Texas Football: 5 Bold Predictions for the Longhorns' Bowl Game
Texas has drawn Arkansas in this year's Texas Bowl, hoping to end its season on a high note after being shellacked on Thanksgiving.
Charlie Strong's team looked awful in its 48-10 loss to TCU, turning the ball over five times to put the defense in an impossible position. The good news is this entire team now has a month to rediscover the magic it found during its recent three-game winning streak.
Most importantly, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes gets time to reset, which will allow him and one of the nation's best defenses to come away with the close victory.
Texas Will Hold the Razorbacks Under 200 Rushing Yards
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The Razorbacks run the ball as well as anyone in the country, averaging over 220 yards per game and five yards a carry on the season. Texas will do everything it can to slow that down and force the game into the hands of shaky quarterback Brandon Allen.
Texas' strong suit this season has been defending the pass, where it ranks fifth in the nation in yards per attempt, per cfbstats.com. In a conference with four teams that threw the ball over 450 times, that's a great accomplishment.
But the Horns have been pretty salty against the run as well, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry and leading the league in goal-line stops, according to ESPN.com's Max Olson. With five All-Big 12 performers, this defense can plain get stops.
That's bad news for this Arkansas offense that is about as one-dimensional as it gets. The Razorbacks were held under 200 rushing yards in all six of their losses this season, winning only one game in which they attempted more than 25 passes.
Charlie Strong gets three weeks to figure out how to make sure it's the latter situation that pans out for his team. There should be little doubt he will get his way.
Armanti Foreman Will Be the Offense's X-Factor
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In six quarters since Jaxon Shipley went down at Oklahoma State, Armanti Foreman has six catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns.
With the way Arkansas defends the run, his all-around ability will be crucial to this Longhorn offense.
Foreman hasn't seen much action this season, but he has sure flashed when he's gotten his chances. He's averaging almost 20 yards per touch and has proven he can do it in a variety of ways. The freshman has hauled in a 45-yard touchdown over his shoulder, taken a screen 73 yards to the house and has even ripped off a 30-yard rush.
He is a special talent, and one the Longhorns will need to get some explosive plays. The Razorbacks allow just 3.6 yards per carry, meaning Texas has to find a way to consistently move the ball through the air other than force-feeding John Harris.
Foreman provides that option and the ability to move the ball in a variety of ways. The way he's been playing of late, Texas has no choice but to keep giving him touches even with Shipley likely to return, per the Austin American-Statesman's Ryan Autullo.
Longhorns Will Force Multiple Turnovers
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Though he's been a much better decision-maker this season, Brandon Allen has been prone to mistakes when he's asked to win the game with his arm. When Texas takes away his running game, he's going to cough the ball up.
As previously mentioned, the Razorbacks are 1-6 when Allen throws the ball more than 25 times. In those games, Allen's impressive 18-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio became 9-4, and his accuracy dipped well below 60 percent.
With Malcom Brown and Hassan Ridgeway getting pressure in his face, those numbers will worsen in Houston.
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Tyrone Swoopes Will Bounce Back
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Thanks to over a month to get himself right, Tyrone Swoopes will bounce back against the Razorbacks and deliver one of his better games of the season.
Yes, Swoopes was all kinds of awful against TCU. It's never acceptable for a quarterback to turn the ball over five times, and the staff has every reason to question him after that performance.
But does that make Swoopes a lost cause? Absolutely not.
In 2004, the year before he became the best player in college football, Vince Young threw for 19 yards and two picks on nine attempts in a game against Missouri. Colt McCoy tossed four picks in a 41-21 loss to unranked Kansas State, per Sports-Reference.com. These things happen.
As for Swoopes, he's shown an ability to bounce back from his worst showings. He's answered a 16-of-34, two-interception performance against Baylor with back-to-back 300-yard outings, and he completed over 70 percent of his passes against Oklahoma State right after failing to complete even 40 percent the previous week.
As Strong said on Monday, per Jeff Howe of Horns247, he needs to get back to managing the game. "Tyrone just needs to manage the offense and not turn over the football," the head coach said. "Just make sure that he himself continues to just get better."
Arkansas doesn't get a ton of pressure, nor does it cover particularly well, leaving the door wide open for Swoopes to have an efficient day throwing the ball.
Texas Wins 27-24
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Behind a ticked-off defense and a quarterback with settled nerves, Texas will have just enough to edge its former rival in the Texas Bowl.
The Longhorns are right up there with the Alabama and Mississippi State defenses that gave the Razorbacks fits in losses this season. They fly to the football, finish tackles, get pressure and cover as well as you can ask.
As for the offense, Shawn Watson and Joe Wickline have had a lot of time to build this offense back up. With everyone healthy, the run blocking will improve while Swoopes gets his chains-mover back in Shipley.
Barring another implosion, the Horns have enough to win this one close.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of TexasSports.com.
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