
Breaking Down the Green Bay Packers' Late-Season Schedule
As the Green Bay Packers prepare for their Monday night matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field, the team is in an excellent position to get a top seed in the NFC playoffs.
The Packers are currently 9-3 and lead the Detroit Lions by a game in the NFC North. The Packers also have the same record as the Arizona Cardinals and are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC, if the playoffs started today.
I believe the Packers have a great opportunity to win all four of their remaining games. If that indeed happens, Green Bay has a very good chance of being the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
That would mean the Packers would get a bye on the first weekend of the postseason (Wild Card Games) and that they would play all of their postseason games at home before Super Bowl XLIX.
The Packers are currently 6-0 at home this season and at times have looked simply unbeatable. In those six games, the Packers have outscored their opponents by a 245-106 margin.
Let's take a look at the final four games of the season, two of which will be played at home, and how I believe they will all play out.
Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field on December 8
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Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers offense have to be licking their chops as they get set to face the Falcons on Monday at Lambeau Field. Why? The Dirty Birds have the absolute worst defense in the NFL as they give up an average of over 400 yards a game. Plus, they are also ranked dead last in passing defense.
That is not a good position to be in as they are about to face Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. The Packers have climbed into the top 10 in total offense in the NFL, as they are currently ranked seventh.
Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel did a preview story about the upcoming game with the Falcons, and most of the scouts he talked with thought the 9-3 Packers would blow out the 5-7 Falcons on Monday night.
Even with a 5-7 record, Atlanta leads the sorry NFC South.
"If the Falcons win the division, it will be unbelievable," an NFL team personnel director told McGinn. "That would be a joke. If Green Bay doesn't torch them for 40, I'll be shocked."
The Falcons have three main issues. They have a terrible secondary, they lack a pass rush, and their offensive line is in shambles.
The Falcons' Matt Ryan is a fine quarterback when he is given time to throw, but he has been sacked 24 times and has been hit and pressured a lot more times than that. The Falcons running game does not even average 100 yards per contest.
The Falcons are second-to-last in the NFL in sacks, as the team only has 14.
The bottom line is I expect the Packers to continue their dominance at Lambeau Field this season and to beat the Falcons by a comfortable margin.
Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on December 14
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Of the four remaining games the Packers have, the game that concerns me the most is the contest against the 7-5 Bills in Buffalo. Why?
For one thing, the Packers have never won at Ralph Wilson Stadium—not once in five tries in the regular season.
The Bills also have a very good defense, as they are currently ranked fifth in total defense in the NFL. The Bills are ranked fifth in passing defense and seventh in rushing defense.
The Bills offense has gotten better since Kyle Orton has taken over as the starting quarterback. The Bills are only ranked 24th in total offense, but Orton has been a lot steadier as the signal-caller than was EJ Manuel.
Orton always seems to play well against the Packers and is 4-2 in his career versus the Pack. In fact, when the Packers suffered their only loss of the 2011 season at Kansas City, it was Orton who was the starting quarterback for the Chiefs then.
The Bills also have one of the best fanbases in the NFL, and it is very hungry for the team to get back to the postseason. The Bills have not been in the playoffs since 1999.
I expect the Packers to win this game, as they will be used to the frigid environment that they will face in Buffalo. The Packers have too many weapons on offense and too many playmakers on defense for the Bills to overcome when it's all said and done.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 21
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When the Packers face the now 2-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 21, I expect the stadium to look a little like Lambeau Field South.
I've been going to games between the Packers and Buccaneers in Tampa since the mid-1980s, and there was always a lot of green and gold in the stadium back then. At least until 1998, when the Bucs started playing at Raymond James Stadium.
Before then, the Bucs played at Tampa Stadium, which was affectionately known as the "Big Sombrero." The Packers and the Bucs were in the NFC Central then, and the Packers won eight out of 12 games at the old stadium between 1985 and 1997.
The Bucs usually had bad teams in that era, and the stadium always had a lot of Packer faithful in the stands. That all started changing when Tony Dungy became head coach of the Bucs in 1996. Dungy brought a winning culture to the team, and then the Bucs moved to the new stadium in 1998.
Since then, the Packers have had a very tough time winning at the "Ray Jay." The team is just 1-7 at the Bucs' new digs. That includes being 0-2 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Still, with the Bucs having another bad season in 2014, there have been a lot of empty seats when the Bucs play at home. Since 2011, the Bucs have gone just 17-43. Is it a wonder why the fanbase is staying away from home games?
The game against the Packers is a sellout, and I expect to see a large assembly of Packer Nation in attendance.
I also expect the Packers to win pretty handily. The Bucs are ranked only 26th in total offense in the NFL. Tampa Bay commits a number of penalties offensively and turns the ball over often (25 times). The Packers are fourth in the NFL in creating turnovers defensively, as they have done so 23 times.
The Bucs are better defensively, as they are ranked 20th in total defense. Still, I expect Rodgers to have a big day, as the Bucs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a 97.0 passer rating through 12 games.
The opposing quarterbacks have been able to throw 22 touchdown passes versus 11 interceptions in that time.
Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating with a 118.6 mark, as he has thrown 32 touchdown passes versus just three picks.
Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field on December 28
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December 15, 1991, was an important date for the Detroit Lions. Why? That was the last time the Lions have won a football game in the state of Wisconsin.
Since then, the Packers have won 23 straight games in the Badger state. That is an unbelievable statistic.
The game on December 28 is the very last game of the season when the two teams face off at Lambeau Field. The game might end up being the contest to determine who wins the NFC North this year and who gets the higher seed in the NFC playoffs.
I also expect this pivotal game to be the Sunday night game on NBC the last week of the 2014 season.
When the two teams met in Week 3 of the current season at Ford Field in Detroit, the Lions beat the Packers 19-7. The Packers offense just could not get in rhythm in that game.
Why? The Lions have an outstanding defense and a very good front seven. The Lions are currently ranked second in total defense in the NFL and first in rushing defense.
The Lions front four lost a key contributor when defensive tackle Nick Fairley sprained his knee. Fairley has missed four games, and it's not a coincidence that the team lost two of those four games.
Fairley and fellow defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh are two of the most important players on the Lions defense, along with linebacker DeAndre Levy.
It's uncertain whether Fairley will be able to play against the Packers in Week 17.
The Lions offense is led by quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford has a number of weapons to utilize offensively, including wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
Stafford is just 2-6 against the Packers in his career and is prone to throwing an untimely pick. In fact, Stafford has thrown 16 interceptions against the Packers versus 13 touchdown passes.
I expect the streak of losing in Wisconsin to continue for another season for the Lions, as the Packers are playing much better offensively and defensively than they were when they met the Lions earlier this season.
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