Russell Athletic Bowl Betting: Clemson vs. Oklahoma Odds, Analysis, Pick

The Clemson Tigers have gone into their last two bowls as underdogs on the betting lines and won both games outright, including that upset of Ohio State in the Orange Bowl last year. The 9-3 Tigers will be bowl dogs again when they hit the field at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando to challenge 8-4 Oklahoma in the Russell Athletic Bowl Monday, December 29.

Russell Athletic Bowl point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was off the board. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.9-37.3 Sooners

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers started 1-2 this season, including that overtime loss at eventual ACC champion Florida State but then won six games in a row. Clemson then lost at eventual Coastal Division champion Georgia Tech but won its last two games, including a 35-17 victory over South Carolina in the Palmetto Bowl that snapped a five-game losing streak in that rivalry.

For the season, the Tigers only rank 62nd in total offense and 80th in rushing but No. 1 in total defense, limiting opponents to just 260 yards per game, and seventh against the run, giving up just 98 yards per game on the ground. They also held seven foes to 17 points or less.

Why the Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners started 4-0 this year, then went 4-4 over their last eight games to finish at 8-4. But they could have easily gone 10-2 or 11-1. Oklahoma gave up two defensive touchdowns in a 37-33 loss to TCU; allowed another defensive score and missed seven points on kicks in a 31-30 loss to Kansas State; and gave up a 92-yard punt return with less than a minute to go that forced overtime in the Bedlam game against Oklahoma State and lost by a field goal.

On the season, the Sooners rank ninth in the country in rushing at 269 yards per game and 10th against the run, holding foes to 110 yards per game, and numbers like that are usually conducive to winning games and covering spreads.

Smart pick

Clemson will be without quarterback Deshaun Watson, who accounted for 19 touchdowns this season, before going down with a knee injury. The Tigers went 6-2 straight up this season in games in which backup quarterback Cole Stoudt took the majority of the snaps but just 2-6 against the spread, as the offense struggled without Watson.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma might be without record-setting running back Samaje Perine, but it looks like Trevor Knight will return at quarterback. The Sooners hold the edge on offense, while Clemson holds the edge on defense, and usually the better defense is the better bet. But not in this case; the smart money here resides with Oklahoma.

Trends

• Clemson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games
• The total has gone over in seven of Oklahoma's last nine games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.