Bowl Projections 2014: Current Playoff Rankings and Predictions Before Week 14

Even though there is something wondrous about the entire bowl season, this year brings something new and different to the table for college football. With the final College Football Playoff standings coming out in just over one week, the final four has never been more in focus. 

Of course, since this is college football we are talking about, crazy things start happening once you think everything is figured out. For instance, a team like Florida State has been flirting with disaster all year. No one would be shocked if the Seminoles found the banana peel before December 7. 

Whatever is in store for the College Football Playoff and the selection committee, it will all be fascinating to watch unfold. Instead of merely waiting around for the games to be played, here's what you should expect to see happen by the time all the games have been played. 

(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)

College Football Playoff Predictions

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State

There's not a lot of mystery involved with this matchup. Oregon and Florida State have already clinched spots in their respective conference championship games and aren't likely to be challenged over the next two weeks. 

The Ducks have a rivalry game with Oregon State on Saturday. It's being played at Reser Stadium and weird things can happen in these games, but the Beavers haven't won in this spot since 2007. They did come close last year, losing by one point, though don't expect another tight battle. 

Oregon State's offense averages 26.3 points per game; Oregon averages 45.8. Oregon State allows 30.2 points per game; Oregon allows 23.6.

The one thing that will give Oregon State a chance in this spot is quarterback Sean Mannion. The senior is completing 63.5 percent of his passes with 3,002 yards. Since the offense around him isn't very good, Mannion has only thrown 14 touchdowns this year. 

Comparing Mannion to Marcus Mariota is like comparing a random Wednesday night dinner to a Thanksgiving meal, as noted by Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports:

Once Oregon gets past Oregon State, it will have a matchup in the Pac-12 Championship Game with UCLA, Arizona or Arizona State. While Arizona will get mentioned as a potential spoiler because of its head-to-head win over Oregon earlier in the season, it's important to note the Ducks' offensive line has improved dramatically over the last two months. 

Oregon has already blown UCLA out of the water this season and there's no reason to expect anything different. Arizona State would have made an interesting opponent, but its loss against Oregon State and 97 points allowed in the last three games don't paint a pretty picture. 

Florida State has the easiest path of any top contender to get in. The Seminoles have a nonconference showdown with Florida, which is coming into the game with a 6-4 record and only one win against a ranked team (Georgia). 

The ACC Championship Game against Georgia Tech is where the slip-up could happen. The Yellow Jackets are fourth in the nation with 327.9 rushing yards per game and 14th in points per game (37.8).

Florida State's run defense has been terrible of late, giving up 240 yards to Boston College and 176 to Miami, yet the team has found a way to win all of its games thus far. 

However, as noted by Heather Dinich of ESPN.com, it's not impossible to see a scenario where Florida State gets left out of the playoff with less-than-impressive wins:

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In the court of public opinion. Florida State has won 27 straight games and is the only undefeated Power 5 team remaining, yet the selection committee and seemingly everyone else outside of Tallahassee has pointed to the Noles' slew of close wins as a weakness.

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While it's highly unlikely an undefeated team that won the national championship last year would get moved below teams with one loss (Ohio State, TCU, Baylor, Mississippi State), the committee has not hesitated to punish the Seminoles for looking pedestrian. 

Given what we've seen from the Seminoles this year, you can't bet against them to lose before the playoff begins. They will make you look like a fool every time. 

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Here's where the biggest change from the current rankings comes in. Alabama is pretty self explanatory, being ranked No. 1 already and playing an Auburn team on Saturday that's allowed 179 points in its last five SEC games. 

Assuming the Crimson Tide take care of business at home on Saturday in the Iron Bowl, Missouri or Georgia awaits in the SEC Championship Game. Missouri lost to Indiana and got shut out by Georgia earlier in the season. The Tigers haven't beaten a team currently ranked in the top 25 all year. 

Georgia's offense plays into Nick Saban's hands. The Bulldogs are a run-first team, while the Crimson Tide haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in conference play all year. All you need to know about how well Alabama is playing right now comes courtesy of R.J. Bell from PreGame.com:

The selection committee obviously thinks highly of Alabama, so it would take a massive upset for something to change its collective mind. 

All the chaos comes when you look at the No. 4 spot. Mississippi State occupies the final slot right now, though that could change twice over the next 10 days. If the Bulldogs lose to Mississippi, their title chances are done. 

Even with a win, Mississippi State will need help because Ole Miss doesn't look as good as it once did thanks to three losses in its last four games. Dan Mullen's team also won't have the benefit of a conference title game unless it wins and Alabama loses to Auburn. 

That leaves TCU, Ohio State and Baylor fighting for the fourth spot. Assuming all three teams win this weekend, TCU seems unlikely to stay above Baylor because of Baylor's head-to-head victory. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State still fighting for the final playoff spot. 

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Ohio State gets the advantage in this scenario by virtue of having two more games left, including a potential Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin. It's vital the Buckeyes play the Badgers over Minnesota because Urban Meyer's team already defeated the Golden Gophers. 

It would also look better to the selection committee if Ohio State defeated the 14th-ranked team (Wisconsin) instead of a second win over the 18th-ranked team (Minnesota), The elephant in the room, as noted by Doug Lesmerises of The Cleveland Plain Dealer, is figuring out how to judge the Buckeyes:

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The greatest debate in college football is the balance between how the Buckeyes are playing in the last two months vs. the Virginia Tech loss vs. the overall strength of their schedule in the Big Ten. Ohio State is the lynchpin of the playoff at the moment. The debate any more really isn't who will be No. 4.

It's whether Ohio State gets in or not.

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There's no doubt Virginia Tech is a bad loss for Ohio State, but the committee has already come to accept how much the Buckeyes have grown by putting them sixth in the rankings. One more statement win over Wisconsin should be enough to fill the Buckeyes' resume out as one of the four best teams in the country. 

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