Cotto vs. Canelo to Push Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Fight?

In the world of boxing there are only a few weekends scattered throughout the year when casual fans are intrigued by a big fight. But on May 2, 2015, fight fans might get all those monumental bouts in one night.

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez has already agreed to terms to square off with Miguel Cotto on that first weekend of May. However, it is Floyd Mayweather who has consistently fought in September and on Cinco de Mayo weekend these past couple of years.

This begs the question: If Mayweather is to fight on the same night as Alvarez (on different networks), does he need to fight Manny Pacquiao in order to defeat Canelo in the war for pay-per-view buys?

The current pound-for-pound champ is the king of pay-per-view buys, but the numbers generated in his last two fights have fallen short of expectations. In his first fight with Marcos Maidana the event did roughly 900,000 buys, and in the rematch approximately 925,000 paid to see the fight. These figures are south of the regular one million buys or more that "Money" is accustomed to.

The 37-year-old’s biggest fight came against the man he is now competing with outside the ring, Alvarez. The bout between those two reeled in approximately 2.2 million buys, and was the highest grossing fight in history. A big part of those numbers can be attributed to Canelo’s name recognition and extensive fanbase in Mexico.

The 24-year-old rising star has continued to build his brand by frequently fighting and winning on pay-per-view. In his most recent bout he edged out a close victory against the slick Cuban southpaw, Erislandy Lara. And prior to that fight, he dismantled fellow countryman Alfredo Angulo. Those fights generated 300,000 and 350,000 buys respectively.

Now, we turn to Cotto, another one of the most recognizable names in the sport. The 34-year-old is no stranger to pay-per-view fights, as he has fought some of the biggest names on that platform. His fight with Pacquiao generated roughly 1.25 million buys, and his fight with Money drew 1.5 million buys—one of Mayweather’s top-grossing fights.

Most recently, Cotto’s highly anticipated fight with Sergio Martinez took in about 300,000 pay-per-view buys, which was considered short of expectations.

Cotto vs. Alvarez is one of the biggest fights that can be made in the sport, maybe only behind Mayweather vs. Pacquiao. So, if Mayweather is to fight someone besides Pacquiao in May, can he really do bigger numbers than that fight by himself? Mayweather seems to think so, as he told Fight Hype last month.

"

If they feel like they can compete, well then let's see. ... When you're talking boxing, you're talking Mayweather, man. We need to take Canelo's last fight and look at his pay-per-view numbers and take Cotto's last fight and look at his pay-per-view numbers, put 'em together and see who done better numbers. And see what they charge for the fight also.

"

After Alvarez signed a new multimillion dollar contract to fight on HBO, he was set on fighting on December 6 against Joshua Clottey. But an ankle injury put a halt to that bout, so the young boxing star was content to rest up until spring of 2015.

Golden Boy Promoter Oscar De La Hoya told Fight Corner News last month that Canelo was adamant to fight on the May 2 weekend and would fight on that date regardless of what day Mayweather decided to fight: “Regardless. Try talking a 24-year-old, who is already an icon in Mexico, to move from Cinco de Mayo—it’s impossible. I am more than confident that Canelo is going to go on that weekend.”

The weekend holds a lot of significance for Alvarez because of the immense Mexican fanbase which enjoys watching fights on that holiday.

According to Raimundo Ortiz of Sports World News, Alvarez had this to say about fighting on May 2: "Those are the Mexican holidays, and they belong to the Mexican fighters. Everybody knows those are the Mexican holidays and the traditional dates for the Mexican fighters."

But Mayweather is of the belief that Cinco de Mayo isn’t just for Mexican fights, as he told Chris Williams of Boxing News 24, “When I hear Cinco de Mayo is just for the Mexicans, the last time I checked any holiday is for anyone.”

Mayweather does bring up a good point—he has shown that he can be highly successful on the first weekend of May without having a Mexican fighter in the other corner. But he does have to take into account the support Canelo draws from the Mexican fans, which has proved to be substantial in previous fights.

Another component that should be noted, is that the Cotto-Alvarez matchup features the heated Puerto Rican vs. Mexican boxing rivalry, which is one of the best in the sport.

With all of those factors in play for that major event, it makes it increasingly difficult for Mayweather. If he were to settle for a fight with Amir Khan, Keith Thurman or any other adequate name in the division—but not stellar—would he be able to compete on pay-per-view?

It’s hard to say, but if the declining numbers are indicative of anything it's that fans are getting fed up with dull, predictable matchups.

If Mayweather is concerned about pay-per-view sales, it would be in his best interest to fight Pacquiao, which may be the only fight capable of selling as well as Cotto-Alvarez, even though Mayweather is the top draw in the sport.

The 37-year-old Las Vegas native hates to lose; though he may not lose inside the ring, there’s a decent chance he could lose the pay-per-view battle—and that could be what finally pushes the Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight.

De La Hoya said the only way that Canelo would move off that date is if the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight were to transpire.

That should provide more of an incentive for Money to make this massive fight. If the Pacquiao fight isn’t made on that date, he will have an uphill battle on his hands to promote a fight with someone who will be inferior in terms of skills and name recognition.

The Filipino icon has also recently suffered a lull in the pay-per-view numbers, as he brought in roughly 300,000 buys against the little known and far outclassed Chris Algieri. The figure was one of the worst since early in Pacquiao's pay-per-view career. 

Despite the drop in pay-per-view buys, Pacquiao looked sharp, as he dropped the New York native six times in their November bout. The performance got fans talking about the matchup that still hasn't come to fruition between the sport's two biggest draws.

Traction has once again picked up on this megafight between the two welterweight champions, as they have exchanged repeated barbs at each other over social media.

But despite the heated rhetoric, a lot of the finer details would still have to be worked out. The venue would more than likely be the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, but which network would host the major event could get tricky.

Mayweather has two fights left on his six-fight contract with Showtime, while Pacquiao has been primarily an HBO fighter. The only time "Pac-Man" has fought on Showtime was in 2011 against Shane Mosley.

So if negations were to maturate, the most likely scenario would be for Pacquiao to go to Showtime for the fight. The other alternative could be a scenario like the one used for the Mike Tyson-Lennox Lewis fight, where HBO and Showtime make a collective effort to host the bout. But the latter would only be possible if Canelo moved off that date, since he is now under the HBO banner.

The increasing pressure from another big boxing star fighting on the same date could incline the flamboyant Mayweather into taking the biggest fight out there, and there is no one bigger than Pacquiao.

Follow Evan @Emoneyball22