New Orleans Bowl Betting: Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Odds, Analysis, Pick

Louisiana-Lafayette is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the New Orleans Bowl the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Nevada is 1-6 straight up over its last seven bowl appearances but 2-0 against the spread in its last two bowls. The 8-4 Ragin' Cajuns and 7-5 Wolf Pack meet in the 14th edition of the New Orleans Bowl Saturday, December 20 at the Superdome.

New Orleans Bowl point spread: Wolf Pack opened as one-point favorites; the total was 60.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 30.2-29.8 Wolf Pack

Why the Wolf Pack can cover the spread

After going 4-8 in Brian Polian's first season as head coach last year, the Pack used a three-game second-half winning streak this season to become bowl-eligible. Nevada then lost two in a row—one in overtime to Air Force—but ended the season on a high note, beating UNLV 49-27 and covering as a seven-point road favorite.

Nevada trailed in that game 17-7 and then went on a 42-3 run. And by the end the Wolf Pack had run the ball for 408 yards. Earlier in the season Nevada upset Washington State out of the Pac-12, lost by just a touchdown at eventual Pac-12 South champion Arizona, fell to Boise State by just five points and won at BYU.

So the Pack have put on some good performances against some decent teams this season.

Why the Ragin' Cajuns can cover the spread

After a 1-3 start to this season, the Cajuns won seven of their last eight games and went 5-1-1 against the spread over their last seven to make a bowl for the fourth straight season. UL-Lafayette finished its season with a 42-23 victory over Troy, covering as 10-point favorites.

The Cajuns trailed that game at halftime and then won the second half 21-0. On the season UL-Lafayette outrushed opponents by a 229-147 per-game average, as three Cajuns, led by running back Elijah McGuire, ran for more than 600 yards. And the UL-Lafayette defense, which had some problems earlier in the season, held three of its last five foes to 23 points or less.

Smart Pick

Nevada went 7-5 against the spread this season against a much tougher schedule than the one UL-Lafayette faced. And while the Pack gave Boise State a tough game, falling just 51-46, the Cajuns did not, losing to the Broncos 34-9. So despite UL-Lafayette's home-crowd advantage, the smart choice in this spot is Nevada.

Trends

• The total has gone under in 14 of Nevada's last 18 games.
• Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.