UFC on Fox 13 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC returns with a doubleheader this week that will crown a champion and potentially put a heavyweight in the title picture. In all, it should be a great weekend.
The second event of the doubleheader is UFC on Fox 13, which boasts a major heavyweight scrap in the main event between Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic. The main card also boasts names like Nate Diaz and Alistair Overeem, but the prelims are must-see as well.
UFC 181 saw a solid 4-2 on my predictions, which kept my overall record strong. A continued strong showing is hopeful here, as we continue to close out 2014.
Here are the preliminary card predictions for UFC on Fox this Saturday.
2014 Riley's Record: 167-100
Last Event: UFC 181 (4-2)
Anthony Birchak vs. Ian Entwistle
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Kicking off the prelims, we have a bout in the bantamweight division, as England's Ian Entwistle looks to score his first UFC win against debuting Arizonian Anthony Birchak.
Entwistle is a submission grappler who has looked to round out his striking game in Thailand. However, while improving his striking, he is still a mat technician with good physical strength and solid takedowns.
His UFC debut did not go as planned, as he was stopped via ground-and-pound by Dan Hooker. It was a fight that actually almost saw Entwistle earn a stoppage himself, but his fortunes got turned in the form of the vicious stoppage loss.
As for Birchak, he is the former MFC bantamweight champion and a top 135-pound prospect upon entry to the UFC. Though well-rounded, he prefers wrestling and top control, where he can implement heavy strikes and underrated submissions.
With wins over UFC employees Ryan Benoit and Roman Salazar, Birchak has shown he can hang with tough competition. His experience and strength of schedule are hard to pick against here, as he shows his overall superiority en route to a stoppage win.
Prediction: Birchak def. Entwistle via TKO
Henry Cejudo vs. Dustin Kimura
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Moving forward, we stay in the bantamweight division, as former U.S. Olympian Henry Cejudo looks to impress the world in his UFC debut opposite scrappy Hawaiian Dustin Kimura.
Cejudo, a decorated American wrestler of high caliber, makes his awaited UFC debut after failed attempts due to weight issues. He moves up to 135, as 125 was simply too hard for him to master consistently.
Obviously, wrestling is his strong point, as he achieves takedowns frequently and can hold guys on the mat. He has only been a pro since 2013, and in that time, he has run a perfect 6-0 record.
He takes on a fighter in Kimura who has been largely inconsistent in his UFC run. The submission grappler has shown signs of brilliance in unison with signs of weakness.
Despite hiccups against Mitch Gagnon and George Roop, which saw Kimura struggle, the Hawaiian has earned submissions of both Chico Camus and Jon delos Reyes. Those submissions show that Kimura is a handful on the ground and could challenge Cejudo if the fight ends up there.
Though Kimura can definitely catch Cejudo in something crazy on the ground, as he has a good guard, Cejudo may scout that and try to make this a clinching match. Expect a grinding performance of Cejudo, who gets himself out of some sticky situations en route to a competitive decision.
Prediction: Cejudo def. Kimura via decision
David Michaud vs. Garett Whiteley
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Capping off the Fight Pass portion of the prelims are the lightweights, as David Michaud and Garett Whiteley likely compete for their jobs against each other.
Michaud is a wrestler and grappler who makes the drop from welterweight after a late-notice bout in his debut against Jianliang Li. Despite showing some signs of talent and making it close against his Chinese counterpart, the South Dakota resident dropped a split decision, which stripped him of his perfect record.
Previous to his UFC debut, Michaud had a respectable resume in the regional circuit. With submission wins over Carey Vanier and Ian Stonehouse, it's easy to see why Michaud earned the call to the big show.
As for Whiteley, the Chris Lytle disciple has struggled in his two-fight UFC stint. A boxer by trade, he has even been outgunned on the feet, which is apparently his strong suit.
He debuted opposite Alan Patrick, who steamrolled over the Indiana native. He followed that up by a lackluster showing against Vinc Pichel, which had most thinking that would be it for Whiteley's time in the UFC.
Both fighters know their jobs are likely on the line, so expect a dogfight here. When it's all said and done, Michaud's ground game will be the difference-maker, as he earns a convincing decision.
Prediction: Michaud def. Whiteley via decision
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Joe Ellenberger vs. Bryan Barberena
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Kicking things of on Fox Sports 1 will be the lightweights, as tough 155er Joe Ellenberger welcomes Bryan Barberena to the UFC.
Joe, like his brother, Jake, is a wrestler by trade, though he likely isn't as well-rounded as his brother. He is powerful and vicious on top, with great takedowns, heavy ground punches and solid submission skills.
His UFC debut saw him edge James Moontasri in a close bout that could have gone the other way. He will need a more convincing performance this time around to keep people thinking he is as good of a prospect as he was touted to be.
As for Barberena, the MMA Lab rep is well-rounded, with good hands and power on the feet. His grappling will likely be his disadvantage here, as Ellenberger is vastly superior in the wrestling department.
He is 9-2 fighting in the regional scene, so this will be a big step up in competition for Barberena. That said, he has shown good skills and great finishing ability.
This will be a showcase of two guys who are trying to make a name for themselves in a crowded lightweight division. Given that styles make fights, Ellenberger's style just seems to be tailor-made to conquer that of his counterpart.
Prediction: Ellenberger def. Barberena via decision
Derek Brunson vs. Ed Herman
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Next up we have the middleweights, as Derek Brunson and Ed Herman both search for their second straight win.
Brunson is a wrestler with great quickness, strength and athleticism. He is proficient in earning the takedown, which he uses to execute ground-and-pound and eventually a submission.
His UFC career thus far has seen its ups and downs. He has defeated Chris Leben, Brian Houston and Lorenz Larkin while falling to Yoel Romero in brutal fashion after controlling most of the fight.
As for Herman, the longtime UFC vet has proved to be a well-rounded, tough-as-nails competitor. He has good boxing and jiu-jitsu skills, which make him dangerous against anybody.
He has traded wins and losses in his last four bouts. He has earned decisions over Rafael Natal and Trevor Smith while falling hard against Thales Leites and Ronaldo Souza.
If Herman can keep this fight upright, he has a good chance to outproduce Brunson. However, engaging in a war of strength and takedowns will only result in Brunson grinding him out for three rounds.
Prediction: Brunson def. Herman via decision
Jamie Varner vs. Drew Dober
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Moving forward, we head back to the lightweight division, as Jamie Varner and Drew Dober likely compete for their UFC roster spot.
Varner, the former WEC lightweight champion, is a well-rounded veteran who knows a lot of the tricks of the trade. Boxing and wrestling are his strong suits, which means he is comfortable fighting both on the feet and on the ground.
His recent UFC career has been tough, as he has faced a tough gauntlet of top guys. Despite wins over Edson Barboza and Melvin Guillard, Varner is on a three-fight skid against the likes of Gleison Tibau, Abel Trujillo and James Krause.
He meets Dober, who is in search of his first UFC win in three attempts. He lost a late-notice bout against Sean Spencer in his premiere with the company and followed that up with a one-sided loss to Nick Hein.
Dober is a brawler who likes getting into dogfights. That has both been his triumph and downfall as a pro, but it has always made him exciting.
Varner is simply the superior fighter all-around, especially technique-wise. This is a fight to get him back on track, which he should do en route to a finish.
Prediction: Varner def. Dober via TKO
Joe Riggs vs. Ben Saunders
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The next fight is a welterweight bout pitting two UFC and Bellator vets against each other, as Joe "Diesel""Riggs looks to make an impression in his return to the UFC against Ben Saunders.
A veteran dating back to 2001, Riggs has gone through a career transformation. Just as things were looking bleak, Diesel has achieved a career resurgence, winning six straight after a losing streak that many thought would be the end of his career.
Riggs got back to form with the help of Bellator and Fight Master, where he ran the gauntlet and won the only season of said show. In the finale, he utterly dominated Mike Bronzoulis, using a vastly superior ground game to get by him.
Meanwhile, Saunders also used Bellator as a platform to get back into the UFC. A talented striker, he is devastating in the clinch, where he uses brutal elbows and knees to carve up his opponents.
His return to the UFC was also electrifying, as he finished off Chris Heatherly with a gnarly omoplata that earned praise from everyone who witnessed it. The win got his career back on track and will continue to give him what he needs to stay with the UFC.
This is actually a close fight, especially considering the bounce back that Riggs has had to prominence. However, Saunders has great stand-up and serviceable takedown defense, which should lead him to victory here.
Prediction: Saunders def. Riggs via decision
Claudia Gadelha vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
8 of 9
The ladies are up next in what could be a No. 1 contender's bout for the strawweight championship, as Poland's Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Brazil's Claudia Gadelha battle to keep their records undefeated.
Gadelha is a brute of a grappler and a physical specimen, as the Brazilian is a hulk for a 115-pounder. She trains with Nova Uniao, which explains why she has such a savage submission grappling game.
Her last three fights have seen her win impressively against some top ladies in the world of WMMA. She has defeated Invicta atomweight champion Herica Tiburcio, Japanese ace Ayaka Hamasaki and tough-as-nails Tina Lahdemaki in her last three bouts.
She is a force to be reckoned with.
As for Jedrzejczyk, the Polish fighter is a striker who possesses heavy hands and technical muay thai skills. She moves well and is aggressive, which she uses to overwhelm her opponents.
Her UFC debut saw her decimate Juliana Lima in a one-sided decision, but it was her previous bout against Rosi Sexton where she crippled the Brit with a giant one-punch KO that really opened up some eyes to this little powerhouse.
This is going to be an interesting bout. If Jedrzejczyk can fend off Gadelha's takedowns, she will have a field day on the feet. However, Gadelha is proficient at getting people down and will likely do it enough to score a close decision.
Prediction: Gadelha def. Jedrzejczyk via decision
John Moraga vs. Willie Gates
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Capping off the prelims are the flyweights, as former title challenger John Moraga takes on late-notice opponent Willie Gates.
Gates is a well-rounded fighter, owning both powerful striking and good submissions. He is a finisher who has only had three decisions when winning bouts. The rest have come by knockout or submission.
He burst into the limelight in his most recent bout, where he upset Team Alpha Male rep Hector Sandoval at Tachi Palace Fights. He beat him in less than 90 seconds, something that was surprising as much as it was impressive.
He meets Moraga, a six-fight UFC veteran who has been one of the more successful guys with the company. He is a wrestler who has added good hands to his arsenal, becoming a well-rounded fighter.
Despite losses to John Dodson and UFC champion Demetrious Johnson, Moraga has decisioned Dustin Ortiz, knocked out Ulysses Gomez and tapped out Chris Cariaso and Justin Scoggins with guillotine chokes.
Gates is going to be a good flyweight for the UFC, but he gets a high-quality opponent on short notice. That will lead to a stoppage loss, although Gates will prove gritty in the process.
Prediction: Moraga def. Gates via submission
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