SEC Predictions From a Casual Fans Observations

SEC West:

Alabama –

Let me begin this analysis with an analogy:  What Urban Meyer is to offense, Nick Saban is to defense.  This year’s defense will be an absolute monster.  If Bama can find an adequate replacement at FS (the QB of the defense in Saban’s 3-4), then this will be another top 3 defense.  Really, there are minimal questions on that side of the ball and there never will be with Saban in the driver’s seat so I’ll focus on the offense.  Replacing a QB, three OL, two TE, a RB, and one WR is never easy…especially in the SEC.  I may be a homer, but I honestly believe (since last year) that Greg McElroy is a better QB than John Parker Wilson ever was.  He is a product of South Lake Carroll (TX) and was Chase Daniel’s backup until his senior campaign.  Once he took the helm for the Dragons, he broke almost every single season record for TX…yes the high school football capital of the world, TX.  I believe he’ll be an upgrade, besides…he’s throwing to Julio Jones, who can miss that target?  I’ll skip OL for now, and go to TE.  There’s one replacement to be found in GaTech transfer Colin Peek.  He’s an accomplished blocker with pretty good hands.  Opposite him will be Brad Smelley, who last year as a freshman more than showed that he has fly paper on his hands.  The loss of Glenn Coffee at RB will not be a huge blow either because Mark Ingram proved to be a capable back last year.  Add to that, a healthy Roy Upchurch in the rotation (Saban uses a rotation of up to three backs) and the addition of Trent Richardson and I’d say the RB rotation will be more than adequate.  WR, we shall see…but I think there are some guys who can play roles, Bama just needs someone to take the pressure off of Julio Jones and things will be just fine.  On to the OL.  With three guys gone from what was a veteran squad, Bama will need to fill some huge shoes.  Bama addresses that need with one Juco guy in James Carpenter (LT) and two highly rated recruits starting for the first time.  OL will be the only weakness that I see for Bama this year, but only time will tell.  The schedule is manageable, with one early test in VaTech opening night.  The always brutal SEC slate is not too bad with LSU, Arkansas, USC, and UT at home.  However, Bama still has to face Ole Miss, Kentucky, MSU, and Auburn on the road.  Look for a pretty decent showing and a challenge for West supremacy.  Overall prediction: 11-1 probably, but possible 10-2.

Arkansas –

Bobby Petrino’s second year should prove to be a nice improvement over his first.  With a really BIG addition at the QB position in Ryan Mallett, Petrino can open up his humongous playbook and let a little more of that trademark offensive genius show through.  Arkansas looks to have great production from the TE position as well as from the RB position.  The WR’s look to be more productive with one year under their belts in Petrino’s system and a guy who’s not a Dick throwing the ball at them (I could not resist a Dick reference!).  That just about wraps up the positives of this preview and on to the negatives.  Bob Petrino is way more suited to coach a team in the Big 12 than in the SEC where Defense is king.  His teams are known for putting up basketball-like stats on offense and outscoring opponents.  Arkansas’s defense last year was AWFUL….just AWFUL.  There is no other way to describe the monstrosity that was Arkansas defense last year.  They should be vastly improved on the defensive side, but even with a vast improvement, don’t expect a miracle.  I suspect they will still be a terrible defense and will rely on the offense to outscore people.  Add that negative to the fact that their schedule is brutal and you are looking at recipe for a bad season.  They may go bowling this year, which will appease Razorback fans for now; but keep in mind that Bob is looking for another job.  This is not public knowledge, but let’s face it….Bob’s always looking.  Overall prediction:  6-6 maybe 7-5

Auburn –

Auburn will be a better team without Tommy Tubberville…..sure…right…laughable.  Unless Gene Chizik is a transformer and can somehow morph himself into a good coach, they will be terrible again this year.  Auburn has 6 (count em, 6) guys on the cusp of not qualifying from last year’s recruiting class.  What ever happened to recruiting character and “coachin em up”?  Offensively, unless Gus Malzahn can get Kodi Burns a brain transplant, they will be bad.  I predict a 5:1 interception to completion (I didn’t mis-speak) ratio if Burns is the starter.  Burns is not a good QB, he’s a good RB.  Little talked about fact; Malzahn is one of the most pass-happy OCs in the nation.  Chizik wants to be a run-first team….bad choice of OCs.  Auburn has the skill guys at RB/HB to be ok with the right offensive genius to implement a ground and pound offense….again; wrong OC.  Defensively, they should be a decent squad.  Chizik is a good DC and always has been.  Their D will be stout with returning starters at key positions.  The schedule is workable, but like Arkansas, not easy at all.  Expect a 5-7 or a 6-6 season with a bowl not likely for the Plainsmen.

Ole Miss –

I will start a bit backwards on this one and say that Ole Miss’s schedule is a JOKE and absolute JOKE.  This is the most laughable out of conference schedule I have ever see.  Who is the genius that did this?  Really….Memphis (rivalry game???), Southeastern Louisiana (who the hell is that?), and UAB (WOW, nice).  I think they should just start their season with a 3-0 record and not play on those days…it’ll save them some money.  Now, on to the analysis of the team.  Ole Miss is the media spectacle this year and I’d say they earned that title with a late season push last year.  It is an impressive feat to beat the Gators in the Swamp.  Houston Nutt is the ultimate motivator, and it really showed last year.  What people don’t realize is that Ed Orgeron left Nutt with a pantry chock full of top notch players.  Nutt had more talent at his disposal last year than he ever had at Arkansas.  This year, he will waste that talent and underachieve just like he always did at Arkansas.  Ole Miss is staked on offense, but has to replace a first round LT in Michael Orr and will really miss him.  Jevan Snead is a gem of a QB and probably the best proven pocket passer in D1 football this year.  Dexter McCluster is virtually covered in grease and shifty as a water bug.  Add that to Enrique Davis’s brute downhill running (eat your heart out Auburn!), and you have a pretty darn good offense.  Defensively, Ole Miss has one of the best DC’s in the league in Tyrone Nix.  Nix is a very intelligent man, and will have the Rebels solid on that side of the ball.  I’d say that with a different coach and with a team that’s tasted high expectations before, this could be a devastating team….however, Nutt never (and I mean NEVER) does well when he’s expected to.  Add that to Ole Miss’s history of suckage and you have a really disappointing season ahead of the Rebs.  Don’t get me wrong, I would like to see them compete for the West because I like to see a underdog story just like the next guy.  However, I also am rational and I can read fortunes (bet you didn’t know that, did you?).  Looking into my crystal ball, I see Ole Miss’s talent laden team losing at least 2 games that they are not supposed to.  Overall prediction:  Worst case, 8-5; Best case 10-2.

Miss State –

Poor Dan Mullen….poor, poor Dan Mullen.  Mississippi State is the consummate doormat of the SEC.  I don’t see that status changing much this year.  I will say that, should he find a decent QB that’s not 5’10”, MSU will at least compete a little better than in previous years just because of the system.  With that said, they are still going to suck in every sense of the word.  It will be interesting to see how many games Mullen suspends Anthony Dixon for (DUI).  Mullen’s predecessor, Sly Croom, was a very tough disciplinarian and would likely have dismissed the young man from the team.  Mullen, I fear may not be quite the tough guy and will have to try very hard to not let those inmates run his asylum.  Offensively, MSU will have to struggle much like any team does with a new regime and a new system.  Look for many, many mistakes and lots of penalties for petty things like false starts and illegal formations, etc.  When a team has to resort to gimmicks like blackouts and maroon outs to garner interest, it generally ain’t good.  I honestly cannot see this team winning very many games this year.  Defensively, MSU has a chance to be ok…at best.  Pulling a veteran like Carl Torbush into the mix was a good choice by Dan Mullen, but again…this is Mississippi State here!  Overall, this is a gimme year for Mullen and MSU, and I hope the guy does well enough to get a better job.  MSU will continue to be a bad team that beats someone it’s not supposed to every now and then.  Record for this year; 4-8, 5-7 at best.

LSU –

One word…STACKED.  Leslie Miles (I prefer to use his full name because it’s girlie) and LSU have been a recruiting juggernaut for years (thanks Nick Saban for starting that trend).  Last year’s team imploded on defense without Bo Pelini at the helm.  This year, veteran John Chavis takes over and will have LSU right back to being a very tough, attacking D.  Defensively, they are sound and extremely talented.  The defense last year had a tough assignment due to the lack of offensive production.  The O typically put the D in a terrible spot with awful field position often after a turnover.  This year’s offense looks to be much improved.  Gary Crowton is a really, really good OC.  Last year’s QB production sucked.  There was no QB after Ryan Perilloux was kicked out of the program (piss poor recruiting there, Leslie!).  That issue should be resolved this year with Jordan Jefferson at the reigns.  He has shown that he is adequate to run Crowton’s offense:  see last year’s bowl game.  He will have to fight off newcomer Russell Sheppard, who is very talented.  I look for Sheppard to be used situationally in some sort of a Wildcat-like package due to his speed and ability to make people miss.  The one thing that I think Crowton will need to do this year, however is rely more on Charles Scott.  This guy is a stud RB.  He’s huge, he’s got decent speed, and he’s determined to get that extra yard.  The only real negative for LSU is that Les Miles remains their coach.  With this man at the helm, I can guarantee at least 2 losses per year because of stupidity.  LSU’s season will probably look better than last year; look for a 9-3 to a 10-2, maybe even an 11-1 season.

SEC East:

Florida –

If I can only describe LSU as STACKED, what can I say about UF?  Even more stacked thank LSU.  Think about this for a minute:  You just won the National Title Game by shutting down the most prolific offense in history (60 or more points on 5 opponents) with a stifling defense.  You then remember “Oh yea, all of those guys that just shut down the Sooners are Juniors or below…and they will all be back next year.”  That, my friends is why the Florida team is going to be very very very very good (emphasis on VERY!).  You can add to that the fact that their starting QB is probably going to go down in history as the single greatest to ever play college football.  No, I didn’t stutter, nor am I a Tim Tebow homer…I speak the truth.  Urban Meyer is of the philosophy that speed kills, and until someone proves him wrong…I think his teams are going to run everyone off of the field.  UF was challenged, I mean really challenged, twice last year.  Ole Miss beat them in the Swamp by forcing turnovers (some would say it had the effect of rattling the bear’s cage).  Then, in the SEC Championship, UA had them very confused and downright out schemed for most of the game.  Were it not for Superman himself using his laser gun accuracy to convert 3^rd down after 3^rd down, the Gators may have watched the BCS Championship from the comfort of home.  Urban Meyer is a taskmaster, let’s all face the music and say that when given enough time…he will out plan almost any coach in football today.  Combine that with one of the best DC’s in the nation in Charlie Strong, a HUGE backing by AD Jeremy Foley (all the facilities he could ever dream of), and the recruiting Mecca of the US in Florida (where kids chase rabbits through mud fields to work on speed) and you have the perfect storm of football in Gainesville.  Urban couldn’t have it any better this year.  He has a wonderful problem to have; all he has to do is keep his kids from beating themselves and he’s right back in the BCS title game for the third time in four years.  There is only one weakness on this entire team, and it’s in the WR corps.  Should Riley Cooper leave for MLB stardom, there will not be much experience left.  Did I say that was a weakness?  Whoops, I forgot that Urban has a penchant for finding really good freshmen to contribute.  I’d say that the only teams with even a chance to knock off UF this year will be LSU (in season) or Bama (SEC Championship).  I say that the Gators end this season either 11-1 or 12-0.

Georgia –

After losing the first pick (QB) in the draft and another first round pick at RB, most teams will find it hard to rebound.  The one place that people don’t give Richt credit is in recruiting.  Mark Richt has talent really pooled up in Athens.  I believe that Joe Cox will be an adequate replacement for Matt Stafford.  He won’t really be a game changer, but a decent QB.  After all, all he has to do is get the ball close to AJ Green and he’ll catch it.  UGA just needs to find a replacement for Mohammed Massaquoi to take the double teams away from him.  The Dawgs are loaded at RB, with several guys lined up to take over for Knowshon Mareno.  I believe Richt will have a running back by committee approach this year with the bulk of the carries going to Caleb King.  Look for a load of the carries to fall on Richard Samuel and Carlton Thomas though in this loaded backfield.  UGA returns a great deal of their OL that was depleted by injury last year.  The key to the Dawgs offense lies in whether or not they can stay healthy.  The Dawg Defense will be better this year than last.  Rennie Curran will be a household name before the season is over, and the defensive backfield is pretty tough too.  Willie Martinez needs to redeem himself or he may be looking for another job (though, I doubt it…Richt doesn’t have the guts to fire anyone!).  Overall prediction:  could be as good as 9-3, but more likely to be around 8-4.

South Carolina –

Coach Spurrier’s curtain call will be another lousy season.  Poor guy just picked a terrible school to end his career with.  If Lou Holtz and Steve Spurrier cannot win in Columbia, no one can.  Spurrier will have a tough time with Garcia at QB, since Spurrier can never decide on one QB.  The huge problem with Garcia is that there is no one there to back him up and the fact that he is not a proven QB.  You can add that to the lack of talent on this team and see where I am headed here.  I think it’s a crying shame that the Ole Ball Coach is reduced to this sort of crappy existence (If you can’t tell, I’m a big Spurrier fan!).  The defense will have to carry this team, much like the last few seasons.  Spurrier did mix things up a little with the addition of 6 (I believe) new coaches in Columbia.  These additions, however, do not change the losses at key positions for the Gamecocks (QB, RB, OL, entire defensive backfield, LB, the list continues).  Tone for the season will be set after the first game, where the Gamecocks play a tough Thursday night game with NC State.  Overall prediction:  6-6, 8-4 at absolute best.

Vanderbilt –

Bobby Johnson is a miracle worker.  This man has taken a smart bunch of smart kids and made a decent football team out of them.  I will not spend a ton of time on Vandy, as I am pretty sure you can make your own assumptions here.  Vandy was terrible on offense last year and pretty darn good on defense.  If they can find some way to move the ball on O, and replace key losses on D…they’ll be back to around 6 wins this year.  The only thing standing in their way is the schedule, which is pretty tough.  I see losses to LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Georgia Tech, UF, and Kentucky.  Toss-up games are Miss State, USCarolina, UT.  Overall prediction 5-7 probably, maybe even 4-8.

Tennessee –

Phil Fulmer is gone.  He took with him all of the class (HAHAHAHAHAHAHA) that UT football had.  Since UT had very little class to begin with, I will say that there is negative class there now.  Can you tell how much I loathe Tennessee?  Hiring Lane Kiffin is like handing a football to a monkey and asking him to reproduce with it….neither have a freaking clue what to do with what they have been handed but they both jump around and make a lot of noise.  Monte Kiffin will ensure that a pretty good defense is at UT as long as he doesn’t die between now and the start of the season (wonder what the Vegas odds are on that scenario?).  Eric Berry is a very talented football player.  He will, no doubt, be a first round pick.  At least they have that going for them.  Given what Lane Kiffin has returning on offense, I would think he’d be best served by making a trip to Atlanta to see Paul Johnson.  UT should probably try to run the flexbone this year.  They have no QB, all their receivers are either hurt or in jail (or headed that way), and the O-line is paper thin.  I think a backfield with Bryce Brown (primadonna), Montario Hardesty, and either Tauren Poole or Toney Williams would be decent with the flexbone (with no QB, maybe one can line up and take the snaps).  Tennessee has no chance to make a bowl this year (I honestly believe this).  They will lose to most teams on their schedule.  Possible wins:  Ohio, Auburn, Memphis, and maybe (really maybe) Vandy.  This will be a disappointing year to be a Vol.  Overall prediction:  4-8 maybe 5-7 (slim chance).

Kentucky -

Rich Brooks deserves a statue in Lexington.  This man has managed to make Kentucky football relevant.  Relevant here is a relevant word (you like how I played that, don’t you?).  Relevance in Kentucky means that you make some bowl games and you are mentioned on the local news in conjunction with basketball.  The issue here is that there’s a new guy in Lexington garnering a lot of attention (some guy named Calipari or something).  I believe this will mark the end of the Rich Brooks era at UK and the beginning of the Joker Phillips era.  Rich will fade off into the sunset after this season (which will not be a terrible season by any means).  The Kentucky offense last year relied on a WR/QB in order to move the ball.  I believe this year will have to be better (have to have faith in Joker – I mean come on, the man’s name alone screams awesomeness!).  Kentucky always has a salty Defense and this year will be no different.  I apologize for the short analysis, but I just don’t know, or care, much about Kentucky football.  I respect Rich Brooks for being football’s Ty Cobb (meanest SOB alive) and for his “creative” use of the English and French (cursing) languages, but it’s just not big-time football.  The one thing that I can pontificate on (yes, I just used pontificate!) is the schedule.  UK’s schedule is really pretty nice for them.  The two really tough games are at home (Bama and UF), and the only really tough road game will be at UGA.  I’d say they can easily go 8-4, but I will stick with 7-5 as my most likely scenario.