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Fantasy Football Week 14: Insider Notebook and Preview

Eric MackDec 2, 2014

We get this question all the time: How do you approach the fantasy postseason? The answer lies within. You don't change a thing—unless, of course, constant change is what you do.

If you spend countless hours reading practice reports, keep doing it. If you play the hot hands over your stars and get away with it, by all means. Pound the waiver-wire gems or not, be our guest. If you set your lineup blindfolded, roll with that. (Well, maybe not so much there.)

No fantasy analyst has gotten you to the fantasy postseason. You have. You alone...well, along with those names on your roster.

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About the only thing(s) different from the fantasy regular season and postseason is the competition for the flavors of the week. There are fewer teams still competing, so fewer owners are going after the upstarts off the waiver wire. Keep that in mind.

You don't have to pick up a guy to stash him on your reserves this time of year, especially if you are on the lower end of the standings and higher on the waiver-priority list. Use the waiver wire as an extension of your bench, and if you have dead weight, flush it to the free-agent pile and use your bench to load up on the premium positions and players you—or even your opponent—need to consider for the starting lineup.

Outside of some in-depth forward thinking, we wouldn't bother owning backup quarterbacks (referring to one-quarterback formats here), backup tight ends, kickers or defenses. Viable starting options at those positions will be readily available in future weeks with just a few teams competing for the weekly leftovers.

We advise maxing out on the players who can make a difference in your starting lineups, the running backs and wide receivers. As when you draft your team, you want to have insurance and a variety of options at those positions.

Gobble up the best running back handcuffs out there, looking specifically to the backup running backs from the NFL's elite rushing teams. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs' Knile Davis is barely owned in one-quarter of ESPN.com fantasy leagues because he has just two touches in the past two weeks. But if Jamaal Charles were to succumb to another injury—as he is wont to do in his career—Davis would instantly become a fantasy postseason gold mine.

Target the third, or fourth, receiving options from the most productive quarterbacks, just in case they move quickly up the depth chart due to sudden injuries. Davante Adams (six catches for 121 yards in Week 13)—owned in less than 7 percent of ESPN.com leagues—is a great example, and he didn't even need injury as much as Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner working to take away the Green Bay Packers' Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb this past Sunday.

Postseason RB Handcuffs

Here is a quick top-10 list of running backs we would make sure are owned and stashed for the stretch run, ordered by their potential to star in the fantasy postseason if the starter ahead of him goes down:

  1. Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs
  2. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
  3. Robert Turbin/Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks
  4. Joseph Randle/Lance Dunbar, Dallas Cowboys
  5. Alfred Blue, Houston Texans
  6. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens
  7. Chris Polk, Philadelphia Eagles
  8. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints
  9. Josh Harris/Dri Archer, Pittsburgh Steelers
  10. Roy Helu, Washington Redskins
  11. Honorable mentions: James Starks/DuJuan Harris, Green Bay Packers; Ka'Deem Carey, Chicago Bears

Postseason WR Fliers

Similarly, here is a list of the most intriguing reserve wideouts stuck behind stars catching passes from the elite fantasy quarterbacks. Unlike running backs, the mere volume of options here makes it a bit less important to have these guys stashed on rosters. Most could be easily be picked up after they emerge.

Still, these guys could move into a lot of targets—or a lot more in some of the more high-profile cases—and fantasy-scoring opportunities on a moment's or injury's notice:

  1. Jordan Matthews/Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles
  2. Kenny Stills/Nick Toon, New Orleans Saints
  3. Markus Wheaton/Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers
  4. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
  5. Donte Moncrief/Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts
  6. Wes Welker/Cody Latimer/Andre Caldwell, Denver Broncos
  7. Malcom Floyd/Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers
  8. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots
  9. Harry Douglas/Devin Hester, Atlanta Falcons
  10. Jeremy Ross/Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions

Postseason Matchup Look Ahead

In case you are bigger on matchups than stockpiling talent, here are the upcoming schedules for the worst teams in fantasy against running backs over the next three weeks:

  1. Oakland Raiders: vs. San Francisco 49ers, at Kansas City Chiefs, vs. Buffalo Bills
  2. Tennessee Titans: vs. New York Giants, vs. New York Jets, at Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. Atlanta Falcons: at Green Bay Packers, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at New Orleans Saints
  4. New Orleans Saints: vs. Carolina Panthers, at Chicago Bears, vs. Atlanta Falcons
  5. New York Giants: at Tennessee Titans, vs. Washington Redskins, at St. Louis Rams
  6. Cincinnati Bengals: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cleveland Browns, vs. Denver Broncos
  7. Indianapolis Colts: at Cleveland Browns, vs. Houston Texans, at Dallas Cowboys
  8. Jacksonville Jaguars: vs. Houston Texans, at Baltimore Ravens, vs. Tennessee Titans

Ex-Raven Rice Reinstated

Regardless of your opinion on Ray Rice's circumstances with his domestic violence account with his now-wife Janay, his suspension and now reinstatement, he could be in play for NFL teams and fantasy owners. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that four teams have checked in on signing Rice before the end of this season.

It makes you have to at least consider him off waivers, if only to block another team from getting him.

Not only would Rice have to sign soon, perhaps as early as this week, but he has to wind up in the right spot, prove to be in shape and then earn his way up a depth chart. It is a long shot, to be sure.

An AFC running backs coach told ESPN's Josina Anderson, per Schefter:

"

I don't know what kind of shape he's in. There are a bunch of different things. He's going to have to get into shape, clearly because he hasn't been hitting this year. You would think there would be some carryover...but he is a good player. He is a good player.

"

The fact Rice is determined to find the right situation might delay his signing to the point we won't have to worry about him in fantasy. Pick him up only if you have dead weight on your bench, say a backup kicker or a player you would never intend to start in the fantasy playoffs. That is the only way Rice is worth a flier.

Waiver-Wire Favorites

Every week of the season FantasyPros.com surveys fantasy analysts for their top free-agent acquisitions. We reprint their analysts' consensus rankings of those players to give you a deep and well-rounded guide of which targets to consider.

1 Kenny Stills WR NO1.312
2 Dan Herron RB IND 2.514
3 Doug Martin RB TB 3.837
4 Davante Adams WR GB 5.5210
5 Jordan Reed TE WAS 639
6 Donte Moncrief WR IND 7.5514
7 Malcom Floyd WR SD 7.569
8 Stedman Bailey WR STL 7.8511
9 Charles Johnson WR MIN 8414
10 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR10.3513
11 Marqise Lee WR JAX11.3913
12 Robert Woods WR BUF11.8716
13 James Jones WR OAK12.51016
14 Harry Douglas WR ATL151018
15 Andre Williams RB NYG15.3920
16 Eddie Royal WR SD15.81220
17 Marion Grice RB ARI161418
18 Greg Jennings WR MIN16.51119
19 Stepfan Taylor RB ARI171519
20 Michael Bush RB ARI191720

Thursday Night Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Dallas Cowboys

Start: Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Dan Bailey, Cowboys D/ST

Sit: Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Gavin Escobar

Expect the Cowboys to rebound after a pitiful Thanksgiving Day effort against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chicago Bears are the worst team in fantasy against quarterbacks, worst against tight ends and in the bottom eight against wide receivers, per FFToday.com. Romo is 5-0 with 1,164 yards passing, 12 touchdowns and a league-best 122.0 passer rating on the road this season, per the NFL media capsule preview.

Williams is the one fringe option above. While the Bears are not an imposing matchup, Williams' targets just haven't been there enough to trust him in crunch time.

Chicago Bears

Start: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett

Sit: Bears D/ST, Robbie Gould

There is nothing to fear with your primary Bears fantasy options here. The Cowboys are particularly vulnerable against tight ends, which makes Bennett a borderline top-five option at his position. The Cowboys are sixth-best against fantasy wideouts, so while you wouldn't sit Jeffery or Marshall, you might consider Cutler (138.2 quarterback rating against Dallas, per NFL Media) a low-end No. 1 fantasy starter for this postseason matchup.

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.

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