Rose Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Oregon vs. Florida State

This may be Rose Bowl No. 101, but it will undoubtedly be unlike any other in its long and storied history.

The Pac-12 champion Oregon Ducks were awarded the second seed by the College Football Playoff committee and will take on ACC champion and defending national champion Florida State in the “Granddaddy of Them All” on Jan. 1 in Pasadena.

While the Ducks have mostly cruised over their past eight games—winning by an average margin of just over 26 points per game—the Seminoles have struggled to fend off lesser opponents all season. That being said, Florida State has not lost in two full seasons and is undefeated with defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston under center.

Oregon will have a distinct advantage due to its proximity to the Rose Bowl; however, it should be noted that the Seminoles won last year’s BCS National Championship at the Rose Bowl vs. Auburn.

With Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota being a lock to win the Heisman Trophy, the Rose Bowl will feature two Heisman-winning quarterbacks.

This has all of the makings of one of the most memorable Rose Bowls in history. Can the Ducks be the team that finishes off Florida State? Will the Seminoles continue their magical ride toward back-to-back national championships?

Here's what you need to know:

Date: Thursday, Jan. 1

Time: 2 p.m. PT/5 p.m. ET

Place: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

TV: ESPN

Line: Oregon -8.5, according to Odds Shark.

Tale of the Tape

Check out a graphical stat breakdown of Oregon vs. Florida State.

On paper, Oregon's offense holds a distinct advantage over the Seminoles defense. The Ducks have the third-best turnover margin in the entire country and score the third-most points in the nation. Moreover, the Ducks offense has only committed eight turnovers this season, which is the best mark in the country. 

While Florida State's offense is sure to have an advantage over Oregon's defense, the Ducks have been playing much better as of late on that side of the ball. 

Oregon's ability to force turnovers and convert those extra possessions into points is what truly sets it apart from other teams in the country. 

Florida State has been unable to take good care of the ball this season (27 turnovers). That is a good sign for fans of the Oregon Ducks. 

Oregon Keys to Victory

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Jump out Early

There’s little doubt that the Ducks play better when they have a lead. That’s interesting in this matchup because Florida State has done an excellent job of playing from behind this year.

The Ducks struggle when they don’t find their offense early in the game. When Oregon doesn’t have a lead, it has to rely on its often-spotty defense, though the group has played better as a whole for the past couple of weeks.

If Marcus Mariota can lead the Ducks down the field and get seven points on their first drive, they may be able to put a scare into the Seminoles.

Florida State is well-versed in the art of the comeback; however, it's yet to play a team like Oregon. If FSU gets behind, it's going to be in big trouble.

Run, Run, Run

The Seminoles are ranked No. 60 in rush defense, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Oregon’s rushing attack is gaining over 237 yards per game, which ranks No. 22 in the country.

In the ACC championship, the Seminoles allowed Georgia Tech to rush for 331 yards. While the Ducks won’t be relying on the run quite as heavily as GT, they will have to get the ground game going.

True freshman tailback Royce Freeman is quickly becoming one of the most feared running backs in the entire nation. Combine that with Marcus Mariota’s ability to run around the edges, and you have reason to believe that the Ducks will be able to run over Florida State’s defense.

Florida State Keys to Victory

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Pressure Is King

Florida State’s 17 sacks this season may only be ranked No. 107 in the country; however, Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr. are two of the best defensive linemen in the country.

If there’s one area where Oregon’s offense has really struggled this year it is in protecting Marcus Mariota. The Ducks’ offensive line has allowed Mariota to be sacked 29 times this season.

If the Seminoles are able to get pressure on Mariota, flush him out of the pocket and contain his running ability, they may be able to slow down Oregon’s high-octane offense. However, if they fail to get to Mariota, there’s no doubt that the likely 2014 Heisman winner will be able to slice and dice FSU all game long.

Attack Downfield

While Jameis Winston has struggled some this year—he has thrown 17 interceptions—he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and has the ability to put the team on his back at any given moment.

While the Ducks have the second-best turnover margin in the nation, they only rank No. 25 in turnovers created and have only intercepted 11 passes this season.

Oregon’s defense is ranked No. 103 in the country in passing defense. Meanwhile, Florida State has the No. 14 passing offense. That’s a huge mismatch that the Seminoles may be able to exploit.

Jameis Winston and the FSU offense should take multiple shots deep down the field against Oregon’s defense.

Oregon Players to Watch

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Royce Freeman

Oregon’s standout true freshman is coming into his own at the right time of the season. Not only has the kid put up eight consecutive games of 98 or more yards on the ground, but he’s also scored 12 touchdowns in those eight games.

On the season, Freeman has rushed for 1,299 yards and 16 touchdowns. More importantly, he’s brought a physical presence to Oregon’s backfield and is a player no defender wants any part of.

When Oregon’s offense has broken down or stalled out at points this season, the solution has been to feed the rock to Freeman and let him bulldoze entire defenses. That plan has worked pretty well.

The Ducks need to commit to the running game against Florida State. Yes, Marcus Mariota is the best player in the country. However, Oregon’s offense always works best when the first option is the run.

If Freeman is going, the Ducks are nearly unstoppable.

Erick Dargan

While Oregon’s defense has struggled a bit this year, senior safety Erick Dargan has been a bright spot. Dargan not only leads the Ducks in interceptions (six), but he also leads the team in tackles with 82.

The Ducks defense is going to have its hands full with one of the best offenses in the nation. Moreover, the Seminoles are going to try and throw the ball all over the field and attempt to expose what would seem to be Oregon’s weakness.

Yes, the Ducks may only rank No. 103 in pass defense, but they have two of the best defensive backs in the Pac-12 in Dargan and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Each of those seniors is going to have to have the best game of his career in order to take down the Seminoles.

Florida State Players to Watch

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Jameis Winston

While the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner is not having nearly the season he had last year, he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the country and can win a game by himself.

There are very few players in the nation who have the ability to single-handedly win you a ballgame; however, Winston is one of them. For the record so is Mariota.

On the season, Winston has thrown 24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and has thrown for 3,559 yards. He’s also completing 65.4 percent of his passes. Yes, all of those numbers are down from a season ago.

Expect Winston and the FSU offense to take a couple of shots downfield, run a ton of screen plays and use the pass to set up the run. Oregon’s defense is much more competent at defending the run than it is the pass.

If Winston plays well, the Seminoles could easily score the upset. However, if he has a down game like he had against Louisville or Florida, the 'Noles have no shot at taking out the Ducks.

Jalen Ramsey

While Winston may be Florida State’s biggest star, safety Jalen Ramsey may in fact be the Seminoles' best player.

Not only is Ramsey the emotional leader of the defense, but also he’s the one player who can play at any level of the field and be a difference-maker. I expect Ramsey to come up and try to force pressure on Mariota early.

Ramsey will be tasked with being the leader of a defense facing its toughest opponent this season. The Seminoles played an offense similar to Oregon’s in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game. The Auburn Tigers run a similar system, and the Seminoles defense played their worst game of the season.

Now they’ll face the Ducks with Marcus Mariota, Royce Freeman and a bevy of other athletes. It will be up to Ramsey to lead the charge for FSU and try to swallow up Oregon’s attack.

What They're Saying

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich's response in the Pac-12 postgame press conference when asked if the Ducks are playing their best football of the season right now.

"

Yeah, we need to talk about that in the locker room a little bit of finishing. Those guys have had great characteristic of a champion to this point. They have to finish school this week. They have to finish in the next couple of days traveling, and coaches going recruiting and all that stuff, and we'll rally up when we find out where we're headed, and continue to ascend.

"

Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher says the 2014 Seminoles are more incredible than the 2013 national championship team, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN).

"

Last year's team was dominating, this year's team is more amazing," Fisher said. "It is really is. ... They compete together. They have had some struggles together and I think that's what makes them so tight.

"

Prediction

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Seminoles have a championship pedigree and know how to win close games against top opponents. They’ve been coming from behind all season long, and Jameis Winston is one of the most clutch players in college football. 

However, this is Oregon’s year. With the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner running the show, there’s no reason the Ducks should lose to a Florida State team that is statistically much worse than them.

The Ducks have had chances at national championships before, most notably in 2010 and 2012. They’ve squandered both of those opportunities.

There's no way that happens this year. The Ducks will ride into the Rose Bowl as the prohibitive favorites, and they’ll leave knowing a trip to Dallas on Jan. 12 has been booked.

Oregon has climbed the college football mountain, and it's two steps from planting its flag at the peak. This is the year it gets it done.

Oregon 45, Florida State 34

Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.