Fantasy Football 2014: Playoff Matchups Owners Should Avoid

The 2014 fantasy football playoffs kicked off in most leagues Thursday night with a 41-28 shootout between the Cowboys and Bears. Those flaccid NFL defenses are a welcome sight on the schedule but won’t be mentioned again in this countdown. Buffalo, Seattle and St. Louis, on the other hand, loom ominously for even the most prolific fantasy performers.

Find out if one of your studs is on the list.

Honorable Mention

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston Texans

J.J. Watt is vastly more frightening than the rest of the Texans D. Just imagine how scary it’d be if Jadeveon Clowney could stay on the field.

San Francisco 49ers

The 2014 49ers grab attention as much on reputation as actual results. Things might be different if Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman were healthy.

5. Arizona Cardinals

USA TODAY Sports

The average team entering the season without two top linebackers and a defensive tackle would have folded under the pressure long before now.

The Cardinals rose to meet the challenge instead, plugging in castoffs like Larry Foote and Tommy Kelly to fill the considerable holes left by Karlos Dansby (free agent), Daryl Washington (suspended) and Darnell Dockett (injured reserve). Arizona ranks fourth in the league for total defense.

Arizona ranks fifth on the list because the pressure of leading the NFC West (9-3) while carrying the 19th-ranked NFL offense is weighing heavier. Atlanta torched the Cardinals for 500 total yards in Week 13.

But, Arizona demonstrated its resolve by ending five of those Falcons drives with field goals instead of touchdowns. That might seem like the stuff of moral victories, but really it shows this D can still stiffen up when necessary.

The Cardinals feature ferocious run-stoppers, ranking sixth in yards against (89.2 yards per game) and second in touchdowns (5).

This is bad news for Jamaal Charles, Tre Mason and Marshawn Lynch owners. All three are high-end backs but could suffer disappointing outputs because their one-dimensional offenses aren’t likely to spread out Arizona’s front seven.

Owners shouldn’t bench Charles, Mason or Lynch unless they have incredibly deep backfields, but they should be wary. Knocking a touchdown off their respective 13.3, 10.9 and 15.7 points-per-game averages could mean the difference between a championship and elimination.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

USA TODAY Sports

Really? Fear the Bungles?

Yes, really.

Remember back in August when somebody in your league made Cincinnati the seventh-highest drafted defensive/special teams unit?

Maybe not, because Tom Brady and the Patriots ran up 43 points in the Week 5 Sunday-nighter—the defense responsible for 37. That prime-time thrashing kicked off a six-week slide in which Cincinnati surrendered 29.7 points per game.

Then the Bengals inexplicably held the Saints to 10 points at the Superdome in Week 11. Did you catch that “at the Superdome” part? That ties the lowest home score in the nine-year, Drew Brees-Sean Payton era—New Orleans lost 16-10 to Washington in Week 15 of 2006.

It’s true the Saints struggled on offense this season, but they averaged 28.7 points in their other three most recent contests.

The Bengals then stifled Houston, allowing seven points in Week 12 to a Texans team averaging 22.5 on offense over the last four weeks. The trend continued against Tampa Bay, holding the Buccaneers to 13 when they averaged 16 overall in Weeks 10-13.

This could be a sobering development for Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas owners convinced their guys are matchup-proof.

Cincinnati ranks second in wide receiver points against, giving up just 14.5 points per game. The Bengals allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns so far this season, with only five of those going to wide receivers.

Again, you probably shouldn’t bench Brown, Gordon and Thomas against Cincinnati because you’re unlikely to find better options.

Just don’t be surprised if Adam Jones, Leon Hall and Terence Newman shut down your WR1 and send you home empty-handed.

3. Buffalo Bills

USA TODAY Sports

Nobody should be shocked the Bills held ho-hum offenses like those of Kansas City, Miami, the Jets and Cleveland 4.7 points below their four-week averages.

Buffalo ranked third among the other defenses on this list, surrendering just 12.5 points per game between Weeks 10 to 13. The Bills also ranked fourth in turnovers (7), second in yards per game (285.3) and graded first overall, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The reason Buffalo doesn’t rate No. 1 on this list is because Denver and Green Bay are coming up on the schedule.

Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers owners shouldn’t panic facing Jim Schwartz’s second-ranked defense, but there might be cause for concern.

Michael Griebe’s Fantasy Football Analytics archive reveals a consensus of experts haven’t downgraded Demaryius Thomas from his No. 3 rank among wide receivers over the last two weeks. The experts expected Thomas to score 16 points on the road in Kansas City, with many allowing for a heavy upside.

Thomas failed to meet those optimistic expectations, finishing tied for 14th among wide receivers with 12 points.

Although Thomas is still ranked third facing Buffalo at home in Week 14, his average projected score dropped one point to 15 with little upside.

Owners with one or two Broncos and/or Packers in their lineup shouldn’t feel too comfortable about their prospects the next two weeks, but they shouldn’t be dialing up a crisis hotline either.

But if you’re one of those superfans with an egg basket full of Broncos and/or Packers, the Bills might spread those cracks in your championship plans.

2. Seattle Seahawks

USA TODAY Sports

Seattle suffered a long recovery as far as Super Bowl hangovers go. The Seahawks opened the season 3-3 and opened their locker room atmosphere to scrutiny when they suddenly shipped Percy Harvin to the Jets.

Things have settled down since then. They won five of their last six, and the defense is restoring the fear factor it brandished so effectively in 2013.

Seattle tops the other teams on this list in points allowed over the last four weeks (11.8) and yards allowed (247.5). Granted the Giants, Chiefs, Cardinals and 49ers aren’t dangerous offenses, but the Seahawks held them five points below their already-measly 16.8 points-per-game average over the last four weeks.

This is the first team in this countdown owners should truly consider avoiding.

Mark Sanchez certainly hasn’t faced a defense this formidable in his fifth start in relief of Nick Foles. Colin Kaepernick owners probably aren’t even reading this because they missed the playoffs altogether. Ditto for anyone gambling on Andre Ellington or John Brown.

The Legion of Boom is back just in time to defend their crown. Don’t test them in the fantasy playoffs.

1. St. Louis Rams

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

St. Louis tops the list in part because it tied Seattle with 11.8 points against over the last four weeks. The Rams' seven-point disruption of Peyton Manning and the Broncos spearheaded this impressive stretch.

Denver averaged 36.3 points per game in Weeks 10, 12 and 13, which means St. Louis dropped its average 29.3 points in its unbelievable Week 11 upset. It’s the second time a Broncos offense led by Manning was held under double digits, the first in the regular season.

St. Louis also tops its contemporaries in turnovers, nabbing 11 takeaways over the last four weeks. That stat is foreboding for any Giants or Redskins owner, given New York ranks tied for third and Washington tied for eighth in the league in turnovers.

Avoid Eli Manning and Colt McCoy if your league penalizes for interceptions and fumbles lost. Bench all Arizona players because its offense is terrible and if you’re counting on Drew Stanton or Michael Floyd, your season’s probably already over.

If Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams can shut down the league’s fifth-rated offense, this trio doesn’t stand a chance.

Are you getting nervous if one of your regulars is facing one of these defenses in the playoffs? You should be.

Just remember not to panic and bench a top-tier player unless you’ve got a top-tier replacement with a better matchup. But if the player in question is already borderline, don’t risk starting him against these formidable foes in the playoffs.

All statistics and rankings courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted. Fantasy points are based on ESPN standard scoring unless otherwise noted.