UFC Heavyweights in 2015: Making Sense of the 265-Pound Logjam
The UFC’s heavyweights have never really found their stride.
For a brief time during the Brock Lesnar Administration, the 265-pound division felt fresh and vital. It felt—for lack of a better word—big. But first diverticulitis and then increasingly difficult competition felled Lesnar, and the heavyweight ranks lapsed back into their old, unstable tricks again.
Such was the case for almost all of 2014.
Current champion Cain Velasquez may be the most talented man ever to fight in the UFC’s heaviest weight class, but so far, it has been his penchant for injury that has mostly defined him. It also makes him feel like the perfect symbol for this eternally troubled division.
Velasquez missed the entire year while rehabbing from shoulder surgery and then filming a season of the UFC’s Ultimate Fighter reality show, only to injure his knee once it wrapped. As we move into 2015, almost everything in this weight class depends on how, if and when he’ll return.
Yet, late in 2014, the heavyweight division seems to be building a bit of momentum. Sure, it’s still kind of a jumbled mess, but it’s starting to feel like next year might be a fun one at 265 pounds.
Here’s an attempt to make sense of it all…
The Best and Brightest.
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Cain Velasquez’s latest injury forced the UFC into 4th-and-long in the weeks leading up to UFC 180. The fight company had no choice but to punt, inserting a short-notice Mark Hunt into an interim title match against Fabricio Werdum. Hunt made a strong showing early, but the bout ultimately ended the way most expected—with Werdum getting his hand raised.
At 37 years old, the championship victory culminates an impressive comeback story for Werdum. He and Valasquez currently stand alone at the top of the heavyweight mountain. Until these guys figure out who’s boss, the rest of the division will be left to fight it out among themselves.
The way forward: It actually figures to be fairly cut and dried. The UFC still wants this duo to fight in Mexico to decide its champion. If Velasquez can make it back by the June target date, all the better. If he can’t, the company will strip him and absolve Werdum of his interim tag. It would be a ruthless move, but it might also be a necessary one.
The Odd Man Out.
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Owing to his 1-2 record against Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos is in an unenviable position. It would take a fair bit of desperation on the UFC’s part in order to make a fourth fight between the two. On top of that, concerns over dos Santos’ long-term health are starting to emerge, after he once again sustained a ton of damage while eking out a decision over Stipe Miocic last weekend at UFC on Fox 13.
Everybody likes JDS. He’s one of the heavyweight division’s most charismatic characters and fearsome strikers. Right now, though, his best hole card is his 2008 victory over Fabricio Werdum. He just has to hope the dealer gives him the chance to play it before it’s too late.
The way forward: Dos Santos’ best hope is for Werdum—one way or another—to emerge with the title. If that happens, that previous win over the new champ makes him the perfect No. 1 contender. If it doesn’t, I still think we’ll see him fight Travis Browne next.
The Rest of the Best.
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The heavyweight division doesn't even really start to get interesting until you get outside the Top 3. For the first time in a long time, there’s a fairly compelling pack of second-tier types breathing down Junior dos Santos’ neck. Odds are, at least one member of this group—which I’m calling Travis Browne, Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem—ends up a top contender by the end of next year.
Overeem is the hoary old dog here, obviously. You get the feeling the UFC has been waiting for him to become a factor since it signed him back in 2011. A 2-3 start didn’t look promising, but last weekend’s first-round TKO over Stefan Struve was the first sign he might be capable of recapturing his former glory.
Browne, meanwhile, can probably make the best case for immediate consideration among the elite. He’s 7-2-1 in his UFC career and at 6'7" and 32 years old, he still very much looks the part of an up-and-comer. He was always dangerous while training with the masters at Greg Jackson’s MMA, and his recent move to Ronda Rousey’s Glendale Fight Club could rocket him into the stratosphere.
Miocic surprised a lot of people when he hung around with dos Santos for five full rounds last weekend. Moving forward though, moral victories won’t be enough. He’ll have to prove himself with wins against other bona fide top-level contenders.
The way forward: Really any equation involving the above three guys, plus Junior dos Santos results in a crowd-pleaser. Even though Miocic lost his fight to JDS, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the UFC treat him as a winner in his next booking. If dos Santos ends up fighting Browne, Miocic vs. Overeem wouldn’t be half bad.
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The Resurgent Renegades.
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Couldn’t blame you a bit if at some point you’d given up on the fighters in this category. Guys like Matt Mitrione, Todd Duffee, Ben Rothwell and Andrei Arlovski have all faced their own personal rock bottoms. Suddenly, any one of them feels just a win or two away from contender status headed into 2015.
Take Duffee, who was cut from the UFC back in 2010 for what sounded like generalized irreconcilable differences. Even after getting knocked out by Alistair Overeem in 19 seconds in Japan and missing significant time recovering from personal problems, he’s been able to rehabilitate himself with just a couple of wins in the Octagon.
Mitrione has been a staple in the UFC since appearing on TUF 10 but seemed like damaged goods when he went 1-3 from Oct. 2011-2013. Now, after three consecutive first-round finishes in 2014, he must be taken seriously. The same is (sort of) true for Arlovski and Rothwell, who've both rebounded from prolonged rough patches to become nominal players.
The way forward: Nothing would surprise. I still think Duffee could be a Top 5 heavyweight by the middle of next year. As for guys like Mitrione, Rothwell and Arlovski? Shake them up like a handful of dice and one of them will eventually nose ahead. I’m guessing it’ll probably be Mitrione.
The Senior Tour.
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If you’ve read anything about the UFC heavyweight class, you’ve probably noticed a common theme: This division is old. Not just kind of old, either. We’re talking, like, ancient.
You can’t swing a hard right hand in the 265-pound division without hitting a respected, but declining MMA pioneer. In this domain, graybeards like recent title challenger Mark Hunt (age 40), Josh Barnett (37), Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (35), Frank Mir (35) and Roy Nelson (38) are the rule, not the exception.
Even with a crop of relative young bloods like Miocic, Duffee and Browne leading the charge, the heavyweight gentleman’s auxiliary is still going to have to play a fairly leading role in 2015. Don’t expect guys like Hunt, Barnett or Nelson to suddenly strap UFC hardware around their waists next year, but they won’t just disappear, either.
The way forward: Limited. This is the heavyweight division, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that one of these guys could still fight his way to real contention. More likely, though, this group just keeps picking each other off one by one in the UFC’s answer to a 35-and-older round robin tournament.
The Uncertain Masses.
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Clearly, competing among the sport’s biggest, most powerful athletes comes with consequences. The cost of fighting at heavyweight is steep and the price goes up the longer your stick around.
As a result, the 265-pound ranks have a number of occupants who aren’t quite ready for the senior tour, but whose bodies have already endured tremendous mileage.
We all sat transfixed as Brendan Schaub recently suffered through a live intervention from friend and UFC color commentator Joe Rogan. Schaub is just 31 years old, but a 2-4 record in his last six bouts was apparently enough for Rogan to plead with him to think of other career paths.
Similarly, the 26-year-old Stefan Struve recently overcame a scary heart condition to return to the Octagon but got knocked out in the first round by Alistair Overeem. Now with five ugly T/KO losses on his record, its unclear how much longer fans will want to see Struve carry on.
At 35, Gabriel Gonzaga could almost qualify among the group on the last page but felt like he was on the comeback trail when he won two in a row during 2013. This year, however, he lost to both Stipe Miocic and Matt Mitrione. Like the others on this tier, those bouts cast Gonzaga’s future into doubt.
The way forward: Potentially bleak. It’s uncomfortable when any outsider tries to tell a fighter to call it quits. At the same time, it’s difficult to continue to watch guys we feel are holding on too long. It would be no surprise to see a few retirements come our way in 2015.
The Wildcards.
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Perhaps more than anything, the heavyweight division feels as though it still needs a considerable shakeup.
Once every six months or so a flurry of media speculation springs up around Brock Lesnar. So far, hopes/fears that the UFC’s one time Dark Lord of the Sith might return have proved unfounded. But Lesnar will turn 38 years old next summer. If he’s ever going to launch a comeback, he best scratch that itch soon.
By the same token, UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones recently speculated he might consider a move to 265-pounds. That is, if he can emerge unscathed from his current gauntlet, which includes Daniel Cormier on Jan. 3 and then potential challenges from Alexander Gustafsson and/or Anthony Johnson.
Cormier, too, could cause waves if he moved back up. To do that though, he’d not only likely have to lose his UFC 182 bout to Jones but also have it on good authority that friend and teammate Cain Velasquez wasn’t UFC heavyweight champion anymore.
The way forward: Interesting, but possibly empty. Lesnar probably isn’t coming back, and any speculation involving Jones or Cormier feels premature before those guys even fight each other. For the time being, we might all be stuck with our current dance partners.
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