Heisman Watch 2014: Updated Predictions for Race's Leaders

People often debate the meaning of "valuable" when handing out MVP awards, but that type of debate is crystal clear when compared to the criteria for the Heisman Trophy.  Performance and statistics obviously come first, but sometimes it seems as though the storylines and tradition have as much to do with determining the winner as anything within the control of the players.

Because of this, the media's take often heavily shapes the voting process.  Numerous people have suggested that Marcus Mariota has separated himself as the clear favorite, but that does not mean that college football fans should approach the ceremony with a feeling of inevitability.  

The narrative has yet to reach a consensus on fellow finalists Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper, suggesting that there is still room for the race's hierarchy to change.

Breaking down the credentials of the three finalists, let's predict their likely current standing while also analyzing how that position might change.

Third: Amari Cooper

Alabama's junior receiver has established himself as arguably the nation's most explosive threat.  Cooper's 115 receptions and 1,656 receiving yards both led the country, while only Colorado State's Rashard Higgins topped Cooper's 14 touchdowns.  As such, it's hardly surprising that Cooper ended up taking home some form of postseason hardware:

Simply because of positional prejudice, it seems as though Cooper currently stands a close third.  However, playing in the nation's deepest conference, he put up what was easily the best statistical season by an SEC receiver over the last five years. 

Therefore, when comparing Cooper to the previous baseline of fellow receivers in his conference, he has exceeded the standard more than either Gordon or Mariota.  Whereas Wisconsin and Oregon essentially mass produce massive offensive numbers, Cooper's ascendance was arguably the primary reason for the Crimson Tide's sudden transformation into an explosive offense.

But a full-time wide receiver has not won the Heisman since Tim Brown in 1987, as even Desmond Howard had his punt return game to boost his candidacy in 1991.  It's astounding that the position has not broken through given how offense has evolved, but Cooper is as deserving a candidate as any in this drought that has now exceeded two decades.

Second: Melvin Gordon

The Heisman voting process remains the one safeguard for running backs.  In the 26 seasons since Brown last won the Heisman, six running backs have won the award, excluding Reggie Bush's vacated 2005 victory.  Though the marginalization of the running game has just kicked in recently, the likes of Andre Williams and Trent Richardson have still made serious runs within the past three years.

However, Gordon is the one running back in the country who deserves exemption from that prevailing truth.  We just referenced how Cooper's season has been historic by SEC standards, and while the Big 10 has not provided its typical level of competition, Gordon is still having one of the greatest rushing campaigns in FBS history:

Unlike seasons past, there was no two- or three-headed monster in the Wisconsin backfield.  No other Badgers back reached 1,000 yards, and though sophomore Corey Clement has shown promise, Gordon still received 309 rushing attempts, the second most in the country.  His 26 rushing touchdowns also led the nation, and no other running back from a Power Five conference eclipsed Gordon's 7.6 yards-per-carry average.

Indeed, it's simply unfair to claim that Gordon is another byproduct of the Badgers system, as his season far surpassed anything in the program's recent history.  As much as Cooper deserves credit for changing the long-standing identity of Alabama's offense, Gordon gets the nod for raising the bar at a school that already represented the vanguard of rushing offense.

First: Marcus Mariota

Putting Mariota first is certainly not a rejection of Cooper or Gordon, who have posted two of the best offensive skill-position seasons in recent FBS history.  However, as Grantland's Matt Borcas illuminates, perhaps the most impressive aspect of Mariota's campaign has been the fact that he has somehow fulfilled the seemingly limitless preseason hype: 

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In truth, the only strange thing about Mariota’s regular season is that it went almost exactly according to plan. Even the one slip-up — Oregon’s31-24 October loss to Arizona, in which Mariota performed rather unremarkably — is moot after Friday’s 51-13 shellacking of those same Wildcats in the Pac-12 championship game, which cemented Oregon’s spot in the College Football Playoff. That mulligan made Mariota’s Heisman candidacy nearly unimpeachable, leaving the only real drama as whether he’ll break Troy Smith’s record for first-place votes, which stands at 86 percent. If he does, he’ll have earned it.

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With a stunning 38-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Mariota posted the fourth-highest quarterback rating since the turn of the century, according to Sports-Reference.com.  Statistically, his season is almost exactly on par with the winning campaign Jameis Winston turned in last season, except with fewer turnovers:

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp %	Yds	TD	INT	Rating
Mariota	254	372	68.3	3773	38	2	186.1
Winston	247	365	67.7	3909	38	10	186.5

Quite simply, Mariota has put up an equally historic season as Cooper or Gordon while also stabilizing an Oregon team that was teetering amid injuries midseason.  Considering that the Ducks are now arguably the favorite to win the inaugural playoff, Mariota deserves recognition for being the clear-cut best quarterback in the nation this season.