5 Things England Must Do to Stand a Chance of Winning Cricket World Cup
As England battle to come back from a 3-1 deficit to avoid a third straight one-day international series defeat in Sri Lanka—which would be their sixth series defeat in their last seven—few are getting excited about England's World Cup hopes.
Perhaps the most infuriating thing about this England side is that there is no shortage of talent, and in fits and starts a number of players have displayed international pedigree with fine performances.
Consistency, however, remains the preserve of competing nations, and outstanding performances from individuals wearing England colours have been all too rare.
Selection has been hotly debated among media and fans alike, largely focusing around the continued selection of captain Alastair Cook. With their first World Cup fixture a little over two months away, few would argue that England have discovered the winning formula.
From selection at the top of the order to the make-up or the bowling attack, here we take a look at five things England must do to stand a chance of winning the World Cup.
The only criteria for each slide is that it must be a realistic option within the confines of the provisional 30-man squad announced by England earlier this week on the ECB website, ruling out roles for the likes of Jonathan Trott and, further into the realms of fantasy, Kevin Pietersen.
1. Open with Alex Hales and Moeen Ali
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It is unfortunate that Alex Hales' first-ball duck in the fourth ODI robbed England fans of an extended glimpse of the opening partnership that many have been calling for since Moeen Ali's stunning 72-ball century in the first ODI.
The absence of captain Alastair Cook due to a one-game suspension earned for slow over rates enabled Moeen and Hales to stride out together at the start of the innings, an opportunity selectors had thus far deprived them of.
The failure of Hales, coupled with the sparkling innings played by James Taylor at No. 3, led to the former once again being stood down for the fifth ODI of the series when Cook was available.
To stand a chance of winning the World Cup, England cannot afford to have Cook gradually building an innings at one end from the first ball.
In the first ODI, and with 318 the target, Cook played out a maiden at the start of the innings. When he was dismissed in the seventh over for 10, he had faced 17 balls and not hit a boundary. Moeen was 40 not out from 20 balls and had thrashed eight fours already.
In a game that England lost by 25 runs, Cook's slow start was ultimately costly, albeit not the only reason England lost as the middle order also floundered badly.
Hales has shown stunning T20 form that has taken him to third in the international rankings, according to the ICC.
Though he has yet to translate this to the ODI arena in the six games he has played at this level, he has the tools to lead a dual assault alongside Moeen from the first over that could transform England's fortunes.
Hales' strike rate in List A games is 98.5, marginally inferior to Moeen's 101.95 but far superior to Cook's 79.12. Since the skipper is certain to play at least from the outset of the World Cup, he should drop down to No. 3 and allow Hales and Moeen to open the batting.
"If ECB were serious about the WC, they'd open with Hales and Magic Moeen but they aren't, so they will keep Cook at the top of the order.
— Subash Jayaraman (@thecricketcouch) November 26, 2014"
Given the high-risk approach employed by this pair means their partnership might be short-lived, Cook may well be at the crease early on, but with momentum already established and opposition bowlers prevented from settling into any kind of rhythm.
This scenario might better suit his ability to build an innings, with a brisk start easing pressure to score more quickly than his natural game allows, and this in turn could spark a return to the sort of form that has, after all, brought him five ODI hundreds.
2. Be Prepared to Drop Big Name Players, Including Alastair Cook
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As noted by BBC Sport following the squad announcement, Cook seems certain to captain England against Australia in their first World Cup game.
This is despite the loss of form that has seen him average 29.37 in 17 ODIs this calendar year, prior to the fifth ODI with Sri Lanka, with a top score of 56, as per ESPN Cricinfo.
Should things continue in this vein, there must be a point when England and Cook accept that his stature is no longer enough to justify his place in the team. The same goes for vice-captain Eoin Morgan, another player of great reputation but dubious form.
Morgan has endured a lean spell following a productive tour of Australia in January, with a dismal run in which he failed to pass 40 in 14 matches and averaged just 15.92.
Morgan did at least issue a reminder of his sublime talent this summer with a majestic 71 from 31 balls captaining England in the sole T20 against India in September.
Furthermore, England fans will hope that the fourth ODI against Sri Lanka on Sunday represents the start of Morgan's return to form, having seen him end his dreadful run without a fifty in style to make 62 from 47 balls. He will need to push on from here to cement his place for the World Cup.
Regardless of any nascent Morgan resurgence, it is hard to shake the notion that both captain Cook and his deputy are untouchable.
Meanwhile, team-mates around them have been forced to kick their heels on the sidelines or have been dropped from the squad entirely, as was the case with Ravi Bopara whose omission from the squad to face India in the summer raised eyebrows.
"There's a suggestion there is no Ravi Bopara in the England ODI squad soon to be announced….that would be a surprise
— Paul Newman (@Paul_NewmanDM) August 18, 2014"
James Tredwell was dropped after one below par performance in the second ODI in Sri Lanka, despite possessing the best economy rate of any England bowler sending down more than five overs in the first ODI.
Previously, he had proven more economical than anyone in England's current squad in series against Sri Lanka and against India this summer, as recorded on ESPN Cricinfo.
Alex Hales was displaced at the top of the order after just four games versus India this summer, while Michael Carberry before him was made a scapegoat for England's humiliating 99 all out against Sri Lanka in the second ODI of the summer, his only chance after being recalled to the side.
Put simply, England seem loath to drop some of the bigger-name players regardless of form over a significant period of time, while other less stellar names are afforded far less patience.
James Taylor showed in the third ODI that there is plenty of talent waiting in the wings who have flaunted their credentials with outstanding form in domestic limited overs competitions this year.
Indeed, the provisional 30-man World Cup squad contains other strong performers from the county circuit untried at this level, such as James Vince and Jason Roy, the latter of whom made his T20 international debut this summer.
England must be prepared to drop the likes of Cook and Morgan should they continue to toil in the lead up to, or the early stages of, the World Cup. They cannot afford to carry out of form players through a World Cup if they are to stand any chance of winning it.
3. Keep James Anderson and Stuart Broad Fit
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While a number of English batsman have played the odd innings of substance—most notably Moeen but also Taylor, Bopara, Joe Root and Jos Buttler—the struggles of England's seam bowlers for the most part has served to emphasise the importance of the absent James Anderson and Stuart Broad.
If England are to stand any chance of winning the world cup, they will need to keep their senior pace duo fit and firing in Australia.
"So I make England's WC bowling attack: 1) Please let Anderson be fit 2) And Broad 3) Moeen Ali 4) A few overs from Bopara 5) erm....
— ThatCricketBlog (@ThatCricketBlog) December 7, 2014"
James Anderson is England's leading wicket taker in ODIs with 257 wickets, and Broad ranks joint third on that list with Andrew Flintoff, as both men have claimed 168 scalps with the white ball.
Both seamers average under 30, with Broad's 28.37 marginally superior to Anderson's 29.10, while Anderson possesses the more miserly economy rate, going for 4.94 runs per over compared with Broad's 5.22.
Statistics on ESPN Cricinfo show that since the start of the English summer only Chris Jordan and Chris Woakes have shown they might belong in this class, with 19 wickets at an average of 24.52 and 17 wickets at 25.17, respectively.
Jordan has, however, shown a worrying tendency to lose his radar, and the 5.61 runs conceded per over reflect a degree of inconsistency in his line and length.
Woakes has been even more expensive, disappearing at 6.02 per over, and his impressive average is largely down to one standout performance amid some middling ones. Before his excellent 6/47 in the fifth ODI, he averaged 34.63 for his 11 wickets over the last three series.
Harry Gurney offers little at this level right now, other than the variation of being a left-armer with 10 wickets costing 37.2 apiece at 5.56 per over. Steven Finn has leaked 5.67 per over and taken just six wickets in seven games since the start of the English summer at an average of 48.5—belying his reputation as a strike bowler.
Ben Stokes has been worse still, taking four wickets at a costly 62.75 each while disappearing around the park to the tune of 7.38 runs per over, and his record on this tour alone fails to even match these low standards.
The absence of England's first-choice new ball pairing on this tour has so far laid bare what everyone already knew: England cannot field a bowling unit capable of regularly bowling out the strongest competition or sufficiently keeping the runs down without both Anderson and Broad.
It is imperative that both are fit and at their best for England to stand any sort of chance of going the distance when the world's best descend upon Australia and New Zealand in February.
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4. Persevere with Ben Stokes
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The struggles of Ben Stokes in Sri Lanka have led many to believe that his World Cup chances are slipping away, with his bowling more expensive than anyone and his batting continuing to misfire.
The tour averages on ESPN Cricinfo show he has been wicketless, has gone for 10.62 per over and his two innings with the bat have brought him just 22 runs.
This is on the back of a year when he has been dismissed seven times in single figures with three ducks and passed 50 just once in 14 ODIs, averaging a measly 16.25 as per ESPN Cricinfo.
His uncharacteristically scratchy 16 from 27 balls, which included no boundaries at the business end of England's failed run chase, summed up his current malaise.
As a result of his failings, he has been in and out of the side, playing in the first, third and fourth ODIs and missing out for the second and fifth games of the series. It is difficult to justify his inclusion in the squad on merit right now.
However, with the World Cup in Australia, where Stokes excelled in the last Ashes with bat and ball, as well as New Zealand, he should be persevered with.
The faster, bouncier pitches Down Under will suit his natural bowling length, and he will appreciate the ball coming onto the bat in contrast to the slow Sri Lankan tracks on which he has struggled.
Michael Vaughan made a case for Stokes' inclusion in his column for The Telegraph, citing his match-winning potential: "I would not like England to arrive at a World Cup in Australia without Ben Stokes. If he gets his mentality right and the coaches keep pumping him up then I believe England have a cricketer who could be a match winner at the World Cup."
He's showed this in county cricket's showpiece 50-over final at Lord's for Durham, with a highly effective spell of 2/25 from nine overs before seeing Durham home from a precarious position of 86/5 in pursuit of 166 with a composed 38 not out.
With England warming up for the World Cup with a tri-series in Australia, Stokes should be given the chance to rediscover his mojo—especially with the first game taking place in Sydney, where he took 6/99 in a Test, and the fourth game at Perth, where he made a fine maiden Test hundred.
If England's coaching team can help Stokes rediscover his form in conditions where he has previously thrived, they will have a truly potent weapon on their hands who can take the attack to anyone with bat and ball. His obvious talent justifies the risk posed by his lack of form.
5. Bring Adil Rashid out of the International Wilderness
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Adil Rashid's career has been a curious one, and he has had to put his international ambitions on hold since making five ineffective appearances in both the ODI and T20 formats as a much-hyped 21-year-old back in 2009.
He has struggled to perfect the difficult art of leg-spin consistently since bursting onto the scene, and his ESPN Cricinfo profile reflects upon his loss of form and confidence after his international bow in 2009 and again across the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
In the latter season, his profile notes that "from 10 Championship matches in 2012 he totalled only 16 wickets and 129 runs and his discontent was apparent."
Rashid has bounced back from seasons of underachievement, and his increased maturity was evident in an exceptional summer of 50-over cricket this year, suggesting he could be ready to resume his international career at an opportune moment with the World Cup looming.
His 21 wickets in nine games at an average of 19.47 were surpassed by only Kiwi spinner Jeetan Patel, and his place in the provisional 30-man World Cup squad suggests England selectors were suitably impressed.
Still, few expect him to make the squad, and England missed a trick by not giving him a chance to translate his domestic form to the international stage in Sri Lanka.
Moeen is more than capable of bowling 10 overs of spin without taking up a bowler's spot, and James Tredwell has earned his stripes as first choice spinner in the ODI side.
Even so, England's approach of filling No. 8 through to No. 10 on the scorecard with four frontline seamers or three plus Tredwell has appeared unimaginative and ill-suited to conditions in Sri Lanka.
Rashid should be seen as a valid alternative to Stokes, Woakes or Jordan at No. 8, giving England the option of playing three slow bowlers alongside Anderson and Broad, with Moeen and Tredwell making up the spin trio. Ravi Bopara is effective enough to offer an extra seam option as a sixth bowler if required.
"It's time to throw Adil Rashid back into the England ODI mix ahead of next year's World Cup, writes @TheCricketGeek http://t.co/bkXxB1Mu4f
— AllOutCricket (@AllOutCricket) September 13, 2014"
Leg-spinner Rashid can offer variety to an attack in which Moeen, Tredwell and Root all offer conventional finger-spin, and he is a far more experienced and savvy cricketer than the youngster who last featured on the international scene.
He might be seen as too much of a risk at this late stage due to his lack of ODI experience, but a number of back-up seamers have failed to make an unarguable case for inclusion in the squad in Sri Lanka. Rashid could prove an inspired pick to give England the extra dimension they surely need to stand a chance of winning the World Cup.
All statistics and scorecards taken from ESPN Cricinfo unless stated otherwise.
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