NFL Predictions Week 14: Breaking Down Marquee Games Against the Spread

You can feel the urgency coming from the cities where NFL teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Some of them have built enough of a lead that one loss won't destroy the postseason quest, but no one can afford a defeat in the final month of the season. 

In fact, Week 14 could be renamed Separation Sunday. If you look at the top games on the schedule, the playoff ramifications are as crucial as anything that you will see from college football Saturday.

Arizona and Kansas City are fighting to end losing streaks, while San Diego is trying to keep pace in the AFC West but will have to do it against New England. Buffalo's defense is taking a crack at slowing down Peyton Manning. Seattle's defense looks to keep rolling on the road against Chip Kelly's high-powered offense in Philadelphia. 

Those are just a few of the notable games on the schedule in Week 14. As teams make their final preparations before kickoff Sunday, here are the latest spreads and a closer look at the must-see games. 

Matchup	Spread	Prediction
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals (-3)	Bengals, 27-24
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns	Colts (-3.5)	Colts, 31-20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions	Lions (-10.5)	Lions, 24-14
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars	Texans (-7)	Texans, 20-17
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins	Ravens (-2.5)	Dolphins, 23-16
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings	Vikings (-5)	Jets, 17-13
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints	Saints (-10.5)	Saints, 35-24
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans	Even	Giants, 28-24
St. Louis Rams at Washington	Rams (-3)	Rams, 23-14
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals	Even	Chiefs, 24-17
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos	Broncos (-10)	Broncos, 27-21
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders	49ers (-9.5)	49ers, 27-13
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles	Even	Seahawks, 27-24
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers	Patriots (-4)	Patriots, 31-27
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers	Packers (-13)	Packers, 41-24

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (Even)

If ever there was a game that warranted the title of "both teams need to win and neither can afford to lose," it's Kansas City against Arizona. The Chiefs have lost two straight games, laying an egg against Oakland two weeks ago and letting Denver run all over them in Week 13. 

It took longer than anyone expected, but the Cardinals are finally starting to show their cracks with Drew Stanton as the quarterback. They have scored 35 points in the last three games, while Stanton has thrown five interceptions during that span. 

The Cardinals are hanging on by a thread in the NFC West, with the Seahawks breathing down their neck. The Chiefs have been passed by San Diego for second place in the AFC West and are essentially out of the division title race, barring a collapse by the Broncos, after being swept by Denver. 

Andy Reid's defense has already caught a break, as Arizona running back Andre Ellington is out with a hip injury. Stopping the run has been a problem for the Chiefs all year, as they're allowing 136.4 yards per game. 

For the Cardinals, they have to start sustaining drives. Stanton has been awful overall in the last two games, but third down has been particularly brutal, as noted by Kent Somers of The Arizona Republic.

"Drew Stanton's completion percentage (3 of 15) on third down in the past two games [is 20]," Somers wrote. "Stanton's not the only reason the Cardinals aren't sustaining drives, but there's no question his accuracy needs to improve."

On top of those offensive woes, Arizona's defense will be tested. Alex Smith isn't the most dynamic quarterback in the league, but Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network does wonder why he always gets the blame:

Plus, the Chiefs still have Jamaal Charles to run the ball and create plays in open space in the screen game. The Cardinals defense will show up to play, but there's only so much you can do when the passing game is absent. 

Chiefs 24, Cardinals 17

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (Even)

For the first time since their season-opening win against Green Bay, the Seahawks look like Super Bowl contenders. It's not a coincidence that happened when Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner got healthy, though we will see just how much that defense has improved this week. 

Even though the 49ers and Cardinals are a combined 16-8 this year, no one would say those teams have anything resembling a dynamic offense. Arizona is using a backup quarterback, while San Francisco has been inconsistent all year on offense. 

If you want to be tested as a defense, go up against a Chip Kelly offense. However, don't discount that the Eagles might be overrated coming into the game. Phil Sheridan of ESPN.com made a strong point against Philadelphia in his weekly game prediction:

"

Green Bay. Arizona. San Francisco. The Eagles have had four chances to beat one of the better teams in the NFC. Outside of NFC East rival Dallas, they have lost each time. All of those games were on the road, but only Lambeau Field seemed to be a real difference-maker. Now they get a real test at home, with the defending Super Bowl champions traveling across the country.

"

On top of that, the Eagles are still counting on Mark Sanchez to lead the offense. While the former USC star has performed admirably, with 1,404 yards and eight touchdowns, he's still prone to wilting under the pressure like he did against Green Bay. 

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Imagine what Seattle's defense is going to do against Sanchez if he can't figure out the Packers. 

The Seahawks don't do anything fancy on offense, but their ability to run the ball has proved impossible to stop in recent weeks. Marshawn Lynch has run for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. Russell Wilson is adapting to his weapons on offense, completing 32 of 44 attempts for 447 against Arizona and San Francisco. 

The Eagles have to be aggressive on defense, because their personnel isn't good enough to match up with the Seahawks individually. That will leave a lot of open lanes for Lynch to run through and Wilson to move around in in order to create plays down the field with his arm. 

This will be closer than the Packers debacle three weeks ago, but not enough for the Eagles to prevail against one of the NFC's elite. 

Seahawks 27, Eagles 24

New England Patriots (-4) at San Diego Chargers

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

There's a fascinating dichotomy building up between the New England Patriots at home and the New England Patriots on the road. The home version is 6-0 and averages 35.7 points per game, including 128 points in the last three contests. 

Away from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium, though, the Patriots are a pedestrian 3-3, and the offense averages 27.3 points per game. While that's still a healthy total, it pales in comparison to what happens in Foxboro. 

The other team on the field is also puzzling, though for different reasons. The Chargers hold wins over teams like Seattle and Baltimore, two playoff-caliber groups, but have struggled against other contenders like Kansas City, Denver and Miami. 

One key for the Chargers, per Eric Williams of ESPN, during their recent surge has been the return of Ryan Mathews.

"In three games," Williams wrote, "Mathews has a 100-yard rushing game to his credit and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry since returning to the lineup after a seven-game absence due to an MCL knee sprain."

Rob Carr/Getty Images

That balance has helped San Diego's offense score 61 points the last two weeks. This will be the game that determines how far the Chargers have really come. With respect to St. Louis and Baltimore, they aren't in New England's class. 

If the Chargers want to be a true playoff contender, this is a game they have to win. 

Unfortunately for Mike McCoy's team, it's not going to happen. The Chargers gave up 33 points to Baltimore last week, so how are they going to contain Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Co.?

It's easy to say because he's usually the focal point of New England's offense, but Gronkowski can't be covered one-on-one. According to Pro Football Focus, the star tight end leads all players at the position in yards per route run by a sizable margin:

"

Rob Gronkowski leads all TEs in yards per route run at 2.73, well clear of the 2nd placed TE (T Kelce, 2.36)

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 4, 2014"

Because opposing defenses have to gear up for Gronkowski, the middle of the field is open for Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell to make plays. Whatever problems the Patriots have on the road will be washed away for at least one week in San Diego. 

Patriots 31, Chargers 27

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