UFC on Fox 13 Predictions: Main Card Staff Predictions
As if The Ultimate Fighter 20 finale on Friday wasn't enough, the Octagon is primed for a quick turnaround, as UFC on Fox 13 will air this Saturday, December 13.
The card is bursting at the seams, with 13 clashes on the ledger (no word yet on whether the No. 13 is mere coincidence, homage to Dan Marino or something more sinister), with four scraps composing the main card.
The UFC on Fox 13 main card includes:
- Junior dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic
- Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz
- Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve
- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Matt Mitrione
Among this quartet are some influential bouts in the heavyweight division, as well as a meaningful fight at 155 pounds. There is no shortage of import to be found within the main card, but rankings and title implications are just the tip of the iceberg.
What's really at stake this Saturday? Well, as the penultimate event of 2014, UFC on Fox 13 stands as a pivotal moment in the main card staff prediction series, which is coming down to the wire.
Sean "The Pine Weasel" Smith, Scott "The Hare" Harris, Riley "Python" Kontek, James "Bumble Bee" MacDonald and Craig "Capybara" Amos deliver our latest round of forecasts, right here.
2014 Staff Records
1 of 5
Glory is hanging in the balance. This weekend is a big one. With fight cards on both Friday and Saturday evening, we stride the razor's edge between victory and failure.
I am staked to a measly one-fight lead, so the metaphor becomes a touch scary, knowing full well that both Riley and James are poised and eager to push me aside and claim the lead for themselves.
*Updated to include The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned results.
As of now, here are the standings:
- Craig Amos: 143-77-1
- Riley Kontek: 142-78-1
- James MacDonald: 141-79-1
- Sean Smith: 134-86-1
- Scott Harris: 126-94-1
It's a three-horse race. Riley, James and I are all in it to win it. Unfortunately, only one of us can emerge the victor. Or we could all tie, or something. I guess anything is possible.
Except for Sean or Scott winning. That's not possible.
Another assured outcome: I crush Riley next weekend in the Bleacher Report MMA writer's fantasy football championship. I fear nothing when I'm trotting this guy out to the fantasy field.
Anyway, let's get to the picks for UFC on Fox 13.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Matt Mitrione
2 of 5
Scott Harris
Can you believe that Matt Mitrione is a year older than Gabriel Gonzaga? (Mitrione is 36; Gonzaga is 35.) Gonzaga seems old enough to be Mitrione's father. He's certainly older in terms of MMA mileage, but he has the edge in expertise, too. His jiu-jitsu will be a factor, and Mitrione won't have an answer.
Gonzaga, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Mitrione has momentum and athleticism on his side, but that is about it. Gonzaga has vastly improved as a striker and will be the best grappler Mitrione has faced. Also more experienced by a long shot, Gonzaga should be able to rebound in this matchup.
Gonzaga, submission, Rd. 1
James MacDonald
Gonzaga has improved a lot as a mixed martial artist over the past few years. However, success against Mitrione may be contingent on his ability to take the TUF Season 10 veteran down. I'm not convinced he has the wrestling to get it done, though. If this remains a striking contest, Mitrione's more refined technique should give him the edge.
Mitrione, TKO, Rd. 2
Riley Kontek
Mitrione is always a hit-or-miss pick, but seeing his athleticism, strength and quickness, he is a tough matchup for Gonzaga. The Brazilian is vastly superior on the ground, but he may have trouble getting Mitrione down. The American's striking should carry him here, as his combos and footwork will be overwhelming.
Mitrione, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Gonzaga's chin is always something to consider, especially when he's fighting a knockout specialist like Mitrione. But Gonzaga is not incapable of knocking guys out. Plus, he is light-years ahead of Mitrione on the mat. Light-years!
Gonzaga, submission, Rd. 2
Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve
3 of 5
Scott Harris
Who doesn't want to see Stefan Struve perform well in his return? I want to see that. But he's been out for quite a while, and even in the best of times he wasn't the great outside striker you would assume he'd be because of his reach. Even so, he'll want to please the crowd, and that will bode well for a win-starved Alistair Overeem.
Overeem, TKO, Rd. 2
Sean Smith
Against an active Struve, I'd be worried about Overeem's chin. I still am, but Struve has been out of action for so long and probably has so much going on in his head that it's hard to envision him being at his best on Saturday. This one is going to end in a knockout either way, and I see Overeem being the one with his hand raised.
Overeem, knockout, Rd. 1
James MacDonald
It's hard not to worry about Overeem's chin. As is the case with Brendan Schaub, the Dutchman just doesn't have the punch resistance to be a force in the heavyweight division. That being said, Struve doesn't pack a ton of power compared to the rest of the division. If Overeem can absorb Struve's shots, his superior striking should get the job done.
Overeem, TKO, Rd. 1
Riley Kontek
Struve's ground game is an underrated aspect here, but his layoff and health issues concern me. He also tends to defend punches with his face, which is a poor quality when scrapping with a juggernaut like Overeem. This will be just another knockout loss on Struve's record.
Overeem, knockout, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
I make a habit of picking against Overeem, but not this time. Even though Struve could conceivably pull off the knockout, his chin likely won't hold up long enough for him to land that clean connection he'll need.
Overeem, TKO, Rd. 1
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Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz
4 of 5
Scott Harris
Heart says Diaz; head says dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has too much strength and too many tools for Diaz to overcome. The striking phase might be an area of particular interest; there should be some good exchanges, but Dos Anjos has a decided power edge.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Diaz usually doesn't have to worry about fighting off his back, but it could be a problem in this matchup. The only time Dos Anjos has been submitted inside the Octagon was when he injured his jaw against Clay Guida. The Brazilian avoids boxing with Diaz and keeps the momentum going at UFC on Fox 13.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
If the fight stays on the feet, Diaz can certainly compete with Dos Anjos. Unfortunately for Stockton's second favorite son, the Brazilian likely won't be content to make this a kickboxing match. Expect Dos Anjos' superior all-around MMA game to be the difference here.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
This is a closer matchup than it appears, but the volume striking and cardio of Nate Diaz are hard to ignore. Dos Anjos has more power, but keeping up with the hands of Diaz will ultimately make him uncomfortable. Even on the ground Diaz is no picnic, which is why this is a tough matchup for RDA. Expect a Diaz win and hilarious post-fight interview.
Diaz, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
This is an intriguing matchup, both on the feet and on the mat. Dos Anjos is the one with the luxury of deciding where the action will take place though, so that's a big edge for him. It also means that when the fight hits the ground, he is likely to be on top, and that could be significant if the judges get involved.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Junior dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic
5 of 5
Scott Harris
If Miocic can best Junior dos Santos, he's on another level. But the striking diversity and takedown defense might be too much for Miocic. Junior will reclaim his place as the best heavyweight in the world not named Cain Velasquez (and maybe Fabricio Werdum).
Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 3
Sean Smith
Miocic's wrestling could make this a tricky matchup for dos Santos. However, the former champion has stopped just about everybody except Velasquez from taking him down. If that continues on Saturday, Dos Santos' boxing should carry him to another win.
Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
Miocic is a very good boxer and wrestler. The problem is his boxing is not on Dos Santos' level, and he lacks the wrestling to reliably take him down. It's just a tough matchup for Miocic. He should be competitive but ultimately to no avail.
Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 3
Riley Kontek
As much as I like Miocic, Dos Santos is the second-best heavyweight in the world behind Velasquez. Miocic can use his wrestling here, but the Brazilian is tough to get down. Dos Santos also has quick, heavy hands, which will be the demise of Miocic.
Dos Santos, knockout, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
Miocic has had an impressive 2014 thus far, but will he cap it off by cementing himself as the newest heavyweight contender? Probably not. Though he is one of the top guys in the division, he is at a striking disadvantage, and though he wields good wrestling, dos Santos has had to get used to Velasquez's game, so he should be ready.
Dos Santos, knockout, Rd. 3
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