Fantasy Football Week 16 Predictions

It often isn't as easy to stack options in yearly leagues as it is in daily fantasy, but it becomes a lot more possible when the competition for waiver-wire options is reduced to the championship-week opponents. That is what we have in Week 16, the Super Bowl matchup in most leagues.

Daily fantasy players like to stack options in the week's high-scoring games. Guys like Harry Douglas, Kenny Stills and Joseph Randle are more readily available to you off waivers, as much as they are bargains in weekly salary-cap formats. These are the intriguing fringe guys in the week's most wide-open contests.

This is Bleacher Report's Week 16 Predictions, where we project the MVPs, breakouts, busts, bounce-back players, top matchup plays by position and the waiver-wire gems. It is your definitive guide to bolstering your fantasy lineup one last time en route to being your league's sole survivor.

MVP

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Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Projected stat line: 425 passing yards, four touchdowns

This hasn't been an MVP-like season by Brees' standards for his fantasy owners, but this is where that can change. Brees had a five-touchdown game just three weeks ago, and he was surgical in a blowout of the Chicago Bears on Monday night.

Now, the Falcons come to town, with an offense and a quarterback going a lot better than the Chicago Bears and the now-benched Jay Cutler. The best part of this pick is not the brilliance of Brees and his targets, but the fact both defenses are shaky against the pass—the Falcons are dead last and the Saints are sixth-worst—and the quarterbacks have a wide array of viable targets.

And, of course, this game is for all the marbles in the wretched NFC South division title hunt. Expect both teams—read: offenses/quarterbacks—to let it all hang out.

The last time these two teams locked heads, Brees managed only one touchdown pass in a 37-34 game. He will trump that in the first quarter.

This could be a game that fantasy looks back upon and remembers for years. It will be a wild, wild one. Load up on both sides, particularly with the Saints' downfield weapons like Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Kenny Stills and perhaps even Nick Toon, who has had all 13 receptions of his season in the past four weeks.

Honorable Mention

• RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)
• TE Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• TE Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (at New York Jets)
• QB Aaron Rodgers/RB Eddie Lacy/WR Jordy Nelson/WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• QB Matt Ryan/WR Julio Jones/WR Roddy White/WR Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
• RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
• RB Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Biggest Breakout Star

Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Projected stat line: 65 yards rushing and one touchdown

This pick in no way suggests we believe DeMarco Murray (hand) will not play Sunday against the Colts. After writing otherwise in Tuesday's Insider Notebook, we have become convinced Murray—who practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, according to ESPN.com's Todd Archer—will indeed be active now.

This is a vote of confidence for the owners who plucked Randle, fantasy's most-added player this week at CBSSports.com, off waivers. Even an active Murray will afford Randle fantasy scoring opportunities.

The Cowboys, the NFL's third-best rushing offense, will hammer the ball at the Colts defensive front that is seventh worst in fantasy against running backs. This season, the Cowboys have planned to do that against anyone, strength of opponent be damned. Doing it against the Colts and playing keep-away from quarterback Andrew Luck just makes too much sense.

Murray, even if he can avoid carrying the ball in his surgically repaired left hand, will need Randle to do some of the dirty work between the tackles and between the 20s throughout the game. Fire up Randle as a starter in standard leagues as a low-end No. 2 running back and flex option. He should be a bargain, too, in daily leagues, but his lack of receiving prowess might not make him as intriguing of a buy in those PPR-based scoring systems.

Murray and third-stringer Lance Dunbar will get the passing-down snaps and fantasy points. We still believe in that great Cowboys offensive line to create a lot of run-down situations, though.

Honorable Mention

• RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)
• RB Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)
• RB Terrance West, Cleveland Browns (at Carolina Panthers)
• WR Nick Toon, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• QB Shaun Hill/WR Tavon Austin/WR Stedman Bailey, St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)
• RB Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• RB Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Biggest Bust

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Arian Foster, Houston Texans (vs. Baltimore Ravens) 

Projected stat line: 45 yards rushing, two catches for 20 yards and no touchdowns

As I wrote in B/R's Week 16 Big Board, this shapes up to be a modest week, if not a bad one, for your elite running backs. The matchups just don't look favorable, save for the scorching Le'Veon Bell against the Kansas City Chiefs or Eddie Lacy at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The matchup looks the worst for the Texans' Arian Foster, particularly because he is less than 100 percent as usual. The Ravens have allowed the fewest points to fantasy running backs this season, giving up just six total touchdowns to the position. Only the Chiefs have allowed fewer.

Foster did not practice Wednesday, per the official NFL injury report (NFLMedia.com, credentials required) to rest his sore hip. He will be active again, but he will have a tough opponent and plenty of reasons to check out against the Ravens' rugged, third-ranked run defense.

Oh, and the Texans are dealing with having lost quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick (broken leg), Ryan Mallett (shoulder) and Tom Savage (knee). They are down to starting Case Keenum off the street, Thad Lewis or Ricky Stanzi. Forget it. The Ravens are going to make the Texans too one-dimensional.

Dishonorable Mention

• QB Russell Wilson/RB Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona Cardinals)
• RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at New York Jets)
• RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
• WR Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• WR Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)
• WR DeAndre Hopkins/WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (vs. Baltimore Raven)
• WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns (at Carolina Panthers)
• RB Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (vs. Buffalo Bills)
• RB Branden Oliver/RB Donald Brown/RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (at San Francisco 49ers)
• WR Eric Decker/WR Percy Harvin, New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)

Biggest Bounce-Back Player

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Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Projected stat line: 375 yards passing, four touchdowns and 25 yards rushing

Peyton Manning could not bounce back from the Buffalo Bills hangover last week, but this is not a spiral Rodgers should be stuck in. This one could become a biblical thrashing at the hand of the future Hall of Fame quarterback at Tampa Bay.

Those who made it through Rodgers' bust of a Week 15 and are still playing for fantasy championships are going to have opponents lamenting their misfortune in having to face him for all the marbles. The Bucs have given up the sixth-most touchdown passes to fantasy quarterbacks and the fifth-most TD passes to wide receivers.

The Bucs and Rodgers' fantasy opponents should be afraid—very, very afraid. Rodgers told Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he is seeking retribution for his poor play this past Sunday:

"

Sunday was a rough one. I didn't play well. That's not news to anybody. Now, it's frustrating because obviously I hold myself to a higher standard. I know I can play better. I should've played better. They made plays. We missed some throws. We missed some catches. And we missed some opportunities. … And I didn't play well enough to give us a better chance to win.

"

That was only the tip of Rodgers' verbal determination:

"

We all look squarely in the mirror and we're very self-critical, myself as much as anybody. It's a frustrating film to watch but we're creatures of habit and we sat here many times over the last 11 weeks and winning nine of those games and felt great about those performances. You have to approach it the same way. You can't just lie and be washed over with the incredible positive comments about the way you're playing, and then not be comfortable with the negative ones. And on the flip side of that, you have to be able to move on. You can't be sitting and thinking about how great you did that week because none of that carries over to the next week.

You have to create your own momentum. You have to go out on Sunday and make the plays, regardless of if you threw six touchdowns the previous week or none. We do a good job of moving forward. …

This team will be judged by how we respond to this adversity. I think we're going to respond the right way because of the leadership we have from the top down.

"

For those of you facing any of the Packers' fantasy options this week, better luck next year. You are going to suffer Sunday. 

Honorable Mention

• WR Jordy Nelson/WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)
• QB Peyton Manning/TE Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
• QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)
• QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• WR Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)
• RB Terrance West/RB Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (at Carolina Panthers)
• WR DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• WR Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (at Oakland Raiders)
• WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos)

Top QB Matchup Plays

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Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy quarterbacks, per FFToday.com:

1. Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
3. Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
4. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
6. Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
7. New York Giants (at St. Louis Rams)
8. New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)

Projected stat line: 350 yards passing and three touchdowns

You might not have stayed up to watch that Monday Night Football debacle in Chicago earlier this week, but if you did, you are with us in loading up on Stafford and the Lions. The Bears couldn't stop Drew Brees, who was ripping through their defense as if he was practicing seven-on-sevens.

Stafford doesn't have that same kind of accuracy or aggressive play-calling, but Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and perhaps even Reggie Bush are in for productive days in this matchup. The Bears are not only the worst against quarterbacks and fantasy tight ends but are also in the bottom 10 against wideouts. 

This lines up to be a horrific blowout that will send Bears head coach Marc Trestman to the street, perhaps along with benched quarterback Jay Cutler and journeyman backup-turned-starter Jimmy Clausen.

Stafford threw for a season-high 390 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams hooked up. Those numbers might be the lower end of expectations for this one.

Honorable Mention

• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
• Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
• Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)
• Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)
• Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Top RB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy running backs, per FFToday.com:

1. Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
2. Oakland Raiders (vs. Buffalo Bills)
3. Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
4. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)
7. Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)
8. New York Giants (at St. Louis Rams)

RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)

Projected stat line: 130 yards rushing, four catches for 45 yards and three touchdowns

This is going to be the play of the week for daily fantasy owners. Mason had a huge game in Week 13 at home against the Oakland Raiders that announced his stardom for fantasy owners. You will get an even bigger week here.

The Giants have the third-worst run defense in football, and the Rams are a run-first, run-second and run-always offense. The Giants are also in the bottom five against running backs in terms of receiving yards, so expect Mason to make plays out of the backfield as well as from it.

What we like most about Mason's ability to erupt here is the rookie has held up against arguably the toughest schedule a running back can face since taking over as the Rams' feature back in Week 6. He has faced a top-eight run defense in seven of those 10 games…remarkable.

We will get a great look at how important Mason will be to fantasy hopes in 2015 here. He might even earn late Round 1 value with this performance.

Honorable Mention

• Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
• C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
• Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons) 
• Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills (at Oakland Raiders)
• Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)
• Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy wide receivers, per FFToday.com: 

1. Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
2. Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)
3. Houston Texans (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
4. Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
5. Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Green Bay Packers)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
8. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Projected stat line: Six catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns

You could go with any of Drew Brees' receivers in this matchup against a Falcons secondary that is dead last in the NFL. You saw what Brees did to the 31st-ranked Bears secondary Monday night, and that game was on the road.

Brees at home in a climate-controlled dome in a perfect matchup is just too brilliant to load up on in daily fantasy leagues. Stills might still be a bargain, too.

Jimmy Graham will be a star here also, while Marques Colston will get his five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. But Stills is the play of the week among the fringe fantasy receivers. We love how all this lines up so much that we would even choose Nick Toon as a deep sleeper.

Honorable Mention

• Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)
• Julio Jones/Roddy White/Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)
• Jeremy Maclin/Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
• DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• Randall Cobb/Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Torrey Smith/Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)

Top TE Matchup Plays

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Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy tight ends, per FFToday.com:

1. Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
3. New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)
4. Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
5. Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)
6. Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)
7. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)

Projected stat line: Four catches for 45 yards and a touchdown

You could have flipped a coin on Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener as the more productive fantasy tight end all season, but this matchup against the Cowboys figures to be one where both perform like fantasy starting options in crunch time. Allen might not be the PPR play Fleener is, but he is the Cris Carter of Colts tight ends: All he does is catch touchdowns.

You have to figure there will be touchdowns to go around in a Texas shootout in Big D. OddsShark has this matchup as the second-highest total on the board, right behind the Atlanta Falcons at the New Orleans Saints.

This game might not have as many implications as that direct NFC South duel, but the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff berth still, and the Colts remain in the hunt for a first-round bye. There is reason to expect a wild game and big numbers, which plays right into Allen's fantasy owners' hands. He will get his somewhat-regular one touchdown grab in this one. 

Honorable Mention

• Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
• Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)
• Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
• Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
• Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

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Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy defense/special teams, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)
2. St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)
3. Washington Redskins (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Green Bay Packers)
5. Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
6. New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)
7. Indianapolis Colts (at Dallas Cowboys)
8. Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)

Buffalo Bills (at Oakland Raiders)

Projected stat line: Four sacks, three turnovers and a touchdown

If you don't love the Bills defense this week, you haven't been watching the NFL or paying attention to fantasy in the past two weeks.

The Bills have shut down Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back-to-back weeks. A game against rookie Derek Carr should wind up being an annihilation. 

The Bills match up well against the Raiders, who have limited the hits on Carr for the most part this season. The Raiders will fold under the Bills pass rush, though. This defense is tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the most sacks in the league, and the Bills' come in far less obvious passing situations—since the Bills just don't have the offensive pace and firepower the Eagles have.

Expect a lot of obvious passing situations and some pinned-back Bills ears getting after the rookie quarterback. It should lead to turnovers and scores, even if Carr is able to get the ball out before the sack.

Honorable Mention

• Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)
• New England Patriots (at New York Jets) 
• Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)
• Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Redskins)
• Carolina Panthers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• St. Louis Rams (vs. New York Giants)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

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Every week in this slide, we look at the top 10 most added players in CBSSports.com leagues and then dig even deeper to highlight three of the best sleeper players at each position who are owned by less than 60 percent of fantasy teams.

1. RB Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys—We would start him even if DeMarco Murray (hand surgery) is active Sunday. Murray will be, but Randle will still get plenty of touches in a run-heavy game plan.
2. WR Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons—He is in the same boat as Randle. Even if Julio Jones (hip) plays, there will be snaps, targets and receptions for Matt Ryan's other outside threat.
3. RB Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars—The Tennessee Titans cannot stop anything or anyone. Gerhart finds the end zone Thursday night.
4. RB Lance Dunbar, Dallas Cowboys—If you are desperate enough to need four catches for 30 yards in a PPR format, Dunbar is your man.
5. RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings—His opportunity is more intriguing than his matchup. We will see the Miami Dolphins shut Asiata out of the end zone, which is really the only way he scores points for fantasy owners.
6. QB Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs—He is an intriguing two-quarterback league option, but that is about it.
7. K Connor Barth, Denver Broncos—Peyton Manning's struggles have put more field-goal attempts on the kicker's leg for the Broncos of late.
8. QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins—We are through hoping for a revival at this point, but hopefully he makes DeSean Jackson productive against his former team.
9. WR Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans—He is the go-to guy for the Titans in a matchup that couldn't be more promising.
10. RB Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers—If you have to rely on this undrafted rookie facing the San Francisco 49ers run defense, you have to be prepared to be a bridesmaid.

Quarterbacks

1. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
2. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills

Running Backs

1. Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys
2. Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars
3. James Starks, Green Bay Packers

Wide Receivers

1. Stedman Bailey, St. Louis Rams
2. Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tight Ends

1. Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens
2. Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams
3. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Defense/Special Teams

1. San Diego Chargers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 

Kickers

1. Connor Barth, Denver Broncos
2. Caleb Sturgis, Miami Dolphins
3. Shayne Graham, New Orleans Saints

Note: All data referencing fantasy scoring against specific positions is drawn from the sortable stat reports provided by FFToday.com.

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.