Duke Basketball: Preview and Prediction for Clash with UConn
A date with the defending national champions is not supposed to be like this.
The Duke basketball team plays Connecticut Thursday in what was expected to be a marquee nonconference showdown. Instead, it could be more of a warm-up game for the Blue Devils with conference play only two weeks away.
The Huskies are reeling at 4-3, but the record doesn't even tell the whole story. Connecticut lost both of its games against Power Five conference opponents of note (Texas and West Virginia) and even inexplicably dropped a game against Yale. Safe to say, it's not defending the college basketball throne effectively in the early going.
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This is still a clash between two of the most accomplished programs in college basketball history and is bound to make headlines. With that in mind, here is a look at some of the important storylines and matchups to watch for Thursday's game.
Big Man Battle
Even casual college basketball fans know about Duke's Jahlil Okafor at this point.
He is the freshman who is already patrolling the scene in the paint by grabbing every rebound in sight and carving out space for himself with NBA-ready post moves. He will likely be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft if he elects to turn pro and is the most dominant force in college basketball this side of Lexington.
Okafor is also fresh off an incredible performance against Elon, when he poured in 25 points and grabbed an astounding 20 rebounds.
However, he is not the only big man who made headlines leading up to this game. Connecticut's Amida Brimah posted a head-turning performance against Coppin State by scoring 40 points, grabbing 13 rebounds and swatting three shots. What's more, he made all 13 of his shots from the field and 14 of his 16 free throws.
Before that outburst, Brimah had yet to score more than 14 points or grab more than five rebounds in a single game.
The question now is whether that was an anomaly or a sophomore turning the corner. The only realistic chance Connecticut has in this game is if Brimah can at least keep the individual matchup with Okafor respectable. Nobody expects another 40-point performance, but he needs to at least contain Okafor and score in double figures himself.
That is much easier said than done against a potential future NBA star.
Crisis of Confidence
Connecticut may be the defending champ, but it looks like a shell of the version fans saw in March.
The Huskies lost three in a row to West Virginia, Texas and Yale earlier in the season and probably didn't feel great about giving up 85 points to Coppin State in the last game even though it was a win. It would be understandable if there was a lack of confidence in the UConn locker room heading into the showdown with Duke.
Head coach Kevin Ollie recognized the need for a marquee win, via Dom Amore of CTNow.com.
"It really gets you ready for March and April when you play at neutral sites against formidable foes," said Ollie. "We need signature wins for the NCAA, too. ... It's about 'now' for us."
If a Duke team that has already impressed against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Stanford and Temple jumps out to an early lead, it could put some doubt in the minds of the Huskies players. Beating the Blue Devils is hard enough on its own, and Connecticut doesn't need any self-doubt.
Three-Point Shooting
Three-point shooting is a key in almost any college game considering the amount of times teams launch it from deep with a shorter line than the NBA, but the difference between these two teams from deep really stands out.
UConn is shooting an abysmal 29.5 percent from three-point range this season while Duke is hitting 38.2 percent of its threes.
Given the Huskies' struggles from deep, Duke can pack the lane on defense and help on Brimah if needed. Having more Blue Devils in the lane will also lead to more rebounding and fewer second-chance points for the overmatched Huskies. On the other side, UConn may have to double Okafor if Brimah cannot handle the superstar on his own.
That will open up the likes of Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones from deep.
A barrage of three-pointers from Duke would make victory nearly impossible for the Huskies considering how much of a problem Okafor already represents down low. Connecticut may have to pick its poison and cross its fingers that the Blue Devils have an off-day from downtown.
The Veteran vs. the Freshman
Ryan Boatright is the senior leader for Connecticut and brings a championship pedigree to the table. He will be tasked with going up against Duke's superstar freshman point guard in Jones, who already torched Traevon Jackson and Wisconsin for 22 points, six rebounds and four assists and won't back down from the moment.
Boatright is a star in his own right, though, and has been one of the few bright spots for the Huskies in the early going. He is averaging 18.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals a game and will pose a problem for Jones on both sides of the ball. The Huskies won the national championship last season on the back of its pressure defense, and Boatright will apply that in spades against the young Jones in this one.
It should be mentioned that for as impressive as Jones was against Wisconsin, Jackson scored 25 points on the other end. Boatright will have opportunities to score and impact the game as an offensive player as well against Jones.
The luxury Mike Krzyzewski has for this matchup, though, is Winslow. If Boatright starts to go off, Coach K could switch Winslow onto him in an effort to swallow the smaller point guard up and limit Connecticut's ability to set anything up in the half court.
Ultimately, Duke just has too much talent on both ends of the floor for the Huskies. It is impossible to overlook Connecticut's early struggles that stand in stark contrast to Duke's perfect start when projecting this game. For every problem Connecticut brings to the table in Boatright or Brimah, the Blue Devils have at least one answer with Okafor, Jones and Winslow.
Look for the Blue Devils to gradually pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Duke 81, Connecticut 67
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