Russell Athletic Bowl 2014: Preview, Predictions for Clemson vs. Oklahoma

The Clemson Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners are set to square off in the Russell Athletic Bowl, played on Dec. 29 in Orlando, Florida.

The Tigers (9-3) are coming off a 35-17 win over their in-state rival South Carolina, while the Sooners (8-4) are limping into the postseason after losing to Oklahoma State this past Saturday.

Both of these teams came away with big bowl wins last season—Clemson in the Orange Bowl and Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl—so this matchup should be much anticipated.

Tale of the Tape

Check out this statistical breakdown of the Tigers and Sooners in the interactive graphic above.

The two offenses can score points, but the Sooners have gotten much better production on the ground. The matchup to watch will be the Sooners' run game against Clemson's rush defense.

Clemson's Keys to Victory

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Establish the Run Game

It’s unclear how healthy quarterback Deshaun Watson will be in this game, so running the ball will be a key for this offense to move the ball. News came out after the South Carolina game that Watson had played with a torn ACL, so running the ball may not be an option for him against the Sooners.

The Tigers have been able to run the ball as of late, with Wayne Gallman going over 100 yards in three of Clemson’s last five games.

If Watson doesn't play, running the ball becomes even more important.

Pressure the Quarterback

The Tigers have one of the best defenses in the nation, and a lot of that can be attributed to their ability to get in the backfield. Clemson’s defense has 44 sacks on the season, and it ranks first in the nation with 122.0 tackles for loss.

The Tigers defense has been effective on third down—only letting opponents convert on 28.11 percent of their opportunities—and much of that success has been because of the ability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Oklahoma's Keys to Victory

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Establish the Line of Scrimmage

This will be the most important factor for Oklahoma. Running back Samaje Perine has been tearing up defenses all season, rushing for 1,579 yards and 21 touchdowns this year.

The Sooners will meet one of the toughest run defenses in the entire country, so winning the battle in the trenches could result in an Oklahoma victory.

Mix it Up Defensively Against Clemson's Quarterbacks

Like I mentioned before, Watson may not be able to scramble out of the pocket and make plays with his legs, so mixing it up defensively could confuse the true freshman. South Carolina was able to confuse Watson on a couple of zone coverages, almost forcing a couple of interceptions.

Oklahoma will need to mix up the blitz schemes and make Watson think about where he wants to go with the ball. Without the ability to get out of the pocket, this could work in favor of the Sooners. If Cole Stoudt plays, the Sooners will need to pressure him and force quick decisions from the senior quarterback.

Clemson Players to Watch

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Deshaun Watson

Watson could be playing injured for a second straight game, but he is still a better option than a fully-healthy Stoudt. The senior has struggled with interceptions this year, throwing 10 of them in 266 pass attempts.

It's unclear if Watson will play, as he may have the surgery before the bowl game.

Watson is smart with the football and doesn’t turn it over much. The true freshman has thrown only two interceptions this season, compared to 14 touchdowns.

Clemson’s ability to run the ball against South Carolina kept Watson from having to make a ton of plays through the air. The Tigers ran for 225 yards in that contest, which only forced Watson to throw it 19 times. That kind of success on the ground will be essential to Clemson moving the ball and allowing Watson to manage the game.

Tony Steward

Senior linebacker Stephone Anthony will be suspended for the first half of the bowl game after getting a targeting ejection in the second half of the season finale. That means Steward, another senior, will need to step up in the absence of Anthony.

Steward has 54 total tackles this season and has played a major role in the Tigers’ success against the run.

Oklahoma Players to Watch

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Trevor Knight

The sophomore quarterback has missed the last three games, but according to The Oklahoman, Knight could be cleared to play in the bowl game. That’s good news for the Sooners, because backup Cody Thomas hasn’t been spectacular.

He has thrown four interceptions this season and only two touchdowns, so getting Knight back would be huge for their offense. He has the ability to run the zone read, which Oklahoma will need to utilize to keep Clemson’s defense off balance.

Samaje Perine

Perine has been one of the surprising stars of the college football season, and we should expect a heavy dose of the freshman running back in this game. He has went over 20 carries in a game six times this season, and he has 25 or more rushing attempts in each of the last three games.

He left the Oklahoma State game early with an ankle injury, so it’s unclear how healthy he will be for the bowl game.

What They're Saying

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Oklahoma Head Coach Bob Stoops

On Trevor Knight's injury: Per Jason Kersey of The Oklahoman, Stoops said, "We're hopeful -- I don't want anyone's hopes up, but -- it's looking positive that he may be cleared to play for the bowl game.”

On facing Brent Venables, his former assistant: Per Scott Adamson of orangeandwhite.com, Stoops said, "In coaching you're bound to run into your good buddies now and again but for about four hours we'll have to go against each other. He's done an awesome job (at Clemson)."

Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney

On Watson's injury: Per Adamson, Swinney said, "We might go ahead and do surgery to get a three-week head start on his rehab. He has eight months of rehab ahead and we want him available for skills and drills this summer."

On the new offensive coordinators: Per Adamson, Swinney said, "I'm really excited having the opportunity to promote Tony and Jeff. They've been a huge part of our success the last several years. Tony will call the plays and he'll do a great job of that."

Prediction

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This matchup has the potential to give Clemson’s defense a solid test, but their ability to pressure the quarterback could be the difference.

If that front seven slows down the run like they have all season, it could put Knight into passing situations on third down. That also works in favor of the Tigers, who own the nation’s third-best defense on third down.

The key for Oklahoma will be getting the run game going. If the Sooners can consistently run the ball early in the game, it could wear Clemson’s defense down. The Tigers wore down in the second half of the Georgia game and allowed 328 total rushing yards on the day.

The deciding factor for me will be if Watson plays in this game. The offense looks much better with him in the game. Not counting the Georgia Tech and Louisville games—as Watson played no more than a few drives in those two—the Tigers offense is averaging 42.0 points per game in his last three starts.

If he plays, the Tigers will get the victory. If Watson isn't available, it makes things much more interesting. I think Clemson's defense can keep them in the game, but the outcome will be much closer without No. 4 under center.

Clemson 34, Oklahoma 28