Is Carson Palmer a Fantasy Football Sleeper?

Everywhere I turn, Carson Palmer is being touted as a sleeper. Seriously, it's just about unanimous (which would completely go against the whole "sleeper" concept, but I digress).

I'm guessing that's because he's "reportedly" 100 percent healthy and throwing without pain.

Well, forgive me for being a realist, but I'm not buying it.

Here are the facts: Palmer needed Tommy John surgery last season, decided to forgo the procedure, and opted for rest and rehab.

Supposedly, he's now cured (this despite his own admission less than two months ago that his arm strength was significantly weaker). 

It's a cute story and all, but my question is this: When's the last time a professional athlete needed TJ surgery, skipped the procedure, and went on to play successfully?

Waiting...

 

Still waiting...

 

(whistling)

 

Didn't think so.

What we have seen from players who've gone the rest-and-rehab route (when surgery was recommended) is that they've felt great in the short-term and were able to throw without pain in non-game situations. Once they started playing the real games, however, and they tried to put a little something extra on that pass/pitch, they realized something wasn't right. 

To be fair, doctors did tell Palmer he could heal without the surgery (we've heard that before), so this isn't necessarily a case of a player in denial. And again, the basis for my disbelief is based strictly on pitchers who opted to forgo the procedure (when it was recommended) and who were able to play at a high level after making that decision (zero).

For the sake of those planning to draft Palmer based on his popular sleeper status, I really do hope I'm wrong. 

But I still don't trust him as far as Edinson Volquez can throw a fastball right now.