Dolphins vs. Jets: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan

Similar to the Miami Dolphins’ second matchup with the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, the Dolphins will be seeking revenge against a divisional foe. The New York Jets eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention in the final week of 2013, and this is their first rematch since that game.

Miami has high stakes once again, but the Jets have nothing but pride to play for. At 6-5, the Dolphins likely need to win four out of the next five to be in the playoff mix. The Jets are floundering at 2-9, which isn’t a surprise when looking at the talent available to Rex Ryan.

Even with Miami trending upward and the Jets at the bottom of the cellar, the Dolphins have to take their opponent seriously and be well-prepared. Thus, we’ve devised a game plan for the Dolphins to utilize their strengths and exploit the biggest weaknesses of the Jets.

Don’t forget to leave your predictions in the comments section below.

Attack the Secondary

Rex Ryan is a well-renowned defensive coach, and he deserves credit for building a threatening defense in his early years with the Jets. But in 2014, his secondary is putrid, and opposing offenses are picking it apart every week.

The biggest issue for the Jets is that they just don’t have the talent at cornerback or safety to be good against the pass. First-round safety Calvin Pryor and free safety Dawan Landry are both suited to play in the box as another linebacker, which speaks to the misevaluation by the Jets on Pryor.

Pryor is still reckless in coverage and does not have the natural instincts to be a threat to intercept the quarterback. That’s not the roaming presence any team needs when your starting cornerbacks are Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen. Allen is a former safety who is playing outside out of necessity.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Walls and Allen have allowed a quarterback passer rating of 126.8 and 123.3 respectively. That means each has been as atrocious statistically as he looks on film. Since neither is a standout NFL athlete, both are vulnerable to guys like Mike Wallace who own elite physical traits.

With Miami’s willingness to pass, don’t be surprised to see an emphasis on quick passes to counter the Jets’ secondary scheme. Ryan tries to mitigate his cornerbacks’ limitations by lining them far off the ball, but Miami will feast on this.

Even on deeper routes over the middle, the Dolphins own the advantage. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been one of the league’s best playmakers in the last two months, showing significant growth in Bill Lazor’s offense. Although the Dolphins don’t have the most prolific receivers, they are certainly good enough to take advantage of the Jets’ cornerbacks.

Continue Red-Zone Brilliance

As we looked at earlier this week, the Dolphins’ red-zone offense is blossoming at the most critical point in the season. Expect that to be a trend that continues, as the Jets have the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, according to Team Rankings. They have allowed a touchdown on 65.79 percent of all red-zone trips this season.

Miami’s offense owns an extra advantage against the Jets this week because the best Jets defender is likely going to miss the game. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reported that “it doesn’t look good” for Muhammad Wilkerson.

"

Rex said "it doesn't look good" for Wilkerson, who was in a walking boot with toe injury. Doesn't look good for MNF vs Miami

— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) November 26, 2014"

Even though Miami’s interior offensive line isn’t comprised of the most physical players, its players will be able to maneuver to the Jets’ linebackers because New York only possesses one lineman who’s threatening: Sheldon Richardson.

Sheldon Richardson has been the third-best 3-4 defensive end in the league, per PFF. He’s accounted for 13 hits on the quarterback, including four sacks, and an additional 18 hurries. Expect him to play against Mike Pouncey often, as he’s a left end for a majority of his snaps.

As long as Richardson isn’t able to command constant double-teams with his ability to get into the backfield, Miami should be able to control the Jets’ front seven enough to be productive running and passing. The Dolphins simply are more talented as an offense than what the Jets are as a defense.

The red zone must continue to yield touchdowns instead of field goals, and there’s no reason to think that will change this week.

Trap Geno

Geno Smith is in, and Michael Vick is back to the bench, per Brian Costello of the New York Post.

In many instances, statistics don’t tell the entire truth as to what actually happened on the field. Since football is a game that requires all 11 participants to execute reasonably well for the team to succeed, cherry-picking statistics can be misleading.

With Geno Smith, his statistics accurately reflect just how bad he’s been in his young career. Take a look at his 2014 numbers in nine games below.

Completion Percent	Yards/Game	Interception Percent	QB Rating
57.6	162.1	4.1	67.4

The Jets haven’t built a strong supporting cast around Smith, but his struggles cannot be exaggerated. He has yet to prove himself worthy of a starting job in the NFL, and the outlook isn’t getting better.

Miami once again will have a major advantage here, as the Dolphins defense should be motivated to make a statement after a very poor performance against the Denver Broncos. Also helping is the Jets may be without their best tight end, Jace Amaro, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News.

"

Rex seems to think Amaro probably won't play this week. Says "real possibility" pantale would be brought up. #nyj

— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) November 26, 2014"

The Dolphins’ fearsome pass rush needs to get back on track against the porous Jets offensive line to get pressure on Geno Smith. Smith ranks as the worst quarterback in the NFL when pressured, making an accurate pass on just 46 percent of his throws, according to PFF.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

That plays well into Miami’s opportunistic defense and veteran secondary. Expect interceptions and sacks if Miami’s defense plays as well as it can.

Be Focused

If the Dolphins lose to the Jets this week, then any questions about Joe Philbin’s ability to lead the Dolphins will be answered with a resounding negative response. Miami is simply more talented and deeper as well as having one of the better offensive coordinators in the league in Bill Lazor.

Miami’s offensive game plans have been excellent in recent weeks, and the offense is ascending toward one of the best in the NFL because of the mix of execution and coaching. This should continue against the lowly Jets.

Kevin Coyle’s defense has flashed dominance but has also let the team down three different times this year. Most recently, it allowed the Broncos, who were previously struggling, to have their way with it.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

If Coyle has his defense ready to force and pounce on the Jets’ mistakes, Miami may have another blowout victory on its hands by the fourth quarter. Considering the opponent, that should be expected.

What cannot happen is for the Dolphins to come out without energy and lose the turnover battle. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Jets because they were sleepwalking through the matchup, and Miami is simply too good to allow this to happen.

Miami’s brutal schedule is winding down, as the Jets are a much worse opponent than what the Dolphins have had to face in recent games. This game has all the makings of another big Dolphins blowout. Nothing less should be expected, considering the gap in talent between each team.

Prediction: Dolphins 38, Jets 10

Stats used are from Sports-Reference.com, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and Team Rankings.

Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting and analyst for eDraft. 

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