Sugar Bowl Betting: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds, Analysis

The Ohio State Buckeyes are hoping their third quarterback this season will be the lucky charm that leads them to an upset win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl and a berth in this year’s national championship game.

The Buckeyes rode third-string QB Cardale Jones to a 59-0 rout of the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game, earning them the final spot in the College Football Playoff field. But they will face a tough task against the SEC champion, the Crimson Tide, who have gone 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four games versus Big Ten schools.

Sugar Bowl point spread: Crimson Tide opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 58.5. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 50.0-46.7 Buckeyes

Why the Buckeyes can cover the spread

Ohio State’s offensive system produces results, period. Led by head coach Urban Meyer, a well-known quarterback whisperer who has enabled Alex Smith and Tim Tebow to become first-round NFL draft picks, the Buckeyes managed to roll through the Big Ten undefeated at 8-0.

Keep in mind, this is also a team that was 12-0 heading into last year’s Big Ten Championship Game and went 12-0 in 2012 as well. Meyer has lost just three games in three years at the school, and he knows the SEC very well from his days as head coach of the Florida Gators.

Ohio State would not be in this spot without Meyer, and he is the only reason this team has any shot at a national title.

Why the Crimson Tide can cover the spread

If there is any coach in the country who can win a strategic matchup with Meyer, it’s Alabama’s Nick Saban, who has won two of the three career meetings between them. That makes this an intriguing battle of X’s and O’s.

There’s no doubt the Crimson Tide will be ready for the Buckeyes offense with Jones under center. Their defense was stifling in a 42-13 rout of the Missouri Tigers in the SEC Championship Game and will not be like anything Ohio State has seen this season. Alabama is the top seed in the field for a reason and will flex its muscles again here.

Smart Pick

Meyer’s 2006 Florida squad crushed the Buckeyes, 41-14, in a high-profile matchup between SEC and Big Ten schools in the 2007 BCS Championship Game that started a run of seven straight national titles for the conference. Ohio State also lost to the LSU Tigers the following year for the national championship, and the SEC has still had at least one team in the title game each of the past eight years.

That streak is on the line for the Crimson Tide, who are looking for their fourth national championship in six years. In order to get to the title game, Alabama must hold the Buckeyes in check offensively. If the Virginia Tech Hokies were able to do that in a 35-21 victory at Ohio State on Sept. 6, the Crimson Tide can certainly win by a similar margin.

Trends

• Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last five games
• Alabama is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.