5 Surprising Statistics That Are Defining the Washington Wizards' Season
Heading into the season, most assumed that the Washington Wizards—by virtue of their stingy defense—would be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Thus far, that assumption has proved to be dead on.
The Wizards are a great defensive club, and they currently sit second in the East with an 18-6 record.
But just because the Wizards have been predictable in the grand scheme of things doesn't mean there haven't been surprises along the way. In fact, Washington's season has been full of twists.
Let's examine some of those surprises and take a look at how they might impact the Wizards down the road.
John Wall's Assist Numbers
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John Wall led the league in total assists last year. So it's not exactly a huge surprise that he's set to repeat the feat this season.
However, Wall's improvement as a passer (and he was excellent last year) is a shocker.
Wall ranks either first or second in every major passing category—assist rate, free-throw assists, secondary assists, points created by assists...you name it. Over the past month, Wall has averaged 13.2 assists per game, racking up two 17-assist outings.
In fact, he's failed to record double-digit helpers only once this month—he had eight in a Dec. 14 game against the Utah Jazz.
Assist numbers aren't always indicative of a great offensive player. But in Wall's case, they are. Grantland's Zach Lowe recently commented on Wall's passing:
"Wall is throwing the kind of next-level passes that mark a truly great distributor. He isn’t reacting to a defense’s rotation and then hitting the open man. He’s anticipating the next rotation, and even coaxing it with a smart dribble or fake designed to get the defense leaning one way — only for Wall to fire the ball someplace else.
"
This pass against the Minnesota Timberwolves is just one example of what Lowe's talking about.
It looks innocuous at first—Wall simply loops around the Marcin Gortat pick and fires a pass to Rasual Butler in the corner. But if you watch closely, you'll see that Wall actually passes the ball before Shabazz Muhammad breaks toward the rolling Gortat. He anticipated Muhammad's movement and took advantage of it. Amazing.
Lack of Three-Point Attempts
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The Wizards are shooting just 16 threes per game, a big drop from the 20.8 they launched last year. To be fair, they are averaging 16.9 shots from deep since Bradley Beal returned. But while that's a step in the right direction, it's still far from ideal.
Washington (accurately) sees itself as a legitimate East contender. But historically—or at least recently—conference finalists have all bombed away from three at a much higher rate than the Wizards have this year.
A few teams have bucked that trend over the past few seasons, notably the 2011-12 Miami Heat and the 2012-13 Memphis Grizzlies. But those squads got to the rim and/or the line at a much higher rate than the Wizards currently do.
Washington lives mostly on a diet of mid-range jumpers, and it shoots well from that distance. However, many of those jumpers are of the foot-on-the-line variety or close to it, per NBAWowy.com. Those could easily be turned into threes with a little tweaking, and that's what's so frustrating about the Wizards offense.
Between Beal, Butler, Otto Porter and Paul Pierce, they should be living at the three-point line.
Thankfully, there's some hope for Washington fans. It sounds like Martell Webster, who's recovering from a back injury, will be back on the court soon. Webster averaged 4.8 three-point attempts per game last season and should give the Wizards a big boost from outside.
Wide Distribution of Minutes
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The Wizards have doled out 200-plus minutes to a whopping 12 players this year. Only one genuine contender—the Oklahoma City Thunder—can match that.
Injuries to Webster, Nene and Beal have played a big part in Washington handing minutes to so many players. But it's also becoming more and more clear that the Wizards are simply a deep team with a lot of solid lineup options. DeJuan Blair is only getting garbage minutes, for crying out loud!
At this point, Drew Gooden and Garrett Temple appear to have played their way out of the rotation. That doesn't mean they won't be seeing at least some time moving forward, though.
Both players have defined roles—Gooden as a stretch 4 and Temple as a lockdown wing defender. Plus, the Wizards have fared relatively well with the two of them on the floor, especially when they share time with some of the Washington starters.
There's a chance that all of this depth comes to nothing in the playoffs, when most teams shorten their rotations to nine or 10 players at the most. Even so, it's nice to have so many capable bodies, especially on a team that seems to pile up nagging injuries.
Washington has 12 players (at least) that it can plug in and expect rotation-caliber minutes from. That's a luxury that few teams—even the contenders—share.
Paul Pierce and John Wall's Defensive Metrics
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The Wizards are holding opponents to 98.9 points per 100 possessions this season. That's good for fifth in the NBA and is the best mark of any Eastern team by a comfortable margin.
Washington was a strong defensive team last season, but it was nowhere near this good. And that was when Trevor Ariza, by all accounts a strong wing defender, was still on the roster.
Nene has been predictably terrific defensively. But Pierce and Wall have been almost just as good, and that's a huge surprise.
Last season, Wall was an OK defender, but certainly not a good one. ESPN's real plus-minus system pegged him as a slight negative defensively, 27th overall among point guards. This year, the same system ranks him as the league's best defensive point (by a large margin) and a huge plus as a whole.
Wall's positioning has been great, and he's fighting through screens well. He's also done a fantastic job contesting outside jumpers, using his length and athleticism to bother spot-up shooters in a way that few players can.
Opponents are shooting 30.1 percent on shots beyond 15 feet when Wall is guarding them, over six percent less than their normal percentage from that distance.
Pierce was a stout defender last year, but age catches up to everyone eventually. Heading into the season, it was unclear whether he still had the legs to chase down perimeter players after spending a huge chunk of time at the 4 last year. As it turns out, those 37-year-old legs are just fine. He's helped lock down the perimeter for Washington.
When Nene, Wall and Pierce share the court, the Wizards are surrendering just 87.8 points per 100 possessions. That's the best mark of any three-man lineup in the league that's logged at least 200 minutes.
Washington's greatest strength is its defense, and right now, no one is defending better than Nene, Wall and Pierce.
Rasual Butler's Shooting
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Rasual Butler is averaging 21.6 minutes a game for the Wizards. And if anything, he should be playing even more. Not something that most people saw coming prior to this season.
Butler is shooting 53.4 percent from deep, and he's one of just three wings posting a true shooting percentage over 65 percent (Kyle Korver and Courtney Lee are the other two).
Washington is scoring at crazy rates when he's on the floor, especially when he's paired with Wall. At this point, it's even hard to say that his shooting will eventually fall to earth. The law of averages would suggest that it has to, but he just keeps making them from deep.
In a Dec. 16 matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Butler scored 18 points in the fourth quarter, helping to turn a tightly contested game into a laugher.
He's the Wizards' go-to wing when they need floor spacing, and his teammates (especially Wall) are actively trying to get him looks in tight games.
It's just remarkable that Washington, in desperate need of shooting help early in the season, happened to stumble upon one of the best spot-up threats in the game. Earlier, we went over how the Wizards often lack spacing and three-point volume. Just imagine where they'd be without Butler's flamethrowing from deep.
All statistics accurate as of 12/19/2014 and courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless specifically stated otherwise.
