College Football Playoff Standings: Week 13 Rankings and Bowl Game Projections
Just like that, there are two weeks left in the 2014 college football season. The postseason picture is becoming clearer as November begins to fold into December. While the playoff field still has to be figured out, bowl pictures are starting to take form.
Here's how the two major Top 25 polls looked after Week 13. The following slides contain bowl projections heading into Week 14. Click on the links below to view the latest College Football Playoff, Associated Press and USA Today Top 25 polls.
New Orleans Bowl
1 of 39
Dec. 20, New Orleans: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Fresno State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
ULL running back Elijah McGuire leads a rushing attack that averages 5.3 yards per carry and 219 yards per game. Fresno State gives up nearly five yards a carry. This is a de facto home game for ULL, so the Ragin' Cajuns get it done.
Expect lots of points on a fast track indoors. The defense that can make just a couple more stops will be the difference.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Projected Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
New Mexico Bowl
2 of 39
Dec. 20, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: San Diego State vs. Marshall
If Marshall can't make it to a top-tier bowl, the Herd are bound for an early postseason game. The Herd have been blowing out opponents regularly with the exception of last week's win over UAB. With quarterback Rakeem Cato, Marshall's offense is a well-oiled machine.
San Diego State isn't an offensive juggernaut and the Aztecs' best chances of winning are keeping opponents in tight, low-scoring games. That doesn't happen with Marshall.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Marshall
Las Vegas Bowl
3 of 39
Dec. 20, Las Vegas: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Stanford vs. Colorado State
It's been a disappointing season for Stanford, but the Cardinal do have the best scoring defense in the Pac-12 by a touchdown. It's the offense that has been a liability, and Stanford has not been great in close games.
Colorado State is the opposite, with a powerful and balanced offense led by a Biletnikoff finalist, wide receiver Rashard Higgins. Can the Rams score against the Cardinal defense?
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Stanford
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
4 of 39
Dec. 20, Boise, Idaho: MAC vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Akron vs. Utah State
Looking for the best defense in the Mountain West? Look no further than Utah State, which is No. 1 in points allowed (18.3) and yards per rush (3.05) and No. 2 in yards per pass attempt (6.4).
Akron can rack up some yards through the air, but the Zips haven't been able to score consistently. This is a bad matchup.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Utah State
Camellia Bowl
5 of 39
Dec. 20, Montgomery, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Dino Babers' first year as Bowling Green's head coach could have gone poorly because of the season-ending hip injury to quarterback Matt Johnson. However, the Falcons are still 7-3 and have an offense that averages 32 points per game.
However, Louisiana Tech can at least make a stop on defense while the Falcons still give up just under 32 points a game. The lack of a defense for Bowling Green has already proved costly and will again.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech
Miami Beach Bowl
6 of 39
Dec. 22, Miami: BYU vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: BYU vs. Memphis
Memphis doesn't have the most powerful offense, but the Tigers do have the best defense in points allowed per game in the American Athletic Conference (17.7). BYU has been able to rebound from its four-game skid after quarterback Taysom Hill suffered a season-ending leg injury.
This has the potential to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, but the advantage goes to the Tigers' stiffing defense.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Memphis
Boca Raton Bowl
7 of 39
Dec. 23, Boca Raton, Florida: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: UAB vs. Central Michigan
Central Michigan running back Thomas Rawls has had a great year up until the past few weeks while being hampered with a knee injury. Fully healthy, he runs through a UAB defense that gives up 4.5 yards per rush.
The Blazers were able to give Marshall a run for the Herd's money in Week 13 before coming up just short. If Central Michigan can run the ball on UAB, it's going to be tough for the Blazers to close out the game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Central Michigan
Poinsettia Bowl
8 of 39
Dec. 23, San Diego: Navy vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Navy vs. Nevada
Obviously, Navy can rack up yards on the ground, but Nevada is capable of going toe-to-toe with the Midshipmen on offense.
Wolf Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo is a one-man show who leads the offense in passing and rushing. Nevada has to slow down Navy's triple option; the Midshipmen have to stop Fajardo. We'll say the Wolf Pack has the edge.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Nevada
Bahamas Bowl
9 of 39
Dec. 24, Nassau, Bahamas: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo
Toledo is an exciting team in that it racks up a lot of rushing yards (254 per game) and points (33 per game), but also gives up a lot of points. In many ways, Middle Tennessee is the same way—the Blue Raiders score a lot and get scored on just as much.
With both teams scoring in the 30s and allowing points in the 30s, this has shootout written all over it.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Toledo
Hawai'i Bowl
10 of 39
Dec. 24, Honolulu: Conference USA vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: UTEP vs. Air Force
There's no secret that Air Force is going to run the ball. The Falcons rank eighth in the country with 275 yards per game. The problem is that UTEP is one of the worst teams against the run in Conference USA, giving up nearly five yards a rush.
This feels like a terrible matchup for the Miners and a recipe for a blowout.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Air Force
Heart of Dallas Bowl
11 of 39
Dec. 26, Dallas: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: Rutgers vs. Rice
Rutgers' passing offense has been sparked by new offensive coordinator and former Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen. Rice, on the other hand, gives up 7.4 yards per attempt and has allowed 23 passing touchdowns.
If Scarlet Knights quarterback Gary Nova can protect the ball, Rutgers should have enough offense to win.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Rutgers
Quick Lane Bowl
12 of 39
Dec. 26, Detroit: Big Ten vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Northwestern vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Western Michigan is easily one of the most improved teams from a year ago. The Broncos have the top scoring offense in the MAC and the team's leading passer (Zach Terrell), rusher (Jarvion Franklin) and receiver (Corey Davis) are freshmen and sophomores.
Speaking of youth, 33-year-old head coach P.J. Fleck could move up the coaching ladder sooner rather than later.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Western Michigan
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
13 of 39
Dec. 26, St. Petersburg, Florida: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Central Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Central Florida quarterback Justin Holman against Virginia Tech's pass defense will be the matchup to watch. The Hokies have perhaps the best player on the field in cornerback Kendall Fuller.
Virginia Tech has had zero luck with injuries at the running back spot, which means it could be up to quarterback Michael Brewer to carry the offense. However, Virginia Tech managed just one field goal, in overtime no less, in a 6-3 loss to Wake Forest.
Even a little bit of offense from UCF should be enough.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: UCF
Military Bowl
14 of 39
Dec. 27, Annapolis, Maryland: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: East Carolina vs. North Carolina State
North Carolina State quarterback Jacoby Brissett is probably the best player on the field—or, at least, the guy with the biggest impact. However, it's tough to go against the quarterback-receiver combo of Shane Carden and Justin Hardy at East Carolina.
Both teams are sliding down the stretch of the season, but East Carolina's big-play potential in the passing game is a difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: East Carolina
Sun Bowl
15 of 39
Dec. 27, El Paso, Texas: ACC vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Louisville vs. Utah
Utah has been a defense-first team all season, but the Utes have given up 32.3 points per game in the month of November while the offense has remained stale. That's a bad combination.
Louisville appears to be fine with Reggie Bonnafon at quarterback while Will Gardner is out for the year with a knee injury. As long as the offense doesn't have an awful game, the Cardinals have enough defense to keep this one comfortable.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Louisville
Independence Bowl
16 of 39
Dec. 27, Shreveport, Louisiana: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Miami vs. LSU
This game is running backs galore. Miami's Duke Johnson vs. LSU's stable of powerful running backs: Which one has the edge?
The Hurricanes definitely have the edge in quarterback play with freshman Brad Kaaya. So long as Miami can slow LSU's running attack, it has a good chance to win.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Miami
Pinstripe Bowl
17 of 39
Dec. 27, Bronx, New York: ACC vs. Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Boston College vs. Penn State
If you like defense—or, rather, hate offense—then this is the game for you. And seeing as it will take place in New York in late December, your sick fantasy of a 9-6 final score in cruddy conditions is very much a possibility.
Protection has been shaky for Penn State up front all season, but the Nittany Lions have arguably the Big Ten's best defense. Watching Boston College's O-line push Florida State around last weekend for 240 yards was impressive. This'll be a battle in the trenches.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Boston College
Holiday Bowl
18 of 39
Dec. 27, San Diego: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Nebraska vs. USC
USC has a ton of offensive playmakers, from Nelson Agholor and Juju Smith in the passing game to Buck Allen in the ground attack. Nebraska has given up some big yards against the run lately, most notably against Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin.
Huskers running back Ameer Abdullah should be 100 percent healthy by the time bowl games start, but is he able to carry Nebraska's offense?
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: USC
Liberty Bowl
19 of 39
Dec. 29, Memphis, Tennessee: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: West Virginia vs. Texas A&M
West Virginia's Kevin White is one of the best receivers in the country, which could mean a long day for Texas A&M's pass defense. However, the Mountaineers are a mistake-prone football team and one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin.
Texas A&M is not a team you want to be giving easy chances to. That's the difference in the outcome.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Texas A&M
Russell Athletic Bowl
20 of 39
Dec. 29, Orlando, Florida: Big 12 vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Kansas State vs. Clemson
Clemson's athletic defensive line, highlighted by pass rusher Vic Beasley, is the perfect test for Kansas State's offensive line. The Wildcats are best when running the ball, but last week's win over West Virginia proved they could move the ball through the air.
K-State has the Big 12's best scoring defense at 21 points per game and Clemson's ability to move the ball will depend on the status of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been banged up this year.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Kansas State
Texas Bowl
21 of 39
Dec. 29, Houston: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Texas vs. Arkansas
Any remaining fans of the old Southwest Conference would like this game. Two teams that have built a lot of momentum as the season ends duel it out in a hard-hitting, low-scoring, throwback game.
Texas is known for its defense and Arkansas is known for its punishing running attack. This feels about as even as it comes in regards to bowl matchups.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Arkansas
Music City Bowl
22 of 39
Dec. 30, Nashville, Tennessee: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Florida vs. Duke
The only thing Florida does well offensively is run the ball, but the Gators are picking up 197 yards per game on the ground in the process. Unfortunately for Duke, the Blue Devils have an awful time trying to stop the run and have given up at least 200 yards in six games this year.
It's a low-scoring, ugly game, but that's the way Florida can win.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Florida
Belk Bowl
23 of 39
Dec. 30, Charlotte, North Carolina: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Turnovers have been lethal for Notre Dame, but injuries and attrition on defense have hit this team just as hard, if not more so. The latest injuries are to defensive tackle Jarron Jones (foot) and safety Drue Tranquill (ACL) and are season-ending.
If South Carolina can get running back Mike Davis going, it could be another long afternoon for the Irish.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: South Carolina
Foster Farms Bowl
24 of 39
Dec. 30, Santa Clara, California: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Iowa vs. Arizona
Arizona's 42-10 rout over Utah was as impressive an offensive game as the Wildcats have had all season. At nearly 300 yards per game, Arizona's passing game is 15th in the country. Iowa has shown flashes of being able to throw the ball down the field, most recently for 311 yards against Wisconsin.
When Arizona scores 27 points or more in a game, it's 8-0. If points start racking up, give me the Wildcats.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Arizona
Peach Bowl
25 of 39
Dec. 31, Atlanta: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Georgia vs. Boise State
Picking a group-of-five team for a major bowl has been tough since there's no clear favorite. However, as ESPN's Heather Dinich writes, Boise State appears to have the inside track:
"Marshall is ranked No. 19 in the latest Associated Press poll, followed by No. 21 Colorado State and No. 25 Boise State. This is the first time since Week 10, when East Carolina was ranked in the selection committee's first Top 25, that the Group of 5 has been represented in the CFP rankings.
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That would make Boise State the frontrunner to represent the Group of 5 in a New Year's Six Bowl.
The main question is whether the Broncos could stop Georgia's rushing attack, led by freshman Nick Chubb. If the depth chart behind Chubb is healthy (and it should be by bowl season), that's a lot for the Broncos to stop.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Georgia
Fiesta Bowl
26 of 39
Dec. 31, Glendale, Arizona: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: UCLA vs. Ohio State
This has the potential to be the best non-playoff bowl of the year. Ohio State and UCLA appear to be playing their best football at season's end.
On a fast track indoors, expect some big plays and a lot of points. The difference should be the Buckeyes defensive line, which will have to slow down Bruins running back Paul Perkins. What UCLA's defense was able to do to USC's offense in a 38-20 win in Week 13 was impressive, but give me Ohio State coach Urban Meyer with a month to prepare.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Orange Bowl
27 of 39
Dec. 31, Miami: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Predicted Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State
Georgia Tech's triple-option yields, obviously, one of the best rushing attacks in the country, but quarterback Justin Thomas has also had success in the passing game (1,396 yards, 15 touchdowns, four interceptions). Mississippi State's defense gives up a lot of yards—400 a game—but allows only 18 points per game.
These are two different running attacks, but between quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson, Mississippi State is able to get it done.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Mississippi State
Outback Bowl
28 of 39
Jan. 1, Tampa, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Minnesota vs. Ole Miss
Things have started to unravel for Ole Miss. The defense is still playing well enough to win, but putting up a goose egg against Arkansas shows just how bad things are at the moment. With Laquon Treadwell out with a season-ending leg injury, things aren't getting better overnight.
If Gophers running back David Cobb can have a big day, Minnesota might have enough to squeak by.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Minnesota
Cotton Bowl
29 of 39
Jan. 1, Arlington, Texas: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: TCU vs. Michigan State
Like points? You'll probably like the Cotton Bowl with two offenses that, combined, average 44 points per game. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin can be the most dynamic player on the field.
However, the Spartans have been in two big games this season against Oregon and Ohio State. Both were shootouts, with the Ducks and Buckeyes scoring 46 and 49 points, respectively. Michigan State lost both games.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: TCU
Citrus Bowl
30 of 39
Jan. 1, Orlando, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Missouri
If you like good ol' ground-and-pound offenses, you'll probably want to tune in to the Citrus Bowl. Running back Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin has eclipsed 2,000 yards and is the cornerstone of the Badgers offense.
It's difficult to figure out what to make of the Tigers, who have quietly closed in on 10 wins but have two egregious losses to Indiana and Georgia. Stopping Gordon has been difficult—bordering on impossible—though Missouri has done a decent job of slowing the run.
The question is whether Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk can play mistake-free football.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Rose Bowl
31 of 39
Jan. 1, Pasadena, California: CFP No. 2 vs. CFP No. 3
Predicted Matchup: Oregon vs. Florida State
The Seminoles survived another scare, this time against Boston College. Florida State has found a better running game with freshman Dalvin Cook, but most of its production has been through the air. Oregon's defense tends to be of the bend-don't-break variety, so can tight end Nick O'Leary and receiver Rashad Greene be the necessary red-zone weapons for Florida State?
The theme for Florida State has been slow starts but strong finishes. That's good enough to get the Seminoles into the playoff provided they finish undefeated.
"We're undefeated. We finish every game," said head coach Jimbo Fisher (via Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel). "Everybody else in the country has not finished at least one game. We've finished every one of them. Isn't that the object?"
If Oregon starts piling up points, can Florida State recover again, though?
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Oregon
Sugar Bowl
32 of 39
Jan. 1, New Orleans: CFP No. 1 vs. CFP No. 4
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Baylor
As far as Alabama is concerned, the Tide have to win two more games and they're in. The final playoff spot could go to Baylor, which would have a head-to-head win over TCU.
This is a game with offense written all over it. The defensive fronts for both teams are athletic, but secondary play could be an issue. Between Baylor's wide receivers and Alabama's Amari Cooper, there's a lot of future NFL talent in the receiving game. In the end, Alabama's defense is about a full touchdown better in points allowed per game.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Armed Forces Bowl
33 of 39
Jan. 2, Fort Worth, Texas: American Athletic vs. Army
Predicted Matchup: Houston vs. Cal
You wouldn't expect Houston, a historically offensive team, to have a defense that allows just under 19 points per game, but the Cougars have been excellent on that side of the ball.
Cal, on the other hand, is awful on defense and is last in the country against the pass. Houston will pick up yards through the air and make enough stops to pull out a win.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Houston
TaxSlayer Bowl
34 of 39
Jan. 2, Jacksonville, Florida: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Auburn vs. Maryland
Maryland's rush defense is one of the worst in the Big Ten at 4.51 yards per carry allowed. The bad news for the Terps is that Auburn is first in the SEC in rushing offense. With quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Cameron Artis-Payne carrying the rock for the Tigers, this smells like a blowout.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Auburn
Alamo Bowl
35 of 39
Jan. 2, San Antonio: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
The look of Oklahoma's offense could depend on whether quarterback Trevor Knight is able to return from an apparent neck injury or if he's shut down for the year. Either way, the Sooners are best when handing off to freshman power back Samaje Perine.
Can Oklahoma slow down Arizona's high-powered, balanced offense? Sun Devils receiver Jaelen Strong is a difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Arizona State
Cactus Bowl
36 of 39
Jan. 2, Tempe, Arizona: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Temple vs. Washington
Washington is third in the country with 3.67 sacks per game. Is Temple's offense up to the task? The Owls aren't exactly what you'd call explosive on offense, so this seems like a bad matchup. The Huskies have their own kinks to work out on offense, but this one seems lopsided.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Washington
Birmingham Bowl
37 of 39
Jan. 3, Birmingham, Alabama: SEC vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: Tennessee vs. Cincinnati
Both teams have excellent passing games, but Tennessee has had a horrible time trying to protect its quarterback. Cincinnati ranks first in the American Athletic Conference in sacks per game (2.7). The key is whether the Volunteers are able to improve up front with the 15 additional practices before bowl season.
In the end, Tennessee has a lot of young talent that's going to be the difference.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Tennessee
GoDaddy Bowl
38 of 39
Jan. 4, Mobile, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Both offenses run the ball well, averaging more than 200 yards on the ground each game. Statistically, in terms of strength, these are two teams that are about as even as you're going to get. We'll say Huskies quarterback Drew Hare, who has accounted for 19 touchdowns to just one interception, is the difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Northern Illinois
College Football Playoff Championship
39 of 39
Jan. 12, Arlington, Texas: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Oregon
Oregon is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging about 7.3 yards per play. However, Alabama has a defense that comes fairly close to cutting that number in half. Additionally, the Tide allow just 14.5 points per game.
Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota will be important, but not as important as the offense's ability to establish the run. Alabama's athletic defensive front seven is a tough unit to run against. If it's a close game, give me the Tide's power running game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
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