Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 16 Preview for Houston
With the Houston Texans realistically out of the playoff race and their top three quarterbacks out of action with injuries, the two remaining games could end up feeling more like the fourth preseason game than a December game during what you hope is a stretch run.
At least for this week's game, the return of former head coach Gary Kubiak could add some spice and intrigue, but the Week 17 matchup against Jacksonville might feature a ton of tickets up for grabs on the re-sale or secondary websites.
The Ravens defense has played well this season as they almost always do, but the addition of Kubiak to the coaching staff has resulted in an increase from 25th and 29th, respectively, in points scored and yards gained last year to eighth and 10th in those two categories this season.
This game will be a difficult must-win situation to keep Houston's faint playoff hopes alive.
While the odds are longer than the line at Killen's BBQ in Pearland—a Houston suburb for those not from here—technically and mathematically they're not dead yet in the chase for the sixth and final spot in the playoffs.
The scenario that would need to unfold for the Texans to sneak in is improbable but very straightforward and easy to understand.
They need to win both of their remaining two games, for the Ravens to lose both of their games and for the Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills to lose one game each.
If all of that happens, then the Texans would win the tiebreaker for the sixth seed based on their record against the conference, which would be 8-4. The Bills still have a game left with the New England Patriots, and the Chiefs and Chargers play each other in Week 17, so getting the help needed is possible if they win out.
Keep hope alive...at least until approximately 3:05 on Sunday afternoon.
Houston Texans Week 15 Recap
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This was another game against the Indianapolis Colts where the players and many of the fans probably felt the Texans should have won. Just like the first meeting, the Texans had the ball late in the fourth quarter trailing by one possession but turned the ball over and came up short.
The loss was the Texans' unlucky 13th in a row at Indianapolis.
If I had predicted before the game that the Texans defense would hold Andrew Luck to 50 percent passing and less than 200 yards and score a defensive touchdown off a turnover from the former No. 1 overall pick, then most people would have probably assumed a Houston victory.
Well, Luck completed 18 of 36 pass attempts for 187 yards with a pick-six thrown to safety Kendrick Lewis, but the Texans offense was more frustrating to watch than seeing a person with a full basket pull into an express checkout lane. The offense failed to hold up its end of the deal.
The offense was so completely inept that it failed to record a touchdown and didn't score at all until late into the third quarter.
In fact, the first nine possessions ended as follows: punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, turnover on downs, punt and punt. Not sure even the 1985 Bears defense could overcome that offensive performance.
After Ryan Fitzpatrick left the game early in the second quarter—not that they were lighting the world on fire before—the Texans had no prayer of gaining or developing any rhythm or consistency on offense.
I could go over all the offensive numbers, but they're skewed due to the injury at quarterback. With Fitzpatrick out, the Colts started blitzing more, brought up defensive backs to stop the run and left their corners in more one-on-one situations without the fear of getting beaten over the top.
Tom Savage burned them twice for completions of 35 and 30 yards, respectively, to DeAndre Hopkins and DeVier Posey, but not surprisingly he played like a rookie for most of the game.
Speaking of Posey, the flag he drew for holding in the third quarter was probably the biggest play of the game in terms of swinging the outcome one way or another. The Colts player definitely embellished some, but there's no doubt that the call was correct.
You can see Posey grab, pull and turn the body of the Colts player; that will always be a hold if the refs see it happen.
"Broadcast view couldn't tell clearly, but pretty clear hold on Posey. Extra flopping though for good measur... https://t.co/eLCUfpmFCV
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 17, 2014"
Like what many saw from him in college, Savage's reads were slow. He stared down receivers, and his decisions with the ball were questionable too often. I'm not writing him off for the future, but he just wasn't ready for action in that game.
Luckily, the defense played maybe its best game of the season to keep the game close and give the team a chance to win late. Of course, when we talk about excellent play on the defensive side, that discussion has to start with J.J. Watt.
The MVP candidate had six tackles, two sacks, two tackles for loss, one pass defensed and two hits on the quarterback; as always he was incredible.
He wasn't the only defensive player to perform well against Indianapolis, as Mike Mohamed, John Simon, Jerrell Powe and Kareem Jackson all made plays at different times.
First, the land shark sniffed out a screen pass and made a tackle for a loss.
"Jerrell Powe is the only one that sees the screen. Land shark D. #Texans https://t.co/ahiQHwLAOx
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 17, 2014"
Simon was disruptive all game long.
"Simon shocking the TE and making the play. #Texans https://t.co/4qymodEJVY
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 17, 2014"
Jackson helped keep the explosive T.Y. Hilton in check and under 100 yards.
"Luck looking for Hilton. Kareem all over him in the slot step for step. #Texans https://t.co/3kk7DyrehA
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 17, 2014"
It was a great effort and performance from the entire defense—a complete game from that group.
Thanks to @PatDStat for all the great Vine breakdowns, make sure to give him a follow!
News and Notes
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Texans Won't Announce Their Starting Quarterback Until Sunday
"Bill O'Brien said he won't name #Texans' QB until close to game time Sunday.
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 17, 2014 "
"#Texans coach Bill O'Brien says he's going to keep the starting quarterback's name "close to the vest." Not going to announce it this week.
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 17, 2014"
I don't think the Ravens will be biting their nails or staying up all night worrying about which quarterback it will be, but for whatever very small advantage it will give the Texans, it makes sense for Bill O'Brien to keep it a secret for as long as he can.
My assumption is O'Brien will ultimately choose to start Case Keenum. Neither quarterback gives the team a good chance to win the game against Baltimore, but at least Keenum has experience in this offense from his time with the team during training camp and the preseason.
Ravens Pro-Bowler Terrell Suggs Impressed by Performance of J.J. Watt
"Terrell Suggs is going on and on and on about how great J.J. Watt is. A weekly conference call tradition. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 17, 2014"
How could you not be impressed by what Watt has done over the last three seasons and especially this year? Still, it's pretty cool to have a player with the status of Suggs compliment your play in that way.
From Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, Suggs said Watt's numbers are so impressive that they seem like a misprint:
"It’s amazing. If you look at the guy’s numbers, it’s like there’s no way in the world this is possible. I be thinking I be reading a misprint. … It’s just ridiculous. Like, come on. Come on. Really? For a defensive guy (to have) numbers like that, I’ve never seen a guy with so many stats.
"
Watt currently ranks third in sacks (16.5), first in tackles for loss (22), first among defensive linemen in passes defensed (10), seventh in fumbles forced and tied for first in fumbles recovered (5)—all other players inside the top 10 in that last category are on the offensive side of the ball.
He's a lock to win the Defensive Player of the Year award for the second time in three years.
Injury Report
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| Ryan Fitzpatrick | Leg | IR |
| Tom Savage | Knee | Out |
| Jeff Tarpinian | Knee | Questionable |
| Garrett Graham | Ankle | Out |
| Akeem Dent | Neck | Questionable |
| Johnathan Joseph | Ankle | Questionable |
| Whitney Mercilus | Back | Questionable |
| Xavier Su'a-Filo | Back | Questionable |
| Kareem Jackson | Knee | Questionable |
| Tyson Clabo | Foot | Questionable |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Ankle | Questionable |
| Brian Cushing | Ankle | Questionable |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Probable |
| Andre Johnson | Concussion | Probable |
"Andre Johnson passed concussion protocol
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 18, 2014 "
"Johnson said he will play vs Ravens
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 18, 2014"
Source: Pro Football Reference
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X-Factor and Matchup to Watch
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Stopping Justin Forsett
Every Texans fan should know from the eight seasons that current Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak spent with the team as head coach that his passing game depends on a solid running game. Joe Flacco has had a career-best season, but slowing him down starts with stopping the rushing attack.
The Ravens run game is led by veteran back Justin Forsett, who is also having a career-best season. He had experience in the Kubiak offense before this season after spending the 2012 season with the Texans. He has made the most of a new opportunity.
Forsett would have probably received a decent chunk of carries as Baltimore's third-string back, but after issues dropped Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce down the depth chart, he's proved once again that he's a perfect fit for Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme.
Forsett's per-carry average of 5.4 this season is better than his career average of 4.9, but he actually averaged 5.9 yards on 63 attempts with Houston in 2012. The difference for the career backup has simply been the workload.
Over his previous five seasons, Forsett averaged 69 attempts, but he has 208 this year through 14 games. Barring injury, he will more than double the attempts of his previous career high.
The Texans rush defense has improved since signing veteran nose tackle Ryan Pickett. Houston currently ranks ninth in yards per carry allowed while holding opponents under four yards per attempt.
Stopping this attack will rely on the play of the outside linebackers. The scheme likes to get defenders running from side to side, while the back looks for a hole and cuts up the field.
If the outside linebackers can set a hard edge to stop that movement, contain the back and force the action inside to the heart of the defense, then the Texans can stop the run. However, if the Ravens can block down to pin defenders and allow Forsett to get to the edge, they'll get dominated.
If they can't stop the play-action passes to deep threats Steve Smith and Torrey Smith, it could lead to explosive plays. We've all seen Texans safeties struggle with their positioning and getting caught looking into the backfield, so a successful running game could put them in a bad spot.
If the safeties creep up to stop the run, the Ravens receivers could get past them in a hurry.
X-Factor of the Week: The Offensive Line
Here's a little love for the big boys who play in the trenches!
Of course, it's obvious to say that an offense needs good blocking up front to be successful, but the performance of the offensive line will be even more important on Sunday than it had been earlier in the season.
On one hand, a great quarterback like Peyton Manning can make an average offensive line look great because of how quickly he can make reads and get rid of the ball. On the other hand, a quarterback who holds onto the ball because he struggles to make his reads can make a good offensive line look bad.
The latter could be an issue this week. While Bill O'Brien hasn't officially announced the starting quarterback yet, the majority assumption is that Case Keenum will get the nod.
Keenum did some things well during his first stint with the team, but holding onto the ball too long was one of the many areas where he struggled as a first-time starter. I didn't notice much improvement during the preseason, so I doubt he's made any additional steps while buried on the St. Louis Rams practice squad.
The difference between a quarterback who makes his reads quickly and one who does not was made pretty clear when the team went from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Ryan Mallett earlier in the season.
All the protection issues from before magically disappeared with a decisive quarterback who knew where to go with the ball. Fitzpatrick was sacked four times or more in three of their four games leading up to the game against Cleveland, but Mallett wasn't sacked once by the Browns.
That's not a coincidence.
"Ryan Mallett's average time per pass attempt was 2.06 seconds vs CLE. Off the charts fast, lowest in the league this week.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 18, 2014"
The offensive line probably isn't as good as it looked in pass protection against Cleveland or as bad as it looked before; the quality of the protection depends on everyone.
It's a marriage between everyone on the offense. Not only do you need your line to block well and your quarterback to make quick decisions, but a team also needs the receivers to get open quickly and tight ends and running backs to execute their roles in the blocking game.
Keenum has to hold up his end of the deal this week. The starting Pro Bowl offensive line from either conference would struggle if the quarterback behind it held onto the ball too long.
Whether Keenum is capable of speeding up his clock remains to be seen, but either the way the offensive line will need to have one of its best games of the season for the Texans to have success in the passing game.
Prediction
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The best player on the field this Sunday will be J.J. Watt, but of course you could say that about nearly every Texans' game, and they've still lost seven times. Other than that defensive end position, it's hard to find other areas where the Texans will have an advantage.
Baltimore is playing much better—and is healthier—on offense. The defense is at worst even with Houston's and in some statistical areas—yards allowed—has performed much better.
I don't expect the Texans to quit or roll over for the Ravens, but there's only so much we can expect from a team playing its fourth quarterback of the season. Why go on and on about stats and trends when that fact is really all we need to come to a logical prediction?
The Texans are going to lose on Sunday, which will officially end any chance they have at making the playoffs.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 10
Follow me on Twitter for more analysis on the Texans and live tweets during games: @sackedbybmac
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