MLB Teams Poised to Turn Free-Agent Losses into Big 2015 MLB Draft Gain

Whether you love it or hate it, the implementation of the qualifying offer under Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement has undeniably changed both free agency and the First-Year Player Draft.

For some teams, signing a free agent with a qualifying offer simply isn’t worth sacrificing a future draft pick; for others, it’s incentive to at least consider extending an offer to notable free agents.

This year’s free-agency period has already impacted the 2015 draft, as the New York Mets (No. 15 overall) and Toronto Blue Jays (No. 17) lost their respective first-round picks as a result of signing Michael Cuddyer and Russell Martin. On the flip side, the signings awarded the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates compensatory picks after the first round, giving both teams a better chance to build for the future or add to what’s already in place.

Next year’s draft order has already changed and will continue to over the offseason, albeit subtly, but here’s an early look at several teams poised to turn free-agent losses into draft gains.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are once again poised to make a haul in the early rounds of next year’s First-Year Player Draft thanks to a pair of protected top-10 picks.

After drafting No. 1 overall in each of the last two years, the Astros will have the No. 2 pick in 2015 as compensation for failing to sign 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken. Houston was widely criticized for failing to come to terms with Aiken, a prep left-handed pitcher, due to alleged concerns regarding his physical, and it also prevented the team from signing fifth-rounder Jacob Nix, who had been essentially guaranteed a well-over-slot bonus.

Baseball Prospectus weighed in on the matter in a column at FOX Sports’ Just A Bit Outside:

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While this is not the first time a high draft pick has failed to sign, this is by far the ugliest such incident under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, with the top overall selection and his drafting team disagreeing about an MRI, and a third party (Nix) caught in the fallout. From the failed physical onward, the negotiations were dysfunctional enough to cause the player’s advisor to go public, and to cause the MLBPA to issue a scathing statement after the signing deadline passed.

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However, while Houston’s handling of the Aiken and Nix situations was more or less deplorable, it’s actually given the organization a better chance to make a splash next June.

In addition to the No. 2 pick, the Astros will also have their scheduled first-round pick at No. 5, in theory giving them an opportunity to land two of the premier talents in the 2015 draft.

According to Baseball America:

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The assigned pick values for those slots totaled $10,672,800 in 2014 and their 2015 values will likely exceed $11 million. For context, only one team spent more than $10 million for their entire bonus pool in 2014—the Marlins, who spent $12,741,700, the largest draft bonus expenditure in the three drafts under the current CBA.

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But the Astros’ fun won’t end with the first round.

Round	Slot
First Round	No. 2 (Brady Aiken - unsigned)
First Round	No. 5
Competitive Balance Round A	No. 33
Second Round	No. 42
Third Round	No. 78

Houston secured the first pick (No. 32 overall) in the competitive balance round this past season via a trade with the Marlins and should have at least $1.7 million allotted for that slot based on 2014 value. Meanwhile, the organization also will pick fourth in the second round (No. 42 overall), which had a $1.35 million slot value in 2014.

From Baseball America: "The 2014 draft bonus values of where the Astros will pick in 2015 (based on current slots) totals $16,898,551. Accounting for the year-over-year increase in bonus values and the overages of up to five percent, the Astros could spend around or up to $17 million in the 2015 draft."

With such a large bonus pool, the Astros might not have to cut corners and attempt to save money with their first-round picks as they did in 2012 with Carlos Correa (No. 1 overall) and tried to do this past June with Aiken. On top of that, having the No. 32 and No. 42 overall picks also gives the organization a chance to explore a variety of potential over-slot candidates, or conversely, an opportunity to save additional money for its pair of top-five picks.

Either way, Houston is potentially looking at its best draft in recent memory, which says a lot given some of the impact prospects procured in the last three years.

Plus, with two protected picks (Nos. 2 and 5) in 2015, the Astros are a sleeper candidate to land a big-name free agent this offseason, as signing a player with a qualifying offer would only cost the team its second-round pick.

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

Colorado Rockies

The 2015 draft will be the Colorado Rockies’ fourth straight year with a top-10 overall pick, as they selected outfielder David Dahl (No. 10) in 2012, right-hander Jon Gray (No. 3) in 2013 and left-hander Kyle Freeland (No. 8) this past June.

While none of the aforementioned players has achieved the major league level, they’re each viewed among the best prospects in the minors at their respective positions and expected to be a big part of a Rockies' resurgence in the coming years.

The Rockies will have an opportunity to add to their wave of the future next June courtesy of the No. 3 overall pick—the same slot that netted them the hard-throwing Gray in 2012—essentially guaranteeing them one of the top players in the draft class.

Round	Slot
First Round	No. 3
Compensation Picks	No. 30 (Michael Cuddyer)
Competitive Balance Round A	No. 34
Second Round	No. 40
Third Round	No. 76

However, with three picks in the Nos. 30 to 40 overall range, it can be argued that what Rockies do after the first round is more likely to define their draft.

Colorado recently was awarded the No. 30 overall pick in the 2015 draft as compensation for the Mets signing free agent Michael Cuddyer, who the Rockies had extended a qualify offer at the onset of the offseason.

The Rockies also are slated for early slot in Competitive Balance Round A (currently No. 34 overall), meaning they’ll have two chances to draft a guy who falls into their lap unexpectedly. And with the second pick of the second round (No. 40 overall) to follow, the team should be able to comfortably pursue a variety of promising talents while still reaching for at least at least one high-upside, over-slot player.

Basically, the Rockies having the No. 3 overall pick in next year’s draft as well as three picks just outside the first round that could net them a haul of impact prospects.

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates went eight consecutive years (2006-13) with a top-10 overall draft pick, but their long-overdue success in 2013 had them selecting No. 24 overall this past June, the organization’s lowest first-round pick since 1991.

Well, after claiming a wild-card spot and returning to the postseason, the Pirates, at No. 21 overall, will once again be selecting in the bottom third of the first round next year.

Round	Slot
First Round	No. 21
Compensation Pick	No. 32* (Russell Martin)
Compensation Pick	TBD* (Francisco Liriano)
Second Round	No. 61
Third Round	No. 97

Normally, drafting that late in the first round isn’t of any particular advantage. However, the Pirates recently received the No. 32 pick as compensation for the Blue Jays signing free agent Russell Martin, and they’ll be awarded another comp selection once free agent Francisco Liriano inks a deal.

Therefore, the Pirates are possibly looking at three draft picks within a 10- to 12-slot span in 2015, which should provide them with the flexibility to target high-upside players as well as those with a high probability of achieving the highest level.