Kansas' Top Freshmen Face Wavering NBA Draft Status
Now a month into the college hoops calendar, with the 2015 NBA draft conversation in full swing, the Kansas' projected one-and-done freshmen are quietly slipping out of it.
Kelly Oubre, a wing, and Cliff Alexander, a power forward, entered the year with enormous expectations. And based on what we've seen so far, those expectations just weren't very fair.
Maybe we can place some blame on Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid—Kansas' top freshmen last year who quickly emerged as impact players and top-three draft candidates.
Like Wiggins and Embiid, Oubre and Alexander were both viewed as elite recruits and talents out of high school. From the McDonald's All-American game and Jordan Brand Classic to the Nike Hoop Summit and Adidas Nations, they'd been building up their images as top-of-the-line NBA prospects.
Given the recent impact of some of the more highly touted freshmen in the college game, it was only natural to think Oubre and Alexander could start making noise right off the bat.
Only that hasn't been the case through nine games, which included a few big ones NBA scouts likely had highlighted on their schedules.
Oubre played 13 minutes against Kentucky, six against Michigan State, eight against Florida and a season-best 17 against Utah. Alexander has at least gotten some time, though he totaled just five made field goals on 19 attempts in those four games combined.
Kelly Oubre
Oubre's lack of playing time is probably the bigger surprise. Prior to the season, he had just generated all sorts of positive buzz for himself during the summer, starting with the LeBron James Nike Skills Academy:
A month later, he put up 20 points on Arizona's Stanley Johnson, another highly regarded prospect with top-10 draft aspirations, in one of the camp games at Adidas Nations, per Scott Phillips and Raphielle Johnson of CollegeBasketballTalk.
In terms of the scouting report, Oubre is an ultra-athletic wing with a sweet lefty jumper and tremendous scoring instincts. On paper, his physical profile and skill set scream next-level potential.
But judging one's talent and his ability to exploit it are two separates facets of the evaluation process. And Oubre is going to have a tough time selling himself for the 2015 draft unless he finds a way to make an impact before it.
Unfortunately, he just hasn't earned the trust of coach Bill Self early on.
"Yeah, I've gotten that a lot lately...because, you know, I've never been in a situation like this," Oubre said when asked how he's doing with such a reduced role, via CBS Sports' Gary Parrish. "I've always been at the top. But just keeping my confidence 100 is all I can do right now, and I'm just going to continue to do what coach needs me to do."
Even when he has played, Oubre hasn't looked overly comfortable, particularly at the defensive end.
Although it hasn't been much better on offense, where he's shooting 34.8 percent and averaging 3.4 points per game.
To his credit, he's looked more confident as of late. He scored nine points against Utah last Saturday, having nailed a baseline pull-up jumper and top-of-the-arc three-ball. Although the fact we're using this mini breakout as a sign of encouragement just speaks to how far away Oubre really is.
For what it's worth, coach Self has defended both his freshmen and his strategy early on:
"Mario Chalmers didn't play till Christmas [of his freshman year], Julian Wright didn't play till Christmas, Joel [Embiid] didn't start until like the eighth game of the season. So there's a process everybody has to go through, and we have a couple of guys—obviously Kelly but also Cliff—who are going through it.
"
Cliff Alexander
On the other hand, Alexander's case is a little different. He's averaging a respectable 19 minutes per game (Embiid played 23.1), and he's had some nice moments early on, most notably his 12-point, 10-rebound, 8-of-8 from-the-line showing against Florida and a 16-point performance against Tennessee.
Alexander ultimately has a terrific motor and plenty of athletic ability. And it's led to strong finishes and an impressive 19.35 rebounding percentage.
But at 6'8" without the ability to do much outside the paint, Alexander has looked undersized inside, where his post game is limited to begin with.
“He’s not tall enough, and it was very evident tonight, to score over that length,” Self told the Chicago-Sun Times Steve Goldberg after Alexander shot 2-of-7 against Kentucky's NBA-caliber front line.
He recently failed to record a field goal in 14 minutes against Jakob Poeltl and Utah last Saturday.
With a raw skill set and questionable size for his preferred style of play, Alexander hasn't quite jumped out as a guy worth reaching on in the draft—at least not in 2015.
And ironically, despite his superior production, it's Alexander's draft stock that might be more vulnerable.
Oubre hasn't been given much of a chance to build any rhythm or confidence on the floor. Not much has really changed with regard to his NBA ceiling, which is still top-10 worthy.
For the most part, we've seen the package Alexander offers in full, and it just hasn't been overly convincing from an upside perspective.
Regardless, both prospects will have something to prove in order to restore some of their lost believability as can't-miss NBA prospects.
At this current stage in their journey to the pros, Alexander and Oubre have each found themselves in two different holes. And quite frankly, unless we see some changes, it might take a second year at Kansas for both of them to get out.
Advanced stats courtesy of realgm.com.
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