UFC on Fox 13: Complete Guide to Dos Santos vs. Miocic Full Fight Card
False starts, new beginnings and redemption stories. Not every UFC card can claim the kinds of easy narratives afforded by the veterans, ex-champions and misfit toys of the sport. But UFC on Fox 13 can, and it goes down Saturday in Phoenix.
Is it an awesome card? Nah. Are there big immediate title implications up and down the slate? Probably not. But does it have some really interesting storylines? Yes. That is what it has.
At the top of the card, former heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos will try to demonstrate that his year away from UFC competition (and two defeats to Cain Velasquez) are in the rearview mirror when he faces off with would-be challenger Stipe Miocic.
Other favorites and lightning rods? How about Nate Diaz, Alistair Overeem, Stefan Struve and Joe Riggs? Oh, and don't forget Ben Saunders, Jamie Varner, Joe Ellenberger and Henry Cejudo.
This card is packed with personal drama. Maybe that's something you're interested in. If so, read on for information capsules, predictions and viewing coordinates for each and every bout on the UFC on Fox 13 card.
Anthony Birchak vs. Ian Entwhistle
1 of 13Division: Bantamweight
Records: Ian Entwhistle (8-2), Anthony Birchak (11-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Birchak has had a couple of setbacks lately. First, the 28-year-old prospect was set to kick off an intriguing UFC run at a little event we called UFC 177, against an opponent who goes by the name of Joe Soto. You know how that went.
Then, as if that wasn't enough, the dude came home from that non-fight to find his house robbed. Not what you want in a weekend.
Here's hoping the former MFC champ gets to the cage this time because he's talented and fun to watch. (Doubters should check that video of his excellent scrap with UFC vet Ryan Benoit.) The former college wrestler is aggressive in all phases and has nine stoppage wins to his name.
Entwhistle, who is dropping to bantamweight for this fight, is a game competitor but mostly a grappling specialist. On his official UFC profile page, he lists the heel hook as his favorite grappling and striking technique. That's pretty funny, because it's true.
Prediction: Birchak, unanimous decision
Henry Cejudo vs. Dustin Kimura
2 of 13
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Henry Cejudo (6-0), Dustin Kimura (11-2)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Cejudo has made a fool of himself, the UFC and his supporters, and he's done so more than once. A chronic inability to not only make weight but give the impression he cares about MMA has plagued his young career in the sport and undermined his world-class talent.
Hopefully, a move up to bantamweight will allow the Olympic gold-medal wrestler to get back to business inside the fence. It better, for his sake. And it won't be a cakewalk against a good submission grappler in Kimura. While Kimura has struggled with inconsistency in the cage, I'll take that over inconsistency outside of it. Until further notice, the benefit of the doubt is not on Cejudo's side. Sound the upset alarms.
Prediction: Kimura, unanimous decision
David Michaud vs. Garett Whiteley
3 of 13
Division: Lightweight
Records: David Michaud (7-1), Garett Whiteley (7-2)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Elias who? If we're going to have a legitimate conversation about the best hair in the UFC, we need to include David Michaud in that mix. Otherwise, I shall be forced not to recognize your decision. Don't embarrass us both in that fashion.
Aside from the hair, which I discussed in the previous paragraph, I don't see this fight being overly memorable. Whiteley is a striker on the precipice of his dreaded third straight loss. Michaud dropped his Octagon debut to the immortal Jiangling Li. Michaud will get this fight to the mat and stay busy with submission attempts, which he won't actually get but will hand him the W.
Prediction: Michaud, unanimous decision
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Joe Ellenberger vs. Bryan Barberena
4 of 13Division: Lightweight
Records: Joe Ellenberger (15-1), Bryan Barberena (9-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Most hardcore fans are familiar with Ellenberger's battle with a rare blood disease, as well as the numerous false starts along the way to his UFC debut.
When it finally happened in June, Joe (brother of UFC welterweight Jake Ellenberger) recovered from an early near-knockout to best James Moontasri by split decision.
Joe isn't as electric as his brother, relying more on wrestling than a big curtain-closing strike. But it's working for him, as evidenced by his record.
Barberena, Ellenberger's original opponent for that debut fight, likes to go in there and incite a brawl, throwing wild punches and knees and pumping up the crowd. Ellenberger is what you call a trained professional and will either avoid Barberena's last-call antics or simply smother them in the canvas.
Prediction: Ellenberger, unanimous decision
Derek Brunson vs. Ed Herman
5 of 13
Division: Middleweight
Records: Derek Brunson (12-3), Ed Herman (22-10)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Ed "Short Fuse" Herman has been solid rock as a UFC journeyman for nigh on nine years now. At 34 years old, he's no spring chicken for an athlete anymore. But just when you think Herman is out, he pulls you back in.
It wasn't all that impressive when he ground out a flat Rafael Natal at UFC Fight Night 40. He may not be able to pull off a second straight upset when he steps in with Brunson, whose game is similar to Herman's—lots of clinching, lots of toughness, with basic but earnest striking—but better, thanks to a wrestling, size and strength edge.
With respect to Short Fuse, this won't be his day.
Prediction: Brunson, unanimous decision
Jamie Varner vs. Drew Dober
6 of 13
Division: Lightweight
Records: Jamie Varner (21-10-1), Drew Dober (14-6)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Varner lost the fight but won plenty of fans in May. During a fight with James Krause, he broke his ankle in a bad way but soldiered on until the UFC wouldn't let him soldier on anymore.
A doctor stopped the fight after the first round, and Varner was ultimately diagnosed with a fracture and torn ligaments. So it's no small thing that he's back in the cage seven months later.
Dober was game but unsuccessful in his first two bouts, basically serving as a demonstration bag for Nick Hein earlier this year. To be honest, it feels like the UFC is giving Varner, who has lost three straight and four of five, a winnable fight. So fair enough—I'll bite.
Decision: Varner, unanimous decision
Joe Riggs vs. Ben Saunders
7 of 13
Division: Welterweight
Records: Ben Saunders (17-6-2), Joe Riggs (40-14)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
If you thought Varner's comeback was impressive, you should see Joe Riggs. It hasn't even been five months since Riggs accidentally shot himself in the thigh and nearly died.
His return makes for a comeback on top of a comeback; the last time Riggs fought in the UFC, the year was 2006, and he lost by first-round knockout to Diego Sanchez.
And it doesn't even end there. Saunders has made a good career for himself over the years with his aggressive, almost reckless brand of muay thai. But his jiu-jitsu has improved markedly, as evidenced by the fact that he pulled off the UFC's first omoplata submission in his return to the promotion earlier this year after four years away.
The 6'3" Saunders will have a three-inch height advantage on Riggs and knows how to use all of his ranginess to the detriment of his opponents. Riggs is obviously tough, but he won't be able to get inside on Killa B.
Prediction: Saunders, TKO, Rd. 2
Claudia Gadelha vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
8 of 13
Division: Women's strawweight
Records: Claudia Gadelha (12-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (7-0)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Gadelha opted out of The Ultimate Fighter 20. If she hadn't, it might have made for some interesting TV, because she has a little rivalry with a certain Carla Esparza, who is only the top-rated fighter in the cast.
And Gadelha can back it up. One of the first two women to fight in the Octagon at strawweight, she trains with Nova Uniao and is formidable in every phase.
Jedrzejczyk, for whom eight of the 11 letters in her name are consonants, has impressed in her own right. But this should be Gadelha's day as she moves toward a title confrontation she has earned.
Prediction: Gadelha, submission, Rd. 2
John Moraga vs. Willie Gates
9 of 13
Division: Flyweight
Records: John Moraga (15-3), Willie Gates (11-4)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Good on Gates for jumping from Tachi Palace Fights to the UFC. Bad on him for drawing Moraga in his debut.
Moraga should handle Gates, who is dangerous but not as technical as his opponent. Moraga should outpoint him, use better wrestling and, sooner rather than later, bring that trademark power to bear on an overmatched adversary.
Prediction: Moraga, KO, Rd. 1
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Matt Mitrione
10 of 13
Division: Heavyweight
Records: Gabriel Gonzaga (16-8), Matt Mitrione (8-3)
See it on: Fox
In the first fight of the main event, give it up for Gonzaga—that lumberer of lumberers, that beater of Mirko Cro Cop and Shawn Jordan. It's hard to believe the lead-fisted jiu-jitsu ace is only 35 years old. I'd have guessed, I don't know, 60.
Matt Mitrione is like a little Gonzaga, minus the jiu-jitsu skills and plus some power. But did you know he's 36? I'd have guessed, I don't know, 28.
Give me the somehow inexplicably younger Gonzaga for the upset in this one, thanks to some superior grappling skills.
Prediction: Gonzaga, unanimous decision
Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve
11 of 13
Division: Heavyweight
Records: Alistair Overeem (37-14), Stefan Struve (25-6)
See it on: Fox
Now we're talking.
I'm going back and forth on this one. Both men have stopping power, particularly Overeem. The difference here may be Struve's grappling. He uses his 7'0" frame more effectively on the ground than he does on the feet, even if his general preference is for standing brawls.
He doesn't want one of those with Overeem, who has all sorts of nasty kickboxing and is in desperate need of a win. The crowd will be pulling for Struve, who is making his return from a career-threatening heart condition. But I think Struve will get caught up in the moment and get caught by the still dangerous Overeem. The 7-footer will go out on his shield in a Fight of the Night candidate.
Prediction: Overeem, TKO, Rd. 2
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz
12 of 13
Division: Lightweight
Records: Nate Diaz (17-9), Rafael dos Anjos (22-7)
See it on: Fox
Who doesn't love Nate Diaz?
Dos Anjos doesn't have nearly the name or the fanbase of his opponent. But you know what he does have? Really good fighting skills. Unless your name is Khabib Nurmagomedov, you probably don't have a stronger claim right now to the next lightweight title shot.
Diaz will not be able to intimidate Dos Anjos with that stalk-you-down, spread-your-arms boxing game. In fact, there's a good chance Dos Anjos will blast right through such a thing. Diaz is too tough to tap or fall, but he'll be worse for wear when this one is over.
Prediction: Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic
13 of 13
Division: Heavyweight
Records: Junior dos Santos (16-3), Stipe Miocic (12-1)
See it on: Fox
Dos Santos makes his first walk to the cage in more than a year, and he'll be looking to rinse away the taste of those two bad losses to Velasquez.
Can Miocic hang with him? Sure, he can. He's a sharp, strong boxer with solid wrestling. But I'm not sure it's going to be enough against a beast like JDS when a beast like JDS is on a mission.
Dos Santos will use his heavy jab, defend any and all takedowns, get inside if he wants to and bring big hooks and (if fans are lucky) kicks to the party. He won't be mucking around, and a very good fighter in Miocic will help remind us how great Junior really is.
Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff in this vein, follow Scott on Twitter.
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