UFC on Fox 13 Bold Predictions: Junior Dos Santos Halts the Rise of Stipe Miocic

On Saturday at UFC on Fox 13, the giants will once again roam the Octagon.

Even as the top of the fight company's 265-pound division remains in limbo while awaiting the return of champion Cain Velasquez, it's hard not to notice the UFC heavyweight ranks picking up a little steam.

This weekend, three fights will be on tap in the organization's heaviest weight class, including a main event between Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic that (maybe, possibly) has title implications. Also on hand will be the likes of Alistair Overeem, Matt Mitrione, Stefan Struve and Gabriel Gonzaga.

That's not too shabby, considering all we have to do to watch is sit back, grab the remote and locate the Fox network on our television dials.

Hopefully, the six heavyweights listed above will pick up the action where guys like Todd Duffee and Travis Browne left off last week at UFC 181. If not, then perhaps a lightweight tiff between Rafael dos Anjos and Nate Diaz will do the trick.

Whenever the big men are involved, bold statements will be made. Here, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden do their best to predict one of the sport's least predictable divisions.

Prediction: Junior Dos Santos Is Still No. 1—err, No. 2…Maybe No. 3

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Chad 

The expansive and lavishly paid research team here at Bold Predictions informs me that, due to last week’s take on Travis Browne, continuity dictates I tab Dos Santos in Saturday’s main event.

That’s fine; I do feel like this is the former champion’s fight to lose, though his recent 14 months of inactivity are a little disquieting. I was also surprised to learn that JDS is going off as almost a 4-1 favorite over Stipe Miocic, according to Odds Shark. No matter who you think is going to win, this fight seems closer than that to me.

Miocic may bring the momentum—he’s riding a 3-0 win streak—and arguably the better rounded skill set, but I’m going to side with the guy who’s been to the dance before. Dos Santos is a proven A-list heavyweight whose two career losses in the Octagon are both to oft-injured champion Cain Velasquez.

By contrast, Miocic’s last win was over beefed-up light heavyweight Fabio Maldonado, and his two best victories were against Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga. He’s a good fighter and—if we’re lucky—this should turn out to be an entertaining heavyweight scrap, but for now I’ll stick with the Brazilian to prove he’s still in the title conversation alongside Velasquez and Werdum.

Jonathan

I'm a little concerned about the long-term effects of Dos Santos' fights with Velasquez. Over the course of 45 minutes, Velasquez did horrific things to poor Junior, and extended beatings like that have a way of shortening careers.

Miocic, however, is not Velasquez. His Metro PCS commercial most likely will never come. He's a fun action fighter, but there's every reason to believe that Dos Santos will prove way too much for him to handle.

At 30 years old, Dos Santos is in a weird place. His best bet is winning here and getting a shot against interim champion Werdum before Velasquez can come back and claim his spot atop the sport. That's the only way Dos Santos can earn a fourth fight against Velasquez.

Anything else is just running in place.

Prediction: Time off Haunts Nate Diaz

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Jonathan

You can understand why Nate Diaz was tempted to take a stand against the UFC hierarchy. His earning window is short and his fighter pay is light, at least compared to other mainstream athletes. Sometimes— someone else's daddy probably said—a man has to stand up for what he believes in.

Of course, most of those factors are also strong reasons not to enter a blood feud with the UFC brass. Diaz, alone, isn't likely to shake up the establishment enough to create substantive change. And, meanwhile, his one-man labor strike has cost him dearly, as other fighters, even men he's beaten like Donald Cerrone, have leapfrogged him in the UFC's rankings.

Worse still, he fights two foes this weekend—Rafael dos Anjos and ring rust. Diaz has been out of the cage for nearly 13 months. According to statistician Reed Kuhn in his book Fightnomics, that's not a good thing.

“Returning to the Octagon after a yearlong layoff results in a 35 percent win rate," Kuhn writes, "illustrating how difficult it is to take time away from the cage...Regardless of the reason, there appears to be evidence that athletes need to 'stay in fighting shape' in order to remain competitive.”

Kuhn suggests the numbers indicate Diaz is likely to answer a wake-up call. Dos Anjos' fists will be on the other end. That's not my call—that's just science.

Chad

I’m sure it’s just a wacky coincidence that Diaz inherited a tough draw against Dos Anjos for his first fight back after holding out.

That said, RDA would shape up as a stiff test even if Diaz were in the zone and rolling. The Brazilian—who is flying high at 7-1 and coming off a knockout win over former champion Benson Henderson—figures to be better in most facets. Diaz, however, will have considerable height and reach advantages, and you never know when his torrid, aggressive pace is just going to be too much for his opponent.

But, if I had to guess (and I do), will the time off hurt him? Maybe. But probably not as badly as Dos Anjos will.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem Gets off the Schneid, for the Moment

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Chad

By now, we know Alistair Overeem is probably never going to be the guy we expected him to be. When he rode into the Octagon back in 2011 on a 10-0-1 run that had established him as perhaps the heavyweight division’s most terrifying striker, it seemed like it was championship or bust for Overeem.

But now with a 1-3 record dating back to Feb. 2013, I’m not even sure what’s at stake for him when he meets up with Stefan Struve this weekend. If the UFC was going to cut him, it likely would have done that already, and in this world of suddenly increased competition from Bellator MMA, it seems likely UFC brass are just holding him so someone else doesn’t snap him up.

Luckily for Overeem, Struve is in just as precarious a position. He’s returning after nearly two years off due to a scary heart condition. His originally scheduled return bout against Matt Mitrione at UFC 175 had to be canceled after Struve reportedly passed out backstage, according to Damon Martin of Fox Sports.

So, yeah, not good. If have to choose between two heavyweights who have both fallen on hard times and badly need wins, I guess I’ll take the guy who is better in the two men’s shared skill set. In this fight, that’s striking, and that’s Overeem.

He beats Struve on Saturday, though his future UFC prospects remain fairly gloomy.

Jonathan

If nothing else, old man Dundas forced me to look up the word "schneid." It means, basically, a losing streak. And Overeem sure has been on one!

Armed with that knowledge, I can't help but agree. It's about time this big Dutch train gets turned around—and Struve is the perfect opponent to help launch a comeback.

Overeem, despite his struggles, is still terrifying, especially early in the fight. I fully expect him to retire Struve on Saturday and begin a march back toward UFC glory. Or his next loss. Either way, the schneid ends here.

Prediction: Having Three Heavyweight Fights Feels Just Right

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Jonathan

People online tend to snicker when it's time for two UFC heavyweights to hit the cage. And, though I don't support this impulse, I do understand it. After all, on occasion the plus-sized fighters aren't just bulky—they are downright ponderous. Even slovenly.

At the same time, there's something pretty special about two big men colliding at full force, man boobs jiggling and padded guts quivering. That's because, no matter their appearance, we all know that weight classes were created for a reason. These behemoths, even though they don't always move with the grace of their lightweight counterparts, are the true kings of the cage.

I'm excited about seeing three heavyweight fights on the Fox main card. One of them, granted, will likely end up being a total drag. That's just playing the odds. But I'll bet two of the three end in spectacular fashion. That's just how heavyweights do. How do you do, Chad?

Chad

Well, for starters, I don’t share quite as much enthusiasm for the big fellas as you do...do...do.

Is there an echo in here?

Look, the UFC heavyweight division is historically terrible, and with the current owner of its long-cursed title belt being once again on the shelf due to injury, I assume 2015 won’t be the year that undoes all that lackluster precedent.

But I’m feeling charitable this week, after watching Travis Browne and Todd Duffee do it up at UFC 181. Perhaps this weekend’s heavyweight trifecta won’t be that bad.

Junior dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic could be that rarest thing in the 265-pound division—an entertaining five-round slugfest that doesn’t end with two guys just standing there breathing at each other. Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve has us all on High Bungalow Alert, and Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Matt Mitrione? Shoot, anything could happen in that bad boy.

So, fine, bring on the heavy hitters. Just, you know, let's not get too hyped about it. Last thing I want to see is a disappointed Snowden.