Free MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: August 4th 2009

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds 7:10 ET
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NL Central sports betting continues on Tuesday night when the Chicago Cubs (56-48, -$168) and Cincinnati Reds (45-60, -$1304) partake in the second baseball wagering match-up of their three-game series at the Great American Ballpark. The first game of their baseball betting series was all about SP Randy Wells and 2B Mike Fontenot’s three-run bomb in the 2nd inning. Wells was simply brilliant once again churning out his third quality start in a row to secure his fourth consecutive victory and second against the Reds this season; he allowed just six hits and an ER through 7.1 innings. After blowing each of his last two save opportunities, Kevin Gregg rode the pine while Carlos Marmol looked to get the job done. Marmol was wild yet again, but after giving up a run and loading up the bases, he managed to get the 27th out and lock down his fourth save of the season. The 4-2 victory improved the Cubs to 23-29 on the road (-$890), and they jumped into a 1st place tie in the NL Central with the St. Louis Cardinals. As for the Reds, the loss was the teams seventh in a row and ninth in their L/10 overall. Manager Dusty Baker’s club is scuffling mightily, as they come into tonight’s MLB sports betting contest losers in 13 of their L/14 overall (-$1332). A trip to the post-season would be a miracle with them 11.5-games out in the division and 13-games out in the Wild Card race. Since dropping two of the first three ’09 meetings, the Cubs have dominated the Reds winning six of the next seven to take a 7-3 lead in this year’s season series.

Johnny Cueto and the Reds currently sit as short -115 home favorites at BetUS Sportsbook over Tom Gorzelanny and the Cubs for tonight’s match-up; the game ‘total’ currently sits at 8.5 over -115.

Southpaw Tom Gorzelanny will make his Cubs debut and first big league start in almost a year this evening. He had been on the Pirates roster at the beginning of the season but only played a relief role. He’s been pitching for Triple-A Indianapolis this year where he was 4-3 with a 2.48 ERA, and was scorching hot in July allowing just four ER’s through 32.1 total innings of work. In five career starts against the Reds, Tom’s posted a 2-2 record with a 7.54 ERA & 1.90 WHIP.

Johnny Cueto’s regression continued his last time out against the San Diego Padres where he got shelled for nine hits and six ER’s through just five innings; he got saddled with his second straight loss and fourth in his L/6 outings. July was a nightmare for him as he went 1-4 with a lofty 8.16 ERA in six outings, and he comes into his 22nd start of the year 8-8 with a 4.06 ERA & 1.34 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 95/43. He’s 1-1 against Chicago this season, and in his career, is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA & 1.29 WHIP vs. the Cubs.

While the Cubs are a bankroll bursting 2-11 when installed a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range, they’re 8-1 against losing clubs since the All Star break. Cincy can’t get out of its own way right now, and it doesn’t help that they’re batting at a woeful .164 clip against lefties their L/10 games. Chicago must take it to clubs like this in order to compete with the Redbirds the rest of the season. Look for Gorzo to impress in his Cubs debut and for Chicago to continue to own Dusty and the Reds!

Rose’s Recommendation: 2* Chicago Cubs +105 (Gorzelanny/Cueto)
(Rating Scale: 1* - 5*)