Steelers vs. Bengals: Breaking Down Pittsburgh's Game Plan
Well, the Pittsburgh Steelers have officially entered the “must-win zone,” and it starts this Sunday. The Steelers travel to Cincinnati on Sunday to take on the Cincinnati Bengals with serious NFL playoff implications on the line. Pittsburgh faithful have to wonder which version of this team is going to show up.
Cincinnati is perched on top of the highly competitive AFC North at 8-3-1 just staring down at the rest of the division sitting at 7-5. However, for Pittsburgh the math is simple. If the Steeelers win these last four games, they are in the playoffs, regardless of what the rest of the teams in the hunt in the AFC do.
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Nevertheless, before the Steelers win four games, they have to win one, so let’s start here.
Before we delve into the specifics of how the Steelers will attack the Bengals and try and slow them down, let’s look at how these teams match up on paper. Thanks to the folks at statmilk.com for this excellent tool.
When the Steelers are on offense
It has become all but impossible to predict which Steelers offense is going to show up each week. Will it be the offense that put up 639 yards and 54 points in a win over the Indianapolis Colts? Or will it be the offense that mustered a woeful 362 yards and 13 points in a loss to the lowly New York Jets?
Because the Bengals are a good team, the numbers tell us the Steelers offense is going to play well. Think that doesn’t make sense? Well, ESPN’s Scott Brown put out this tweet that illustrates the conundrum that is the Steelers:
"That is Steelers' seventh loss dating back to a team with a losing record dating back to last season. Unacceptable.
— Scott Brown (@ScottBrown_ESPN) November 30, 2014 "
If you believe in the numbers, a top opponent like the Bengals will bring out the best in the Steelers as well.
And what the Steelers do best is run right at a defense with star running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell is the leading rusher in the AFC with 1,046 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. More than that, Bell is a very skilled wide receiver. Bell has 65 receptions for 643 yards and two touchdowns.
If there’s a significant chink in the armor of the Bengals defense, it is that it doesn't give up lots of yards in the run game. This means everyone should look for Bell to rack up 25-30 carries if the Steelers want to win.
Turning to the passing game, Pittsburgh needs to use the pass with intelligence and efficiency. Against the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger really struggled to get any traction in the passing game. The troubling part was that until the second half the Steelers coaches felt no sense of urgency to scale back the passing attack to make things easier on Big Ben and his receivers.
Against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs to keep the passing game very simple. The rushing game is going to force the Bengals to pack things in. That means the intermediate passing game out wide will be there for Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown should have plenty of opportunities outside the hashes to get the football in space.
However, this doesn’t mean the Steelers abandon the deep passing game. With Bell battering the Bengals defense, some well-timed play-action passing should work. This game could be serious retribution for wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Bryant had a couple of bad drops against the Saints, so he needs to make the most of his opportunities. I expect several splash plays from the rookie.
When the Steelers are on defense
While the stats might not show it this year, wide receiver A.J. Green is easily among the best at his position. Green’s long, athletic frame just glides on the field, and he can make catches that really seem impossible. Nevertheless, let me go on record now and say that Green is not going to be the guy who beats this defense.
The Steelers coaches will find a way to minimize the damage that Green does, even with a very undermanned secondary. No, just like last Sunday when wide receiver Kenny Stills delivered the knockout blow, expect a guy like wide receiver Mohamed Sanu or tight end Jermaine Gresham to be the one to beat this defense for a big play or two.
The goal of the Steelers in pass defense must be two-fold. First, this group must find a way to rush quarterback Andy Dalton. Against Saints quarterback Drew Brees, this was best achieved via some well-timed A-gap pressure. Regardless of which players are where, it will be the scheme that helps here. You can best believe that getting inside Dalton's head would go a long way toward a victory.
On the back end, the much-maligned secondary has to step up. Disciplined coverage, sound tackling and taking a chance or two in order to get a turnover is what will get the defense off the field. They are going to give up plays. This is a given. It's the chunk plays that have to stop.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Bengals' rushing offense. Running backs Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard form an excellent one-two punch of power and speed.
The way running backs take advantage of the Steelers defense is by allowing it to be too aggressive around the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have to seal on the backside and do not allow those gaping cutback lanes so many running backs have taken advantage of.
Prediction
It is hard to look at either of these teams and think of it as elite in the NFL. Both of these teams have pretty significant flaws. The winner of this game is going to be the team that masks its flaws better than the other. In addition, whichever team can exploit the weaknesses of the opponent will win the day. Don't be shocked if this game turns on a play or two in favor of one team.
Pittsburgh understands that the season hinges on this game. It also understands that it will see this team again at home in the regular-season finale. However, that game might as well be a lifetime away. It’s win on Sunday or deal with a repeat of last season when tiebreakers and playoff permutations melted our brains.
This is going to be a high-scoring affair and won’t be decided until the final minutes. My prediction? My heart tells me the Steelers pull it off, but my head says they lose a heartbreaker on the road.
Steelers 31, Bengals 35
Unless specified, stats courtesy of NFL.com.
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