Duke Basketball: Games Most Likely to Bring Blue Devils' 1st Loss

The Duke Blue Devils haven't played since their impressive win at Wisconsin on Dec. 3. During that break, most of the other unbeaten teams in Division I have suffered a loss. The Blue Devils have four nonconference games to play—starting with Monday's visit from Elon—before jumping into ACC play.

To this point, Duke has looked nearly unbeatable.

Every outcome has been by at least 10 points, including the 80-70 win at then-No. 2 Wisconsin, yet there hasn't been much discussion about the Blue Devils going undefeated like there has with top-ranked Kentucky.

Is that because Duke's not good enough to win all its games, its remaining schedule is too rife with potential pitfalls or a combination of both?

Let's address the schedule portion of that debate by ranking the teams that are most likely to hand the Blue Devils their first loss this season.

7. March 7 at North Carolina

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Ranking North Carolina lowest on this list is far less about the Tar Heels and their struggles than the placement of this game on the schedule.

UNC hosts Duke in the regular-season finale, meaning the Blue Devils would need to be 30-0 heading to Chapel Hill, which seems unlikely considering the other games they have before this on the schedule.

Earlier in the slate, the chances of this being Duke's first loss would increase, but not that much considering how the Tar Heels have played of late. North Carolina (6-3) has lost two of its last three, losing at home to Iowa and by 16 at Kentucky, showing softness inside and a lack of outside shooting beyond junior guard Marcus Paige.

6. Dec. 18 vs. Connecticut (in East Rutherford, N.J.)

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Connecticut (4-3) dropped three straight before Sunday's 106-85 win over Coppin State, looking very little like a defending national champion and very much like a team that's struggling to find an identity with its new lineup.

The Huskies lost two major pieces from last year's title team, and while senior guard Ryan Boatright has managed to slide into Shabazz Napier's team-leader role in the backcourt the rest of the team hasn't gelled particularly well yet. Freshman wing Daniel Hamilton has been effective, but guards Sam Cassell Jr. and Rodney Purvis (a North Carolina State transfer) have struggled mightily with their shooting.

Sunday's win served as a breakout game for sophomore center Amida Brimah, who came in averaging 9.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 blocks before hitting all 13 field goals and shooting 14-of-16 from the line for 40 points with 12 rebounds.

This game will be played at the Izod Center in New Jersey, but Duke figures to have as many fans as UConn—if not more. What could make this a tough challenge for the Blue Devils will be the lack of recent competition, since their only game in a 15-day span will be against Elon.

5. Feb. 14 at Syracuse

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Duke and Syracuse played an instant classic in the Carrier Dome last season, with the home team pulling out a 91-89 overtime victory in early February to remain unbeaten. The Blue Devils got revenge three weeks later at home, part of Syracuse's late-season tailspin.

The Orange (6-3) have been far from perfect this season, needing a hook shot from senior forward Rakeem Christmas with 2.8 seconds left to snap a two-game skid and beat Louisiana Tech, 71-69, on Sunday at home.

Christmas has been one of the most improved players in the country this season—and freshman forward Chris McCullough has shown a lot of promise—but Syracuse's backcourt play has been inconsistent.

Syracuse traditionally plays far better at home, but besides the near-loss to Louisiana Tech, it has also fallen in the dome to St. John's this season.

4. Jan. 25 at St. John's

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Duke likes to play games in the New York City area, but when it tips off against St. John's (8-1) in Madison Square Garden, it could be facing a red-hot Red Storm.

St. John's, which beat Fordham, 74-53, on Sunday, has an impressive 12-point win at Syracuse already on its resume. The team's only loss was by seven points to Gonzaga in the NIT Season Tip-Off finals in November.

Steve Lavin's veteran team is finally coming together, with three seniors and a junior among the Red Storm's top five scorers. Senior guard D'Angelo Harrison leads in both scoring (19.7) and rebounding (7.3), while sophomore guard Rysheed Jordan is averaging 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists.

It will be a home game for St. John's, but Duke traditionally plays well at neutral sites because of its nationwide fan base. With the way the Red Storm have looked this season, though, the crowd won't be as pro-Duke as in past trips to New York City.

3. Jan. 28 at Notre Dame

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Duke was Notre Dame's first-ever ACC opponent last season, a game the Fighting Irish won at home despite not having their leading scorer available because of an academic suspension.

Jerian Grant is back and as good as ever, pacing Notre Dame to a stellar 10-1 start that includes a 20-point win over Florida State on Saturday in its conference opener.

The Irish are averaging just shy of 85 points per game thanks to the nation's No. 1 field-goal efficiency at 55.7 percent (Duke ranks second at 53.9 percent). Only a one-point loss to Providence in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic final in Springfield, Mass., has kept the Irish from being perfect—and they still shot 50 percent from the field in that game.

Grant, a senior guard, was averaging 19 points per game before getting suspended last December. He's scoring 18.9 this season, shooting 57.8 percent and dishing out six assists per contest. Junior forward Zach Auguste is averaging 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds, and shooting 65.3 percent. Senior swingman Pat Connaughton has chipped in 12.7 points and 7.6 rebounds.

2. Jan. 31 at Virginia

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Playing a third road game in a one-week span would be dangerous regardless of the opponent, but when it's the defending ACC regular-season and tournament champions (who happen to look even better this season) it's a recipe for disaster.

That's what Duke will face in late January when it wraps up a tough road swing with a trip to Virginia after facing St. John's and Notre Dame. The Blue Devils didn't have to play in Charlottesville last season, beating the Cavaliers at home but then falling to them in the ACC title game.

This year's Virginia team has been quite impressive—off to its first 9-0 start in 13 years with a blend of efficient offense and lockdown defense. The Cavs are third in the country in field-goal defense (32.1 percent) and have held three opponents under 40 points. Their most recent performance might have been the best, winning 74-57 at VCU while shooting 68.3 percent.

Juniors Justin Anderson and Anthony Gill have bumped up their scoring from a year ago, averaging 15.8 and 13 points per game, respectively, compared to 7.8 and 8.6 in 2013-14. Both are shooting at least 57 percent, with Gill hitting on 65.6 of his shots so far.

1. Jan. 17 at Louisville

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By far, the most likely opponent to provide Duke with its first loss could also be unbeaten when the two meet. Louisville (9-0) was winning its games by a nearly 26-point average margin before Sunday's 68-57 victory over UNC-Wilmington.

The Cardinals haven't shown signs of dropping off from last season, despite losing star guard Russ Smith. That's because junior forward Montrezl Harrell is playing as well as anyone in the country, averaging 17 points and 10.4 rebounds per game while shooting 62.1 percent after going for 19 points and 17 rebounds on Sunday.

Beyond Harrell, though, Louisville is shutting down opponents and getting strong guard play from Terry Rozier and Chris Jones, both of whom have stepped into new roles this season but are playing like seasoned veterans.

Louisville has a strong shot to be 17-0 when Duke comes to town, though it hosts top-ranked Kentucky and plays at North Carolina beforehand. Either way, this game will be a big one.

And if Duke is still unbeaten, this will be a prime place to suffer that first loss.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.