What's Behind Kevon Looney's UCLA Breakout as a Top-10 NBA Draft Prospect
UCLA freshman big man Kevon Looney has made it tough to look away through the first month of the season.
And he's become a major talking point in the 2015 NBA draft conversation.
It's not just the numbers—Looney immediately aces the eye test based on his physical approach and appearance.
Between the 7'3" wingspan, physical athleticism and inside-out skill set for a big, he's loaded with mismatch potential on paper. And it's been convincing, given the production those attributes and offensive versatility have translated to early on.
Through 11 games, Looney is averaging 13.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, two assists and 1.6 blocks.
He's been a double-double machine and a mad man under the boards. Looney is constantly putting pressure on the glass, particularly at the offensive end, where he's pulling down 4.7 rebounds a game.
He grabbed seven offensive boards last Saturday against Gonzaga's giant front line consisting of 7'1", 288-pound Przemek Karnowski, 6'10" Domantas Sabonis and 6'10" Kyle Wiltjer.
Looney has already managed to convert a whopping 21 putbacks (two per game), or points scored within four seconds of grabbing an offensive rebound, per Hoop-Math.com.
Of course, his size and length project favorably, but Looney has a terrific nose for the ball, along with the motor and willingness to go after it. And this is something he ultimately established early in his high school career.
Per Rivals.com's Eric Bossi from 2012:
Looney recently spoke to Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News regarding his consistent presence on the glass:
"It’s something you can control. I know I can rebound, That’s something I feel I can do with anybody. When the opportunity comes to have a big game offensively, I know I’ll be able to do that. But the one thing I know I can do game to game is rebound."
Looney's rebounding tools and instincts play a bit to the certainty he offers as a prospect. It's an area of the game that tends to translate for those built to hold their own inside.
Per ESPN.com stat man Ryan Feldman:
"Among big men in the last five NBA Drafts [not including 2014], the top three in rebound percentage in their final college season have an NBA career rebound percentage better than 15 percent – Kenneth Faried, DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson.
"
The five worst players are nowhere near a 15 percent rebound percentage. Four of those five players have never even started a game in the NBA.
Looney currently sports a solid 18.1 percent rebounding percentage, and assuming he's able to add some bulk to that 220-pound frame, you'd like to think this is a strength that should carry over to the pros.
Offensively, Looney is a bit raw in terms of working one-on-one. The Bruins don't exactly run their offense through him in the post given his light 20.6 percent usage rate.
But despite the lack of touches, he's still scoring at an impressive rate for a guy who's fourth on the team in shot attempts per game.
He's shooting it 48.5 percent from the floor, and that's with 46.7 percent of his attempts coming on two-point jumpers or threes, per Hoop-Math.com.
Looney has a high comfort level on the perimeter, where he's got a confident jumper and capable handle for a big man.
Against Gonzaga, he finished with 14 points, with four of his six buckets coming from outside. Looney drilled a three-pointer and three other jumpers—one facing up, another off a catch-and-shoot and the last off a pull-back he created himself off the dribble.
He's got a natural stroke, and though it's a stretch to think he might emerge as a long-range shooter, his mid-range mechanics look textbook. You get the impression he'll evolve into an everyday option off pick-and-pops and drive-and-kicks.
Around the rim, Looney isn't the most explosive player in the world, and his post moves aren't quite clean yet. But he's got giant hands and a nice feel for the basket over his shoulder. And he's drawn a ton of fouls—he averages 7.3 free-throw attempts per game—for a guy who's rarely featured in the offense.
Between his size and length, Looney just takes up a ton of space inside, while his ability to consistently position himself in the right place at the right time leaves defenders no choice but to hack.
At the end of the day, Looney excels in areas of the game you just can't teach—physical tools, energy, rebounding instincts—while showing enormous promise in places where there's plenty of room for growth, like shooting and post scoring.
He's essentially already established both a high ceiling and high basement floor, which is really just another way of saying Looney offers little risk and big potential reward.
In just a month of college hoops, Looney has undoubtedly entered the top-10 conversation for the 2015 draft. And regardless of what numbers he puts up the rest of the way, at 18 years old, the safety and upside he's flashed early on are going to stay with him until June.
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