Has Dion Sims Made Charles Clay Expendable Moving Forward?

As Charles Clay entered his first contract-season in the NFL, expectations were high for the former Tulsa hybrid playmaker. Clay likely figured that he’d be staring at his first big pay day if he replicated and improved upon his breakout 2013 season.

The preseason hype on Clay included crowns such as the “League’s Best Secret Weapon,” the most underrated tight end in the league and earned distinction as the NFL’s 89th best player by NFL.com. Such excitement was well deserved, as Clay amassed 69 receptions, 759 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starting tight end.

Nearly a year later, we need to evaluate whether Clay is worth the potential financial investment that the Miami Dolphins are going to face this offseason. The biggest reason why Clay’s value is now in question is from an unexpected source.

Second-year tight end Dion Sims’ emergence in recent weeks should give Miami pause when they enter negotiations with Clay in the spring.

Clay’s struggles this season haven’t been completely clear, but his health has been a constant issue since training camp. Back in August, Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported that Clay hurt his knee, causing him to miss time before the regular season started. Since then, Clay has not been the consistent playmaker that the Dolphins offense desperately needs.

Looking at Clay’s snap count throughout the season, he’s spending large chunks of games on the sideline as opposed to being on the field as a receiving threat. Some of this may be attributed to his injuries and the rise of rookie Jarvis Landry. Outside of those two factors, there are a few other potential reasons for Sims’ usage increasing.

The first is that Clay is not a reliable blocker, as he’s more of a fullback/tight end hybrid player. He finished 2013 with a run-blocking grade of -5.0, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That grade left Clay as the 52nd-best blocking tight end in the league.

His struggles as a blocker shouldn’t be surprising. Clay’s potential as a pass-catcher is what made him the obvious choice to replace Dustin Keller in 2013 after Keller suffered a season-ending injury. In Mike Sherman’s offense, this brought great value because of how often Sherman featured Clay on seam routes.

That leads us to the second reason why Clay isn’t producing as well. Bill Lazor’s offense has stressed blocking more than receiving from the tight end position.

In 16 games played last season, Clay was targeted an average of 6.38 times each game. This season, he’s down to 5.8 per game, which projects him to have 81 total on the year. That’s 21 less over the course of the season after factoring in Clay missing the last two weeks.

Where Clay is getting those receptions is also important. Take a look at the chart below, which illustrates where Clay is being targeted this season.

	Outside Left	Middle	Outside Right
20+ yards	0/0	0/0	1/4, 25 yards
10-19 Yards	3/4, 34 Yards, 2 TDs	4/7, 78 Yards	2/5, 30 Yards
0-9 Yard	5/5, 11 Yards	8/10, 65 Yards	8/10, 64 Yards
Minus Yards	1/1, 2 yards	7/7, 24 Yards	2/2, 13 Yards

Now, look at where Clay made his impact in 2013.

	Outside Left	Middle	Outside Right
20+ yards	0/0	0/1	2/6, 85 Yards
10-19 Yards	3/3, 23 Yards, 2 TDs	7/15, 195 Yards	0/4
0-9 Yard	11/14, 74 Yards	26/33, 211 Yards	14/16, 152 Yards, 4 TDs
Minus Yards	0/1	3/3, -3 Yards	3/3, 22 Yards

Only one game in 2014 has Clay seen similar usage to last year, and that was against the San Diego Chargers. Coincidentally, that was his best statistical game of the season, as he tallied five receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.

NFL Game Rewind

The separation Clay created over the middle was much improved compared to what we’ve seen in any other game this year, which may be a statement on his overall health. His routes haven’t looked as crisp as they did last year, which makes sense if his knee is ailing.

In his absence, it’s been Sims who has stepped up in a major way. He’s caught eight of his nine targeted passes the last two games for a total of 89 yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference. What has stood out is his clutch receptions late in games, including key 18-yard and 17-yard receptions against the Jets on Miami’s game-winning drive.

The latter occurred on a key 3rd-and-7 play on the Jets’ 31-yard line. Miami lined up in their usual shotgun formation, and Sims ran to the middle of the field, creating space and settling in the middle of the field. It was the key reception needed to set up the winning field goal.

NFL Game Rewind

Sims also brings more versatility in terms of usage. He’s an inch taller and 20 pounds heavier than Clay, giving him a massive frame to work with as a blocker and receiver. His natural strength and ability to move for a big man is a valuable piece that Lazor features in motion blocks often.

Where Sims really excels over Clay is his ability as a blocker. He’s graded at -0.7 as a run-blocker, but he has had only two slightly negative PFF grades since Week 4. He’s improving as he gains experience, with upside to continue getting better.

Ideally, the Dolphins would retain Clay after the season for a medium-level deal around $4-5 million a year. If they can hammer out a deal similar to Delanie Walker’s four-year, $17.5 million contract, that would leave Clay as the 13th-highest paid tight end, which is fitting for his talent.

Sims and Clay can play together, but if Lazor is the offensive coordinator in place past this season, expect Sims to really cut into Clay’s snaps, even when he’s healthy. A lingering knee issue and one-dimensional game isn’t a good sign for Clay’s return to being a consistent performer for the Dolphins.

To answer the question of whether Sims has made Clay expendable, it depends on the potential cost to bring back Clay. He’s valuable as a receiver, but Miami has to trim the fat contracts already at wide receiver, and they have three young, cheap tight ends besides Clay that can fill roles in 2015.

We won’t advocate for Clay to be allowed to walk away from Miami, but the Dolphins should be prepared to move forward if need be. The last thing they need is an expensive, injured, 'tweener tight end/fullback. At the right price, however, Clay’s health is the right risk.

Either way, Dion Sims looks ready to embrace a starting role with, or without, Charles Clay on the roster.

All stats used are from sports-reference.com.

Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting, and analyst for eDraft. 

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