Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions: Complete Week 15 Preview for Detroit
The Minnesota Vikings make their annual trek to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions this Sunday. Oddsmakers might not see much of a game brewing (Detroit -8.5 per Odds Shark). The league thinks otherwise considering the decision to flex the contest to a late-afternoon time slot.
By now, you've been inundated with playoff scenarios for the 9-4 Lions. The simple truth is that three wins guarantee a spot, and two might be enough.
However, Detroit can ill afford to drop its final home game. The Chicago Bears might be imploding, but it's still an outdoor game in cold weather for a team that doesn't run the ball well.
The Vikings were hospitable hosts in early October, letting Detroit walk with a 17-3 victory. They have the look of a much better team this time around, with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater fresh off two straight games with a quarterback rating over 117.
Can the Lions mow down Minnesota's surging signal-caller? Or will the Vikings avenge the early defeat with a vertical passing game capable of bothering Detroit's defensive backs?
Click through to find out.
Lions' Week 14 Recap
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The story stayed the same in Week 15, with the offense replicating the prior week's performance in a 34-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Matthew Stafford was given plenty of time to find options in the intermediate passing game. The result was another day with over 75 percent passing, 311 yards and three scores without a single turnover.
The impetus to the offensive bonanza was the continued education of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. He utilized the pass early and often in drives. He let his players do what they do well instead of focusing on balance.
After the offense jumped out to an early 17-3 lead, a couple defensive penalties and a long pass allowed Tampa to cut the lead to seven just before halftime. And while the defense would struggle with flags (the team had nine for 122 yards), the front seven recorded six sacks and 14 quarterback hits, rendering Josh McCown ineffective.
Detroit's 68 points the last two games is 15 more than it had scored in the previous four combined. The offensive line is healthy and jelling, as only one sack against the Bucs could be "credited" to men up front. The competition will be stiffer this week. We should find out if the offense is really rolling or just feasting on the fragile.
News and Notes
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Ndamukong Suh Has Made a Decision...But It's Not What You Think
Ndamukong Suh's rookie contract will terminate shortly after the 2014 season wraps up. Once free agency opens, he'll be free to sign with any franchise in the league.
You already knew that. You also are aware that his agent, Jimmy Sexton, and the Lions have tabled any contract negotiations until the end of the season. Naturally, this has led to a lot of questions about Suh's future that he had thus far refused to answer.
Until this past week when Suh dished on the biggest story of Detroit's offseason at a press conference, as quoted by Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
"'It'll be Jimmy's decision, so we'll go with that,' Suh said. 'You can call Jimmy if you want to.'
Asked whether he meant that Sexton will pick what team he plays for next year, Suh said, 'Probably will. Yup.'
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You didn't really think he'd say anything substantial, did you?
More than likely, this was Suh answering the question in a different way than just saying no comment or some other non-answer. He's probably sick of being asked a question that everyone knows he won't reply to.
If there is anything that could be gleaned from this scintillating statement, it's that his next employer will need to offer more compensation than the rest of Suh's suitors. That's shocking for a man who has 10-figure aspirations.
Joseph Fauria Emulated his Idols and Ended up on the IR
Fauria isn't a shy guy. The 6'7" red-zone threat isn't scared of sending a social-media salvo, and his post-touchdown theatrics are his claim to fame nationally.
Turns out he's also tough. Fauria aggravated his high-ankle sprain early against the Bucs, but shook it off (first idol) in order to test out his twerk (second idol) after his first score of the season. Unfortunately, that enthusiasm didn't carry over to this week:
"Lions placed TE Joseph Fauria on season-ending I.R. with an ankle injury.
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 10, 2014"
Matthew Stafford will miss the big galoot near the end zone. The second-year tight end grabbed seven touchdowns last year, many of the jump-ball variety. While he didn't come anywhere near that level of success this year, it's still a missing arrow from Stafford's quiver.
Detroit signed veteran Kellen Davis to fill his roster spot. Davis was with the team earlier this season and should serve as a steady blocker during the stretch run.
Forever Flagged
Lost in the large point differential from that win over Tampa was a flaw that could turn fatal against better competition. As Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press illustrates, the Lions have been garnering plenty of attention, and most of it isn't positive:
"The Detroit Lions had a hard time playing within the rules yet again Sunday, when they were flagged nine times in a 34-17 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That brought the Lions' total to 117 penalties (for 841 yards) called against them — ninth-highest in the NFL — through 13 games.
By comparison, last year's so-called undisciplined Lions under Jim Schwartz had 126 penalties (for 935 yards) called against them. This year, the Lions are on pace to have 144 penalties.
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That means this past game wasn't an aberration. It was precisely the norm since Detroit is now averaging nine penalties per game.
Not all of them hand over first downs, and not all of them will wipe out a big stop. However, against an offensively challenged team like the Bucs, a facemask penalty committed by defensive end Jason Jones resulted in a Tampa touchdown. What's going to happen when Aaron Rodgers is given a second chance?
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Status* |
| Josh Bynes | LB | Illness | NP | NP | LP | Probable |
| Nick Fairley | DT | Knee | NP | NP | NP | Out |
| Ndamukong Suh | DT | Illness | Not Listed | NP | LP | Probable |
| Reggie Bush | RB | Ankle | NP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Darius Slay | CB | Shoulder | Not Listed | LP | FP | Probable |
| LaAdrian Waddle | OT | Concussion | LP | LP | FP | Probable |
| Tahir Whitehead | LB | Shoulder | Not Listed | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | Ankle | LP | FP | FP | Probable |
*All injury news is sourced from DetroitLions.com.
Both of the players with illnesses are likely to go this weekend. This was the first time Suh has missed a practice, let alone a game, and sports history is littered with players grinding through sicknesses.
As sure as I am that both will play, I'm equally as certain that Fairley won't. C.J. Mosley will continue to pick up the slack with the starters.
Slay's and Whitehead's additions are due to shoulder injuries sustained in practice, per Justin Rogers of mlive.com. Bynes would step into Whitehead's role, and if both are ruled out, that would force DeAndre Levy to move inside with Kyle Van Noy getting his first career start outside.
The practice casualties continued with Waddle. Concussions are a tricky injury to predict. Cornelius Lucas could be in line for his second career start.
Johnson is listed with the same injury that he's played through the past few weeks. Considering his output over that term, there's nothing to worry about.
As for Bush, head coach Jim Caldwell's conservative injury approach could keep him on the sideline. Here's betting not too many fans complain if that prognosis makes Sunday difficult for the older running back.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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DE Ezekiel Ansah vs. OT Matt Kalil
Kalil's season falls somewhere between disastrous and Aaron Gibson. The nadir was probably his first matchup with the man nicknamed Ziggy.
Ansah has been highlighted in this section on an almost weekly basis because he's tied with Mario Williams as the second-highest-graded defensive end, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). And he has the second-highest pass-rushing productivity score, meaning only Robert Ayers is more efficient pressuring the passer.
It should be noted that Ziggy has logged 123 more snaps, and has 10 more hurries and 2.5 more sacks.
And he grabbed those 2.5 sacks last time he faced Kalil. To make matters worse, Kalil gave up three hurries as well en route to a -6.4 grade PFF grade, his lowest of the season by 1.4.
S Glover Quin vs. QB Teddy Bridgewater
The Vikings—like many teams this year—moved the ball into the red zone before turning it over to their rookie quarterback. He was promptly baited by the veteran safety, as Quin stepped in front of Cordarrelle Patterson for the easy interception.
Bridgewater ended the game with three picks and sustained eight sacks. Since I pitted him against defensive coordinator Teryl Austin in this spot prior to that game, I switched it up to include Austin's defensive quarterback this time.
Quin is thriving in his new role as a free safety and taking advantage of the pressure created by the front seven. Considering Minnesota's health issues along its offensive line, he'll be keying on Bridgewater, looking to add to his career-high interception total (five).
OG Larry Warford vs. DT Linval Joseph
Before Matthew Stafford can look for this week's X-factor, he'll need clean real estate to step into. His pocket presence has improved throughout the season, but it won't matter if Joseph is allowed to wreak havoc again.
Joseph got after Stafford in their first meeting. He posted two hurries to pair with three defensive stops (tackles that cause offensive failures) and a sack. If Anthony Barr and Sharrif Floyd can't go, Minnesota will be leaning heavily on Joseph.
In Warford's return from injury, he didn't give up a single pressure to Gerald McCoy. Warford has rebounded from a poor start to the season and should be able to handle this assignment.
Lions' X-Factor of the Week: WR Calvin Johnson
Sometimes analysts go out on a limb to differentiate themselves and show how much they know. Other times, the smart call is to walk out onto a terrace with a concrete foundation laid 10 feet into solid earth.
Johnson didn't suit up in Detroit's Week 6 win, and Stafford struggled his way to 185 yards. Megatron has racked up over 300 yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks.
Obviously, Johnson is unguardable at his best, but his value will trickle down to everyone on the roster. Golden Tate will find much more room to roam, and Eric Ebron can continue to work the underneath routes with safeties sitting at least 10 yards off the line of scrimmage.
Prediction
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The Vikings are growing into a solid team under rookie head coach Mike Zimmer. They've won four of their last six games and narrowly missed a stunning upset of the Packers.
But that game was at TCF Bank Stadium. This one will be played at Ford Field where the Lions would be 7-0 if they'd found Matt Prater a couple weeks earlier.
The injury report doesn't help matters. Four of Minnesota's top defensive players—Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd, Harrison Smith and Everson Griffin—are all ailing.
Now, a defense that just allowed 24 points to the New York Jets in Minnesota walks into Matthew Stafford's den. Detroit's signal-caller has his best receiver this time and has led back-to-back 34-point performances.
That's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie quarterback against one of the league's most aggressive defenses. This one will play out similarly to the October meeting, with Detroit jumping out to a bigger lead.
Score: Detroit 38, Minnesota 17
Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.
All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription.
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