UFC Fight Night 58: Main Card Staff Picks for Machida vs. Dollaway
It's a marathon, not a sprint.
And we are all to be commended for breaking the tape of the 2014 UFC event season. With 45 events, it was long and, at times, tedious. But in the end, it was also very rewarding.
So at the end of the year, and with the endorphins flowing, let us make our main card picks one more time before the calendar flips. Is UFC Fight Night 58, going down Saturday from Brazil, an outstanding card? Nah. But it's a fine stocking stuffer for the year that was.
Come along, won't you, and make fun of our picks and what not? Riley "Kobra" Kontek, Craig "Cookie" Amos, Sean "Salmon" Smith, James "The Athlete" MacDonald and myself, Scott Harris. We are the team. Let's get it on.
Staff Records
1 of 7
I, for one, cannot wait for the calendar to flip. It hasn't been a banner predictions year for Mr. Harris.
But enough about me. This year's predictions championship could be coming down to the final weekend, and we have a three-horse race. Where did MacDonald come from? Will Kontek squander what was once a very healthy lead? Toward whom will I ultimately hurl my bitterness and aging tomatoes?
UFC Fight Night 58 will tell the tale.
Amos: 146-78-1
Kontek: 145-79-1
MacDonald: 145-79-1
Smith: 137-87-1
Harris: 129-95-1
Daniel Sarafian vs. Antonio Dos Santos Jr.
2 of 7
Kontek
A late addition to the card, Dos Santos isn't getting a good chance to succeed here despite being a good prospect. He will not be able to handle the spark plug that is Daniel Sarafian, whose striking has improved and whose takedowns are strong. He will use said takedowns to ground, pound and tap Dos Santos.
Sarafian, Submission, Rd. 2
Amos
Safarian was absolutely blown out last time he competed, which doesn't give me much confidence picking him here. But I'm still picking him under the assumption that UFC 174 was simply an off night. He should be able to exploit a grappling advantage and earn the win with a submission before the fight goes too long.
Sarafian, Submission, Rd. 1
Smith
At 26 years old, Dos Santos might have more potential than Sarafian, but there will be a lot of pressure on him this weekend. Sarafian has underachieved inside the Octagon, but his UFC experience should be an important factor in this matchup. Expect Sarafian to hand the UFC newcomer a learning experience on Saturday.
Sarafian, Submission, Rd. 1
Harris
Dos Santos makes his UFC debut Saturday night after a successful run in Brazil. And I think the young man will keep it going by outstriking the solid if unspectacular veteran in Sarafian. Sound the upset alarms.
Dos Santos, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Sarafian hasn’t had the best time of it since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, having lost three of his four official UFC bouts. I can’t pretend to have much faith in his ability to retain a spot on the roster, so I’m going to go against the grain here and say that Dos Santos, the UFC newcomer, pulls off the upset. I have absolutely nothing to base this on other than intuition, so take it with a grain of salt.
Dos Santos, Unanimous decision
Erick Silva vs. Mike Rhodes
3 of 7
Kontek
Erick Silva is getting a lifeline here and a fantastic stylistic matchup in Mike Rhodes. All of his losses are against top guys, and Rhodes is not one of those guys. Silva throws hands, gets Rhodes down and finishes him on the mat.
Silva, Submission, Rd. 1
Amos
Mike Rhodes owns a 2013 victory over Alan Jouban, who has looked excellent since joining the UFC. That gives me pause to pick Silva but only for about a second. The Brazilian hasn't ascended the welterweight ranks like people once expected he would, but he remains a solid 170-pounder and should get back in the win column on Saturday.
Silva, Submission, Rd. 1
Smith
Despite an 0-2 start to his UFC career, Rhodes has been matched up with a fringe contender in the 170-pound class. Silva has not been able to meet the high expectations set for him when he entered the world's top MMA organization, but he's still an outstanding welterweight. The Brazilian will take care of business in this mismatch.
Silva, Submission, Rd. 1
Harris
“Biggie” Rhodes will eventually get a win in the UFC Octagon. It will not come Saturday night against Silva. Rhodes has wrestling but not the kind of wrestling that can stave off a submission game like Silva’s. The boxing may be more even, especially at the beginning, but Silva will have the deep gas tank to capitalize in deep waters.
Silva, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Silva has promised much throughout his UFC career, but he just hasn’t quite been able to make the jump to elite level—largely owing to his relatively poor cardio. I still think the Brazilian can be a contender in the welterweight division. I can’t see Rhodes having anything for Silva, so the dreaded third straight UFC loss is in the cards for the American.
Silva, TKO, Rd. 1
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Rashid Magomedov vs. Elias Silverio
4 of 7
Kontek
This is actually a very intriguing fight. Both men are ground fighters, which could turn this into a Rock 'Em, Sock 'Em Robots type of war. Magomedov is superior all around and will hold off the grinder that is Silverio. Believe me, Magomedov is a stud and will continue to show why here.
Magomedov, Unanimous decision
Amos
This is the most difficult one to call in my estimation. Magomedov is the more highly rated up-and-comer, which is why he is the favorite heading into the bout, but Silverio has probably been more impressive since joining the UFC. It's a tough call indeed, but given how tight it could be, why not go with the Brazilian in Brazil?
Silverio, Unanimous decision
Smith
This is an intriguing matchup between two solid prospects who are undefeated inside the Octagon. Silverio should have a bright future ahead, but he's not as well-rounded as Magomedov right now. The Russian should hold his own on the ground and gain an edge on the scorecards with his striking.
Magomedov, Unanimous decision
Harris
Magomedov has a lot of good days ahead of him. The Dagestani has a wider and sharper striking arsenal than the Brazilian, and that will spell the difference.
Magomedov, TKO, Rd. 1
MacDonald
I’m torn here. There’s plenty of potential in both men. Both Silverio and Magomedov excel on the ground, but the latter's superior all-round game should make the difference in this one.
Magomedov, Unanimous decision
Patrick Cummins vs. Antonio Carlos Junior
5 of 7
Kontek
I really hate this matchup for Antonio Carlos Jr. He is a young prospect with a lack of experience but has a chance to be a star in Brazil. He has progressed quickly as a fighter, but Patrick Cummins represents everything Carlos Jr. needs to improve. Cummins continues his march back to relevancy.
Cummins, Unanimous decision
Amos
Carlos Jr. could make trouble for Cummins in this one, but the American's handling of Kyle Kingsbury gives me confidence in sticking with the favorite. He'll smother Carlos Jr. against the fence and put him on his back over and over again, until the final bell rings.
Cummins, Unanimous decision
Smith
Opposite Daniel Cormier, Cummins had a rough introduction to the Octagon. With two straight wins since losing in his debut, though, Cummins has shown he does have potential. A TUF: Brazil 3 winner, Carlos Jr. still has some proving to do. I'll go with the more accomplished light heavyweight in this matchup.
Cummins, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
People are way too fast to write off Carlos, Jr. Not only does the young man make a mean hamburger, but he also knows jiu-jitsu. Like a lot of jiu-jitsu. He’s also big and athletic enough that Cummins won’t be able to push him around like he did with Kyle Kingsbury. That’s right, friend: Sound the alarms.
Carlos Jr., Submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald
Cummins is much better than his debut showing against Daniel Cormier would suggest, and I can see him reinforcing that fact with another solid win here. The American should be able to control Carlos Jr. with his superior wrestling and earn a comfortable decision.
Cummins, Unanimous decision
Renan Barao vs. Mitch Gagnon
6 of 7
Kontek
I hate to label this a "gimme" fight, but it's really what it feels like. I think Mitch Gagnon is a solid talent and a top-15 fighter, but Renan Barao has been unstoppable outside that upset loss to T.J. Dillashaw. Barao should handle this fairly easily.
Barao, TKO, Rd. 1
Amos
Gagnon has quietly reeled off four straight wins and has looked good doing it. He isn't ready to make the leap from Roman Salazar to Renan Barao, though. The former bantamweight champion will get back in the win column on Saturday with a finish.
Barao, Submission, Rd. 2
Smith
While meeting Barao is a huge opportunity for Gagnon, it is also a good way to have his winning streak ended. The former bantamweight titleholder is simply the better fighter in all areas. He'll beat Gagnon up while standing before finishing the Canadian on the ground.
Barao, Submission, Rd. 2
Harris
Like the evening’s co-main event, this fight pits a streaking journeyman against a superstar looking to get right again. I think the outcome will be the same in both cases, here with Barao attacking methodically with leg kicks before unleashing some sort of devilish muay thai in the second.
Barao, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
It’ll be interesting to see how Barao rebounds after a trying few months. Gagnon is good enough to give us an indication of where the Brazilian’s game is at, but he’s ultimately outmatched here.
Barao, TKO, Rd. 3
Lyoto Machida vs. CB Dollaway
7 of 7
Kontek
Lyoto Machida is one of the best. CB Dollaway, in my opinion, is a tad overrated despite some solid wins. Machida's takedown defense is stout, and his striking is 10 levels above that of Dollaway. I don't expect Machida to take too much time before downing him with extreme prejudice.
Machida, KO, Rd. 1
Amos
"Good" works well as a description for the type of fighter Dollaway is. "Good" doesn't do Machida justice. Throw out styles, momentum, location and any other factor along those lines. This matchup is simply one where a superior fighter is going to beat an inferior one.
Machida, TKO, Rd 3
Smith
It didn't work out so well against Chris Weidman, but Machida's style is usually effective against wrestlers like Dollaway. “The Doberman” is a very solid wrestler, but he's obviously not on the same level as the middleweight champion. Dollaway will have trouble working inside against Machida and will eventually pay for having to stand with the Brazilian.
Machida, TKO, Rd. 1
Harris
Not to pile on, but this feels like the first round of a karate movie tournament montage, where the guy who eventually makes the finals bests some nameless, vaguely thuggish-looking foe to the dulcet tones of Kenny Loggins. Maybe Dollaway can elongate this by getting Machida down, but it’s not something I’m going to bet on. That said, Machida should (and better) finish Dollaway if he wants this to be a stepping stone to anything.
Machida, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
This could very well be a mismatch. Dollaway may have enjoyed something of a career resurgence lately, but I can’t conceive of him besting Machida. While the The Ultimate Fighter veteran is a good wrestler, I’m not convinced he’s good enough to consistently take the Brazilian to the floor.
Machida, Unanimous decision
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