NFL Playoffs 2014-15: Latest Postseason Chances and Final AFC, NFC Predictions
Get ready, we're heading into the 2014 NFL season's most pivotal week of football.
Four teams can clinch a first-round bye in the postseason, five teams can clinch their respective division titles and a total of eight teams can clinch playoff berths. Yeah, there's a bevy of compelling scenarios set to take place over the final 15 games in the season's penultimate week.
Although, there is still uncertainty swirling around some other playoff contenders heading into Week 16. Yes, eight teams can clinch playoff spots this week, but there are a total of 17 teams still in contention to participate in January's action. What are each team's chances of getting in?
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Luckily, the good folks at Football Outsiders have simulated the remaining season 50,000 times, giving us the latest percentages of every contender punching its ticket to the playoffs. Let's take a look at what that picture looks like prior to the weekend's action and follow it up with some final postseason predictions.
Current Playoff Picture
Latest Postseason Chances
| East | New England Patriots | 100.0% |
| East | Buffalo Bills | 6.4% |
| North | Baltimore Ravens | 87.6% |
| North | Pittsburgh Steelers | 81.5% |
| North | Cincinnati Bengals | 78.2% |
| South | Indianapolis Colts | 100.0% |
| South | Houston Texans | 2.2% |
| West | Denver Broncos | 100.0% |
| West | Kansas City Chiefs | 34.1% |
| West | San Diego Chargers | 10.0% |
| East | Dallas Cowboys | 86.1% |
| East | Philadelphia Eagles | 35.3% |
| North | Green Bay Packers | 92.8% |
| North | Detroit Lions | 88.9% |
| South | New Orleans Saints | 65.0% |
| South | Atlanta Falcons | 21.0% |
| South | Carolina Panthers | 14.0% |
| West | Arizona Cardinals | 100.0% |
| West | Seattle Seahawks | 96.9% |
All postseason chances courtesy of Football Outsiders and current as of December 19.
Final Postseason Predictions
| 1 | New England Patriots (13-3) | 1 | Seattle Seahawks (12-4) |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (13-3) | 2 | Green Bay Packers (12-4) |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts (11-5) | 3 | Dallas Cowboys (12-4) |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens (11-5) | 4 | Atlanta Falcons (7-9) |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) | 5 | Arizona Cardinals (12-4) |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) | 6 | Detroit Lions (11-5) |
So, there we have it—the NFL's 12 representatives to the postseason. Of course, the likely question on your mind right now is this: How did these predictions come to fruition? Well, let's discuss.
On the AFC side, our two bye-week teams are rather predictable. The New England Patriots finish off their season with wins over the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills to improve to 13-3 on the year and gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Denver Broncos take down the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16—a team that struggles in prime time—and defeat the Oakland Raiders in Week 17 to earn the No. 2 seed.
The Indianapolis Colts may find it difficult to defeat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16 if wide receiver T.Y. Hilton isn't on the field. Indianapolis hasn't been moving the ball as well of late, so his absence will lead to a loss. However, finishing off the season with a win against the struggling Tennessee Titans will provide the team with some momentum heading into the playoffs as the No. 3 seed.
At No. 4 is a surprise team—the Baltimore Ravens. With games against Case Keenum's Houston Texans and Johnny Manziel's Cleveland Browns remaining, Baltimore is likely to win out. Cincinnati's loss to Denver takes it out of the top spot, and once the Bengals even the series with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17, the Ravens move to the top of the AFC North.
That leaves the Bengals and Steelers as the wild-card teams. Cincinnati's solid secondary isn't likely to blow a game against the Steelers in the fourth quarter twice in one season, so the Bengals get the nod for the No. 5 seed with a slightly better record.
There are plenty of changes on the NFC side, and it all starts with the Seattle Seahawks. It's easy to speculate a victory over Ryan Lindley's Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, and finishing the season off with a victory over the St. Louis Rams will result in home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the Seahawks. Yes, that's a scary thought, indeed.
With both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions winning in Week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears, respectively, the NFC North comes down to a clash between the two teams in Week 17. We've all seen how good Aaron Rodgers has been at Lambeau Field this season, so the Packers get the win, the division and a first-round bye.
A projected victory over the Colts, followed by a win over the Washington Redskins in Week 17, will propel the Cowboys to finish atop the NFC East and earn the No. 3 seed for the playoffs, losing out on a first-round bye to the Packers due to a conference-record tiebreaker.
The Atlanta Falcons claim the No. 4 seed by winning out. This won't be an easy task, with games against the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to finish the season, but the team's offensive line is finally playing better and Matt Ryan has hit his stride. If this is the case, Atlanta's 7-9 record won't matter, as it will be on a roll entering the playoffs.
After losing to the Seahawks in Week 16, the Cardinals finish off the regular season with a victory over the struggling San Francisco 49ers with Drew Stanton back at the helm—he showed progress in his recovery so far this week. That's good enough to get to 12-4 on the season and finish at the No. 5 seed.
The final wild-card spot goes to the Lions after losing the division to the Packers. A record of 11-5 will be just good enough to get them into the playoffs over the Philadelphia Eagles due to a conference-record tiebreaker.
All playoff scenarios and tiebreakers courtesy of CBSSports.com and current as of December 19.
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