerrone and Vitor Belfort vs. Chael Sonnen were scrapped, hollowing out once-compelling cards.
The rotten cherry on top? Fan favorites including (but not limited to) Chan-Sung Jung, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz, Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit and Joe Lauzon all either sat out most of 2014 or spent the entire year on the pine.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Depending on who you ask, 45 events in 12 months is an unsustainable clip, regardless of what happens with the champions. Heck, of the 16 bouts that actually did happen in 2014, many of them were hastily slapped together, like TJ Dillashaw vs. Joe Soto, Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso and Fabricio Werdum vs. Mark Hunt.
That said...look at that lineup in January. There are four events headlined by Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier, Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver, Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson and Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz. February isn't quite as good but has the stacked UFC 184 and two developing Fight Nights.
That is compelling, no matter how much of a Negative Nancy you are.
Are there still loads of unknown fighters who almost promise to put on boring fights? Sure. Do the cards, on a case-by-case basis, stack up against their brethren from 2011 and earlier? Of course not.
But you can't tell me that those first seven cards of 2015 don't look a heck of a lot better than most of what we saw in 2014. If the UFC can stretch that sort of intrigue across the entire year, there might just be enough in the way of good times to forget that you don't get free weekends anymore.
Will Ronda Rousey Be Lured to Hollywood?
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What Happened in 2014?
Like Gina Carano before her, Ronda Rousey has kicked down the doors to Hollywood stardom. And you know what? The bucks are beaucoup, and the degree of difficulty is un peu (pardon my French).
In 2014, Rousey was attached to three high-profile movies; The Expendables 3, Entourage and Furious 7. If that trend continues, there is little reason for her to bother with MMA.
What Could Happen in 2015?
Rousey is already hinting that her UFC 184 fight with Cat Zingano may be her last, and as stated, it is hard to blame her. Her legacy as one of the greatest forces in women's MMA, both competitively and promotionally, is already set in stone. Not only that, but her two biggest potential fights, against a returning Carano and a bantamweight Cris "Cyborg" Justino, have both been taken off the table.
Sure, Zingano is a challenge. And sure, there are interesting contenders on the rise like Holly Holm, Bethe Correia and Jessica Eye. The bottom line with Rousey, however, is that nothing is really keeping her in the UFC outside her own evaporating competitive drive.
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