Biggest Winners and Losers from 1st Month of 2014-15 Season
The first month of the 2014-15 NBA season featured no shortage of overachievers and underperformers.
The race to the top of the Western Conference is already shaping up to be a bloodbath, while the Eastern Conference is chock-full of sub-.500 teams. LeBron James and the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers have stumbled out of the gate, yet their three biggest threats in the East—the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls—all look just as formidable as expected.
It's still far too early to predict how the championship picture and major award races will unfold, as one ill-timed injury could completely obliterate those prognostications. It's not too early, however, to look back at the biggest winners and losers from the first month of the season.
What separates these winners and losers from the rest of the pack? There isn't one universal set of criteria for all of them, unfortunately. The winners have shattered even their wildest of preseason expectations, while many of the losers are falling short of the most negative predictions.
Though there's plenty of time for the high-risers and low-fallers to regress to the mean, here's a look at who emerged as a top winner or loser through the first month of the 2014-15 season.
Winner: Jimmy Butler
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Here's hoping Jimmy Butler has an empty swimming pool at his house. He'll need it to store the truckloads of money he's set to receive next summer as a free agent.
The Chicago Bulls swingman declined the team's last extension offer—rumored to be in four-year, $40 million-plus range, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times—in favor of becoming a restricted free agent following this season. To date, that gamble has paid dividends for Butler, who has been one of the season's breakout stars.
With Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson all battling injury woes early in the season, Butler has been the Bulls' rock after missing the first two games of the year. He's shattering his previous career highs, averaging 21.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists while shooting 50.0 percent from the floor.
Recently, head coach Tom Thibodeau showered Butler with praise, via Cowley:
"I mean, [Butler has] been incredible. He's a star. And he does it on both ends of the floor. He's an amazing player.
We've had him play the point, we’ve had him play the 2, the 3, and [in the loss Tuesday against the Nuggets], he played the 4, and he hasn't had any opportunity to practice the 4. He's smart; he’s tough; he does whatever the team needs.
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As Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal recently wrote, Butler and Klay Thompson—the latter of whom just received a four-year max-contract extension in October—are emerging as the clear future of the shooting guard position. So long as Butler maintains his hot start, the Bulls are going to regret not inking him to a below-max deal when they had the chance.
Loser: Cleveland's Defense
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Heading into 2014-15, it was no secret that the Cleveland Cavaliers would be far stronger offensively than defensively. While they have a bevy of elite-scoring options—LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are all more than capable of pouring in points—they lack any semblance of a rim-stopper.
One month into the season, we might have underestimated just how dismal Cleveland would be on that end of the court.
Through 14 games, the Cavaliers allowed opponents to score 104.4 points per 100 possessions, the 14th-worst mark in the league. Their foes are converting 56.0 percent of their looks at the net, which trails just five teams, and despite touting one of the NBA's best board-gobblers in Love, the Cavs are just 24th in rebounds per contest (41.6).
Most alarmingly, there's no immediate relief coming for James and Co. Unless Anderson Varejao or Tristan Thompson sprout four inches overnight, the Cavs won't have a Roy Hibbert or Joakim Noah-esque presence in the paint to deter opponents from driving repeatedly toward the rim.
Cleveland's defensive rotations should only grow more cohesive with time, which should help this squad eventually become respectable on defense. However, given that nine of the past 10 NBA champions had top-10 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley, the Cavs' status as title favorites already appears to be in grave jeopardy.
Winner: Sacramento Kings Fans
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Just 18 months ago, Sacramento Kings fans had to worry about losing their franchise to Seattle. Now, with the Kings' future in Sacramento secure, their fanbase is rooting for perhaps the Western Conference's biggest early-season surprise.
The Kings have won 28 or fewer games in each of the past six years, becoming a constant fixture at the NBA draft lottery each May. This season, thanks to DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Darren Collison, they appear poised to potentially secure the franchise's first winning record since 2005-06.
Cousins has been nothing short of an animal this season, posting career-high averages in scoring (23.5), rebounding (12.6), shot blocking (1.5) and field-goal percentage (.512). Unsurprisingly, that's led to him posting a career-best player efficiency rating (27.9) and win shares per 48 minutes (.224), and he's leading the league in total-rebound percentage (22.9), too.
Both Gay and Collison are establishing new personal bests in PER and win shares per 48 minutes as well, helping justify the new contracts each inked with the Kings within the past six months. Combined, those two and Cousins are accounting for nearly 60 percent of Sacramento's scoring output, 50 percent of its rebounding and 70 percent of the team's assists.
Suddenly, the Kings have transformed from Western Conference afterthoughts into a legitimate playoff contender. The brutality of the West is the only thing that will keep them out of the postseason—they'd currently be tied with Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the East—but after years of mediocrity, Sacramento fans should consider this frisky competitiveness as a true sign of progress.
Loser: Philadelphia 76ers Fans
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Isn't it bad enough that Philadelphia 76ers fans have to endure watching an inexperienced team stocked with D-League would-bes stumble their way to an endless stream of losses? Apparently not.
Though a number of Sixers fans remain on board with general manager Sam Hinkie's tanktastic plans, the side effects are becoming increasingly more difficult to ignore. Both the local and national media deserve a great deal of the blame for that.
Locally, columnists are openly flouting Hinkie as a mad scientist who took his grand experiment one step too far. Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News described the culture Hinkie has created as "toxic," while WIP's Howard Eskin tweeted that Hinkie doesn't have basketball IQ and is "just a numbers guy."
Nationally, Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe started a mind-numbing week-long discussion about whether this year's iteration of the Kentucky Wildcats—a squad stocked with future NBA prospects—could beat the current Sixers. Anyone who thought the prospect was played out a few years ago, when the same question was raised about Kentucky and the then-Charlotte Bobcats, was sorely mistaken.
NBA.com's David Aldridge spoke to a number of Philly's season ticket holders, many of whom expressed frustration with having to shell out hard-earned dollars for such an egregiously bad squad. The Sixers rank 29th in home attendance this season, per ESPN.com, attracting just over 14,000 fans per game, and that number could begin falling as the losses mount at a historic pace.
In a few years' time, there's a reasonable chance the Sixers develop into an Eastern Conference powerhouse, allowing fans to look back on this season and laugh about the absurdity of the entire situation. In the interim, however, the Philadelphia fanbase has very little hope to draw upon when attending a game.
Winner: The 'Eliminate Conferences' Argument
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On Nov. 24, SB Nation's Tom Ziller delivered an impassioned argument to end the concept of conferences when it comes to playoff seeding, citing the longstanding disparity between Western Conference and Eastern Conference teams:
"The West's best lottery team had a better record than the East's worst playoff team in 10 of the past 12 seasons. On average, the West No. 9 has four more wins than the East No. 8. And remember that none of this takes into account that East teams play more games (52) against the inferior conference than do West teams (30).
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The conference imbalance appears to be an issue yet again this season, as through Nov. 23 only one Western Conference squad had a losing record against Eastern Conference opponents (the injury-ravaged Oklahoma City Thunder), per Ziller. The West currently touts 11 teams either .500 or better, while the East has just six.
"In the West, every night you're playing against a team that could possibly be in the Finals," Phoenix Suns coach Jeff Hornacek recently told Eric Koreen of the National Post. "It's not just those top seven or eight teams you're worried about anymore. It's 10, 11 of them."
That's not just hyperbole from a coach whose team—which is currently three games over .500—is on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff race. Beyond the eight teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, Phoenix and the New Orleans Pelicans are both legitimate threats, and Oklahoma City will be once Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook return from injuries, too.
If a 50-win West team misses the playoffs this year, while a sub-40-win East team qualifies as the No. 8 seed, the "eliminate conferences" argument will only gain more team. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver should be keeping a close eye on the conference imbalance as the season progresses.
Loser: Oklahoma City's Playoff Chances
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When Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook went down with injuries in the preseason and early in the regular season, respectively, the Oklahoma City Thunder's playoffs hopes were dealt a serious blow. The Thunder tried to put a positive spin on the loss of their two stars, however, suggesting the experience their complementary pieces gained would only benefit the team in the postseason.
There's just one problem: At this rate, OKC might not even make it there.
In the absence of Durant, the Thunder have scuffled to a 4-12 record, putting them a full six games behind the Phoenix Suns for the Western Conference's last playoff spot. Seven of the eight West teams that made last year's postseason finished with at least 50 wins, which would require OKC to go 46-20 (.697) the rest of the way.
"I've been putting some thought into that lately," head coach Scott Brooks told reporters following his team's Nov. 23 loss to the Golden State Warriors. "The way I look at it, it sets us up for a heck of a ride during the regular season. I've always been a positive guy."
As The Washington Post's Michael Lee noted, the Thunder have a .688 winning percentage (243-110) with Durant and Westbrook in the lineup since the 2009-10 season, making a playoff push still within the realm of possibility. However, the 1994-95 Houston Rockets were the lowest-seeded team to ever win the title (sixth), per Lee, further casting doubt over OKC's postseason potential.
Grantland's Zach Lowe summed up the challenge facing the Thunder thusly: "Getting to the Finals from any seed in the West is the equivalent of facing three straight video game bosses. Coming from No. 7 or No. 8 is like starting that journey with half your health." If OKC can't overcome that tremendous challenge, the chatter surrounding Durant's impending 2016 free agency will become thunderous.
Winner: Anthony Davis' MVP Candidacy
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On the first night of the 2014-15 season, TNT analyst Charles Barkley dubbed Anthony Davis as "the next superstar in the NBA." One month in, the New Orleans Pelicans big man has done nothing but prove Barkley prescient.
Davis wasted little time kicking off his Most Valuable Player campaign, eviscerating the Orlando Magic on opening night to the tune of 26 points, 17 rebounds and an eye-popping nine blocked shots. He's currently shattering his career-high averages in scoring (25.4), rebounding (11.2), shot-blocking (3.4), steals (2.1), assists (1.8) and field-goal percentage (.565), and that's somehow only the tip of the iceberg.
Not only is Davis leading the league in PER (34.4) and win shares (3.1), he's also threatening to smash Wilt Chamberlain's all-time PER record, 31.8, set back in 1962-63 with the then-San Francisco Warriors. Frankly, the fact the Kentucky product is doing this at just 21 years of age makes him perhaps the league's most terrifying prospect in the past decade.
As Bleacher Report's Thomas Duffy noted, the Pelicans' record is just about the only thing that can hold Davis back from seizing control of the MVP race. In the past 15 years, no MVP has played for a team that finished worse than fourth in the league-wide standings, per Pro Basketball Talk's Brett Pollakoff, which will be a tall task for New Orleans in the cutthroat Western Conference.
If the Pelicans do somehow manage to win 50-plus games, Davis' statistical dominance may be too difficult for MVP voters to ignore. Even if he doesn't win the award this season, he's a near-certainty to finish among the top five in voting, setting the stage for a Brow takeover in the years to come.
Loser: Andre Drummond's Breakout Year
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When Stan Van Gundy took over as the Detroit Pistons head coach, many NBA observers viewed it as an undeniable positive for Andre Drummond. Based on what SVG accomplished with Dwight Howard in Orlando, Drummond appeared to be on the precipice of a breakout year.
So far, Drummond's transformation into a Howard-esque monster is very much a work in progress. He's shooting a career-worst 44.2 percent from the floor—his previous career low was 60.8 percent, set back in his rookie season—while averaging 10.2 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.
Grantland's Zach Lowe explained the root of Drummond's offensive struggles:
"Drummond’s a powerful dude, but he’s not really using his power to back guys down closer to the rim. Bad news: Drummond can’t hit anything outside of dunk range. He’s shooting 55 percent within three feet of the basket, but just 22 percent in that tricky area between three and 10 feet from the rim—the jump-hook and floater zone.
He barely shot from there last season, but nearly a third of his attempts under Van Gundy have come from that range, per Basketball-Reference.
Drummond just isn’t comfortable with this stuff yet, which isn’t surprising. He’s dependent on one move, and opponents have scouted it by now. He hurries, and you get the sense he doesn’t have a precise idea of where exactly the rim is when he flings up his shot.
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Foul trouble is also limiting the Pistons big man's effectiveness, as he's averaging a career-high 3.7 personal fouls in just 29.3 minutes per game. "Right now, he's half-a-step slow on a lot of plays and that's simply a learning curve," Van Gundy told Vincent Goodwill Jr. of The Detroit News, citing a new defensive scheme as part of Drummond's problem.
There's little question the third-year UConn product will progress as he grows more comfortable with Van Gundy and vice versa. Those expecting Drummond to hit the ground running under SVG, however, can't help but be sorely disappointed.
Winner: Jason Kidd's Coaching Chops
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Jason Kidd's debut last season as an NBA head coach didn't exactly go according to plan. The built-to-win-now Brooklyn Nets reached the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they proved no match for the two-time defending champion Miami Heat, falling in five games.
Things devolved quickly from there, with Kidd ultimately forcing his way out of Brooklyn to join the Milwaukee Bucks. Though his coaching chops came into question with the elder Nets last season, Kidd has done a masterful job rebuilding Milwaukee on the fly, already bringing the squad within six games of its 2013-14 win total before the calendar turned to December.
Point guard Brandon Knight appears to have especially taken kindly to his former floor general of a coach, as he's in the midst of a career-best year. The fourth-year Kentucky product is averaging new personal highs in points (18.0), assists (6.2), rebounds (4.9), steals (1.4), three-pointers (1.8) and field-goal percentage (.437), along with PER (19.2) and win shares per 48 minutes (.142).
Bucks general manager John Hammond explained to Sean Deveney of Sporting News what makes Kidd such a good fit with this young Bucks roster:
"I think he is enjoying it. I think it is not only because we have been competitive as we sit here today, but I think no matter what happens throughout the season, I think he is enjoying having a chance to coach the young players.
I think he loves to watch those guys develop, he is continuing to develop as a coach, he has a young staff. There is a great synergy there between Jason and this young team.
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The Bucks might fall out of the playoff race as the season wears on, but Kidd's fit with this roster is undeniable. Milwaukee may have snagged one of the summer's biggest steals by sending two second-round picks to Brooklyn for him.
Loser: Byron Scott's Lakers Tenure
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New Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott raised eyebrows in the preseason when he openly flouted the value of three-pointers.
"Our game plan is really to get to that basket," Scott told reporters in early October. "I like the fact that we only shot 10 threes [against the Denver Nuggets in their preseason opener]. If we shoot between 10 and 15, I think that's a good mixture of getting to that basket and shooting threes."
Through their first 15 games, the Lakers are largely following Scott's plan to a T. They're averaging just 16.9 three-pointers per game—the fifth fewest of any team—and are shooting only 29.9 percent from deep, the second-worst mark in the league.
According to Mark Medina of the New York Daily News, Scott recently held a "state of the union meeting" with general manager Mitch Kupchak, which the coach described as "a meeting about the team in general." In all likelihood, that meeting wasn't exactly pleasant for Scott, whose offseason proclamations about focusing on defensive intensity have been all for naught.
The Lakers are dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score 113.7 points per 100 possessions, are last in points per game allowed (110.8) and rank 29th in defensive field-goal percentage (.484). Combined with their three-point deficiencies, it's pretty clear why the Lakers have fallen to 3-12 in their first 15 games, the worst record in the West.
Ultimately, Scott appears to be little more than a sacrificial lamb in L.A. He might survive the year with the Lakers, but given how pathetic the team has looked to date, there's virtually no chance he'll be featured in the franchise's long-term rebuilding plans.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are current through Thursday, Nov. 27.
